Sunday, December 9, 2018

London Chess Classic

The first round matches are Caruana-Nakamura and Aronian-MVL. They will play 2 classical games, 2 rapids, and 2 blitz. The forecasts below are for the classical portion of the match. Caruana has had a string a strong results, while Nakamura has struggled with poor form. The rating gap between them is nearly 100 points.

There is a roughly 51% chance that Caruana wins the 2 game match, 15% that Nakamura wins, and a 34% chance of a draw.

In the other match, MVL is the slight favorite. 32% chance of MVL winning, 26% of Aronian winning, and 42% chance of a tie.

Thursday, November 22, 2018

World Chess Championship - Game 10 update

Same as before: another pair of draws favors Carlsen, since he is better in the rapid tiebreaks. However, it is still more likely than not (60%) that we will see a decisive game in the classical portion of the match.

There will be a decisive game*

*With probability 0.749953

In the modern era, the draw rate has been about 66% in the World Championship. The draw model for the forecast is slightly different (see the methodology section). For this match, the model estimates a draw rate is 63%. So the probability that the last 3 games end in draws is 0.63^3, which is about 25%.

It is surprising that the first 9 games were drawn, but it is not impossible. The probability is 0.63^9, which works out to about 1.6%.

Monday, November 19, 2018

World Chess Championship - Round 8 update

Carlsen's chances continue to improve. After another pair of draws, a rapid tiebreak becomes more likely. As before, the percentages in the total column don't sum to 100% because it is possible that the match is still tied after the 4 rapid and 10 blitz games are played.

Friday, November 16, 2018

World Championship - Round 6 update

Carlsen's overall chances edged upward after another pair of draws. That's because the rapid tiebreaks favor him.

Tuesday, November 13, 2018

Monday, November 12, 2018

World Chess Championship - Game 2 update

Carlsen's chances have improved slightly. After 2 draws, a rapid tiebreak becomes a bit more likely. Of course, Carlsen is the favorite in the tiebreaks.