2014 Norway Chess Tournament - Final results

Congratulations to Karjakin, who won the tournament by defeating Caruana in the last round. Adgestein succumbed to Carlsen but still had an excellent showing overall: 7 draws and 2 losses is very respectable considering that all his opponents were above 2750. Grischuk edged closer to 2800 with a victory over Kramnik while the remaining two games were fairly peaceful draws.

2014 Norway Chess Tournament - Round 8

Karjakin prevailed over Kramnik, taking the lead with one round to go.

Standings:

2014 Norway Chess Tournament - Round 7

Karjakin joined the leaders after a long victory over Giri. The next few rounds will be very tense, as there are now 4 players in first place. Also, there is only 1 point separating first place from last place, so no one can be counted out of the race. Anything could happen, though some outcomes are more likely than others, as our latest forecast indicates:

Though Agdestein almost certainly won't win the tournament, he has performed admirably so far. He has yet to lose a game despite being heavily out-rated by his opponents.

2014 Norway Chess Tournament - Round 6

Topalov recovered today by beating Kramnik. The rest of the games were drawn, so now Kramnik shares first with Carlsen and Caruana.

2014 Norway Chess Tournament - Round 5

Kramnik leapfrogged Caruana in the standings today. Carlsen scored his first win, triumphing over Aronian. The last decisive game was Giri's victory over Topalov. Topalov seems to be struggling lately; in this tournament as well as in the Candidates, he has excellent opening preparation but then loses his thread in the middlegame. In my ignorant, 1900-player opinion, he may be spending too much effort on opening training. The latest forecast, based on 20,000 simulations:

Currently Kramnik is in the lead.

2014 Norway Chess Tournament - Round 4

Caruana's chances continue to climb: one his pursuers, Grischuk, lost today. The latest forecast:

Standings:

2014 Norway Chess Tournament - Round 3

Caruana maintained his lead by drawing Carlsen - an important game. Grischuk defeated Aronian and Giri succumbed to Kramnik.

2014 Norway Chess Tournament - Round 2

Caruana wins again and is now the favorite to win the tournament. Grischuk rebounded from his round 1 loss by beating Topalov, while Aronian boosted his chances with a win over Karjakin.

Standings after 2 rounds:

Today I had the opportunity to continue working on the model's draw rate assumptions. The tentative result that d4 and c4 were more drawish than e4 remained, but there was a big surprise on another front. Last time I reported that the draw rate was not increasing over time, leading to the conclusion that chess was not being "played out." But strangely enough, when the year that a game was played in is multiplied by a player's rating, it is significant in predicting if the game is drawn! So I don't have a clear-cut answer on whether draws are becoming more or less likely over time - it seems to also interact with the players' ratings in ways we don't yet understand.

2014 Norway Chess Tournament - Round 1

Caruana's chances soared today as he beat Grischuk. The rest of the games were drawn.

2014 Norway Chess Tournament

The 2014 Norway Chess Tournament features much of the world elite: Carlsen, Aronian, Kramnik, and several other top 10 players. Naturally, Carlsen is the favorite, but the competition is so strong that he probably won't win clear first place.

I have recently been working on the model's draw rate assumptions. For this tournament, it won't matter very much; in classical games between 2700 players, the draw rate is fairly stable around 60% - 64% unless there is a large rating gap. The project is not done yet, but there are a few preliminary results:

-1.d4 really is safer than 1.e4. All else equal, the draw rate in 1.d4 games is 2% higher than for 1.e4. An even safer choice is 1.c4 (3% more likely to end in a draw than 1.e4). Irregular openings are just as likely to end in a draw as 1.e4.

-Chess is not being exhausted: the draw rate is not rising over time after the players' ratings are accounted for.

These conclusions have seemed fairly stable as I have experimented with different draw rate models, but it is quite possible that a more thorough investigation will overturn them.