London Chess Classic

The first round matches are Caruana-Nakamura and Aronian-MVL. They will play 2 classical games, 2 rapids, and 2 blitz. The forecasts below are for the classical portion of the match. Caruana has had a string a strong results, while Nakamura has struggled with poor form. The rating gap between them is nearly 100 points.

There is a roughly 51% chance that Caruana wins the 2 game match, 15% that Nakamura wins, and a 34% chance of a draw.

In the other match, MVL is the slight favorite. 32% chance of MVL winning, 26% of Aronian winning, and 42% chance of a tie.

World Chess Championship - Game 10 update

Same as before: another pair of draws favors Carlsen, since he is better in the rapid tiebreaks. However, it is still more likely than not (60%) that we will see a decisive game in the classical portion of the match.

There will be a decisive game*

*With probability 0.749953

In the modern era, the draw rate has been about 66% in the World Championship. The draw model for the forecast is slightly different (see the methodology section). For this match, the model estimates a draw rate is 63%. So the probability that the last 3 games end in draws is 0.63^3, which is about 25%.

It is surprising that the first 9 games were drawn, but it is not impossible. The probability is 0.63^9, which works out to about 1.6%.

World Chess Championship - Round 8 update

Carlsen's chances continue to improve. After another pair of draws, a rapid tiebreak becomes more likely. As before, the percentages in the total column don't sum to 100% because it is possible that the match is still tied after the 4 rapid and 10 blitz games are played.

World Championship - Round 6 update

Carlsen's overall chances edged upward after another pair of draws. That's because the rapid tiebreaks favor him.

World Chess Championship - Round 4 update

The probabilities did not change much after another pair of draws

World Chess Championship - Game 2 update

Carlsen's chances have improved slightly. After 2 draws, a rapid tiebreak becomes a bit more likely. Of course, Carlsen is the favorite in the tiebreaks.

World Championship forecast: accounting for the rapid tiebreaks

The forecast for the 12 game match is:

If it ends in a draw, there will be 4 rapid tiebreak games. While rapid tournaments are becoming increasingly common, they are still very much in the minority. So the rapid forecast is based on a much smaller sample. With an ordered logit, I estimated the draw rate to be about 44%. That is in line with the draw rate in the Paris and Leuven rapid events in the Grand Chess Tour.

In rapids, Carlsen is well ahead of Caruana. The champion's rapid rating is 2880; the challenger stands at 2789. Many people have stated that Carlsen is the huge favorite in the tiebreaks. They're right, but Carlsen's chances might not be as great as they think:

Rapid Tiebreaker

Carlsen's chances of winning the rapids are only about 2 in 3! I expected that his chances would be higher than that. Here's why an upset is possible: (1) There are only 4 games in the tiebreaker. Upsets are more likely in shorter matches. (2) The draw rate is lower than in classical. Upsets are more likely to happen when the draw rate is small. Both of these reasons were explained in my recent ChessBase article.

If the match is still tied after the 4 rapid games have been played, it goes to blitz. If the first 2-game blitz match fails to crown a champion, another pair of blitz games follows. This can continue until 5 blitz matches have been played. Though Caruana has a real chance of surviving the rapids, blitz is another story. Carlsen's blitz rating is 172 points higher. 

Blitz: 2-game tiebreak match

Putting it all together:

The percentages in the total column don't sum to 100%. That's because there is a tiny chance that the players will still be tied after 5 blitz matches.

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Shenzen 2018

The tournament is a round robin with 6 top players. Ding Liren has climbed up to #4 in the world. How long can he maintain his unbeaten streak? My forecast for the tournament:

An updated forecast for the world champion will be up soon

Hoogeveen Matches

There will be two 6-game matches at the Hoogeveen Chess Tournament. US Champ Sam Shankland will take on Peter Svidler while Fedoseev will play against Van Foreest.

World Championship forecast

Magnus Carlsen shed a few more points. However, he would be the heavy favorite in the rapid tiebreaks.

Olympiad and World Championship forecast

Caruana gained 5 points at the Olympiad. Now he is just 7 points behind Carlsen.

2018 Sinquefield Cup and World Championship forecast

Carlsen, Caruana, and Aronian tied for 1st in the Sinquefield Cup. As a result, the gap between the Champion and the Challenger narrowed to just 12 rating points.

2018 Sinquefield Cup

Carlsen and Caruana will be playing in the Sinquefield Cup; their game is certainly one that will be watched closely. Carlsen remains the favorite. However, Caruana has been narrowing the gap between them. Given that Carlsen dropped some rating points in Biel, it's conceivable - though unlikely - that Caruana could overtake him.

Biel and forecast update for the World Championship

Mamedyarov won convincingly in Biel. Carlsen finished second and shed some rating points. He is just 14 points ahead of Caruana in the live ratings. However, Caruana is much worse in rapid and blitz, so it is almost as if Carlsen has draw odds. As I have cautioned earlier, it's difficult to predict the rapid tiebreaks. There are far fewer rapid games in my database; as a result, there is more uncertainty about the draw rate.

Danzhou 2018

It looks like the tournament will be an 8-player round robin. I think Shankland is the player to watch. He won the US Championship ahead of Caruana, So, and Nakamura; then he continued to gain points. Can he keep it up? If so, American players will start talking about "The Big Four" instead of  "The Big Three." Our forecast:

Biel 2018

The Biel tournament starts soon. The World Champion is the top seed in this 6-player double round robin.

Usually I conclude with a link to the methodology paper, but instead I have pinned that link to the "About Me" section of the blog.

"Is Your Opponent Underrated?" methodology

The complete list of tournaments used in the sample:

Atlantic Open 2017 (U2100, U1900, U1700, U1500)
Bradley Open 2017 (U2100, U1800, U1500)
Cherry Blossom Classic 2018 (U2200, U1900, U1600)
Chesapeake Bay Open 2018 (U2200, U1800, U1600)
Chicago Open 2018 (U2300, U1900, U1700, U1500)
Chicago Class 2017 (Expert, A, B, C)
National Chess Congress 2017 (U2200, U2000, U1800, U1600, U1400)
Continental Open 2017 (U2100, U1900, U1700, U1500)
US Amateur East Individual 2018 (U2200, U1800, U1400)
Eastern Class 2018 (Expert, A, B, C)
Eastern Chess Congress 2017 (U2100, U1900, U1700, U1500)
Evans Memorial 2017 (Expert, A, B, C)
George Washington Open 2017 (U2100, U1800, U1500)
Kings Island Open 2017 (U2100, U1900, U1700, U1500)
Liberty Bell Open 2018 (U2100, U1900, U1700, U1500)
Manhattan Open 2017 (U2200, U2000, U1800, U1600, U1400)
National Open 2017 (U2300, U2100, U1900, U1700, U1500)
North American Open 2017 (U2300, U2100, U1900, U1700, U1500)
North Eastern Open 2017 (U2050, U1650)
Pacific Coast Open 2017 (U2100, U1900, U1700, U1500)
Pan-American Intercollegiate 2017
Philadelphia Open 2018 (U2200, U2000, U1800, U1600, U1400)
Potomac Open 2017 (U2300, U2100, U1900, U1700, U1500)
Southern Open 2017 (U2100, U1800, U1500)
Southwestern Class 2018 (Expert, A, B, C)
US Amateur Team North 2018
US Open 2017
World Open 2017 (U2200, U2000, U1800, U1600)
World Amateur Team 2017

Total = 22,828 games
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You can see that I often dropped the open section. Why is that? I notice that GMs and IMs frequently travel to large tournaments, so their opponents come from all over the country. Thus, their ratings will  probably not be affected by local inflation or deflation. Regional differences in ratings will only be detected among players who compete primarily in local tournaments, as explained in the article. I typically dropped the bottom sections of the tournaments, since ratings are very volatile at those levels.

Define the "elo residual" to be (actual score - expected score). Let "D" be (player A's rating - player B's rating), i.e., the difference in the ratings. Then Player A's expected score against Player B is:

This comes from Section 4.2 of "The US Chess Rating System" by Glickman and Doan (April 24, 2017) Link to the description of the USCF rating system

Example: In the article, I said that a 1700's expected score against a 1500 is about 0.75. Let's suppose that the 1700 won the game. In that case, his actual score is 1. Therefore, his Elo residual = actual score - expected score = 1 - 0.75 = 0.25. We can say that the 1700 scored 0.25 more points than expected. On average, the Elo residual is zero.

This brings us to a crucial idea. If a player is truly underrated, then he should score better than his rating indicates when he goes to a national tournament. In other words, his Elo residual should be positive. If players from a certain state consistently have positive Elo residuals, then that state is underrated.

I created dummy variables for all 50 states, British Columbia, Ontario, and "other" (for foreign players). For Player A, the dummy variable for a state equals 1 if Player A is from that state. If Player A's opponent is from that state, then the dummy equals -1. Exception: if both players are from the same state, then the dummy is zero. In all other cases, the dummy is zero.

Example: Suppose that Player A is from Montana. He faces an opponent from Kansas. The dummy variable for Montana equals 1. The dummy variable for Kansas is -1. The dummy variables for all the other states are 0.

The first step would be to estimate a linear regression of the following form:

Elo residual =  (BetaAlabama)(Alabama dummy) + (BetaAlaska)(Alaska dummy) + (BetaArizona)(Arizona dummy)+ ... + epsilon

Here, "BetaAlabama" is the coefficient on the Alabama dummy; that is what the model is trying to estimate. If Alabama players are underrated, then "BetaAlabama" will be positive. That's because when "BetaAlabama" is positive, then Alabama players have positive Elo residuals, which means that they outperform their ratings. It also means that players facing an Alabama opponent will tend to underperform. "BetaAlaska" is the coefficient on the Alaska dummy, "BetaArizona" is the coefficient on the Arizona dummy, and so on for all the other states. As usual, epsilon is the disturbance term.

However, there is one issue with this approach. Consider someone who plays 9 games in the US Open. Each game is one observation in my sample. However, those observations might not be independent, which can lead to - how do I say this in plain English? - let's say it leads to problems. If you don't have a stats background and you have read this far, I admire your persistence and curiosity. Unfortunately, the rest of this article isn't going to make much sense if you haven't taken - at the very least - an advanced undergrad course in stats. Preferably a graduate level course.

To correct for these issues, I can insert fixed effects or random effects for each player in each tournament.

Delta is the intercept and alpha_i is the fixed or random effects term for player i. EloResidual_ij is the Elo residual in the game between player i and player j. Due to multicollinearity, the dummy for "other" was dropped.

A Lagrange multiplier test soundly rejected the null of no random effects (test statistic = 279.13, p-value = 0.0000). Then I performed a Hausman test (test statistic = 43.87, p-value = 0.7164); the assumptions of the random effects model were not rejected. Therefore, I based my results on the random effects model.

One last issue. The coefficients in the model above are in terms of the Elo residual. E.g., the intercept plus the coefficient for Washington state was about 0.05, which means that Washington players tend to score 0.05 points more than their ratings would indicate.

In order to convert this into rating points, I took a first order Taylor series approximation of the expected score formula. The rating adjustment for state k is the following.

This transformation was also applied to the confidence intervals in order to generate the second graph.

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UPDATE: It looks like some of the graphs had to be cut from the original article. It's probably because the magazine was running out of space. The figures below show the 95% confidence intervals for each state. Here is an example of how to interpret them. Take the first state, Alabama (AL). Our best estimate is that their players are underrated by about 30 points. However, they could be anywhere from 10 points overrated to as much as 70 points underrated. There is a fair amount of uncertainty with smaller states. That is because their sample sizes are small. I get a much bigger sample from states like California (CA), so their confidence interval is not so wide.

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UPDATE2: Due to a software upgrade, I can now estimate a nonlinear model with random effects.

Though this bypasses the need for a linear approximation, there are other challenges. A key assumption is that the random effects are uncorrelated with the regressors. In the linear model, I verified that with a Hausman test. That doesn't work for nonlinear models because the fixed effects estimator is not consistent. The results for the nonlinear model are in the graphs below, but be aware that they rest on an assumption that I haven't been able to test.

Methodology

Links to all the nerd stuff:

MinStrength Methodology

Methodology for "Is Your Opponent Underrated?"

How the forecasts are generated (before May 2022)

Revised Methodology (May 2022)

Methodology for my Chess Life article "Reforming the Candidates Cycle"

Bonus material to "Reforming the Candidates Cycle" In order to save space, some interesting parts had to be cut.

World Championship Forecast Update

The Norway Tournament began badly for Fabi fans; he lost to Magnus Carlsen. But then Carlsen lost to So and Caruana surpassed him in the end. The rating gap narrowed slightly, so a new forecast is in order:

Methodology

In other news, Jakovenko won the Poikovsky Karpov tournament. I first became a Jakovenko fan when I was studying the 6.Be2 Najdorf; he won a number of instructive games with the White pieces in that line. Gelfand returned to the 2700 club.

Rook endings at the Chicago Open

Improvement is possible. E4stat spent a decade in Class A, but finally became an expert in 2016. Then at the 2018 Chicago Open, I crossed the 2100 threshold. Today's lesson is about two instructive rook endings from the tournament. You may have read about the Lucena position, but do you really know it? Could you still win against a different defense that tries to stop you from building the bridge? Unfortunately, my opponent did. Later in Round 6, I was tested on the famous Alekhine-Capablanca ending. If you are unaware of that game, click here! Or look it up in Alexander Alekhine's "My Best Games of Chess" to see it with his annotations.

If the games are not displaying properly, click here

[Event "Chicago Open"] [Site "Wheeling"] [Date "2018.05.26"] [Round "2"] [White "Wilson, Matthew"] [Black "Eckert, FM Doug"] [Result "0-1"] [ECO "C95"] [WhiteElo "2093"] [BlackElo "2238"] [Annotator "Wilson,Matthew"] [SetUp "1"] [FEN "R7/8/8/8/3pk3/4r1p1/6K1/8 b - - 0 62"] [PlyCount "43"] 62... d3 $6 {Black is still winning after this move, but it does allow White to prolong the battle.} 63. Rd8 $1 { Black is in zugzwang! But the FM doesn't lose his cool.} Re2+ 64. Kxg3 Ke3 { Heading for the Lucena position, an endgame that you must know if you're serious about chess.} 65. Re8+ Kd2 66. Rd8 Re7 67. Kf3 Rf7+ 68. Kg3 (68. Ke4 Ke2 69. Rxd3 Re7+ $1 70. Kd4 Rd7+ {wins the rook}) 68... Rf6 {Black would like to park the rook on f5 in order to build the famous Lucena bridge. The reason that I played 68.Kg3 was to kick the rook away with Kg4 if it ever came to f5. So instead Black puts the rook on f6, but that's too far away for his construction plans to work.} 69. Rd7 Ke2 70. Re7+ Kd1 71. Rd7 d2 72. Rc7 Rf5 73. Rc8 ({If White tries to sabotage the bridge with} 73. Kg4 {, then} Rf1 $1 { wins easily.} 74. Kg3 Ke2 75. Re7+ Kd3 76. Rd7+ Kc3 77. Rc7+ Kb4 { and the checks are certainly not perpetual. So I tried a different plan.}) 73... Ke2 74. Re8+ Kd3 75. Rd8+ Ke3 76. Rd7 (76. Re8+ Kd4 77. Rd8+ Rd5 { is the key idea in the Lucena. Instead, I keep my rook on the d-file, since the pawn is not threatening to promote at this moment.}) 76... Rg5+ $1 { Pushing my king back.} 77. Kh3 Ke2 78. Re7+ Kf3 {Threatening mate and promotion } 79. Rf7+ $1 {Foiling Black's plan, but he has other ways to win} Ke2 80. Re7+ Kd1 81. Rc7 { Or else 81...Rc5 followed by 82...Kc1 and Black wins without any difficulties} Re5 (81... Rg1 82. Kh2 Re1 83. Kg2 Ke2 84. Re7+ Kd3 85. Rd7+ Kc3 86. Rc7+ Kb4 { is also good enough. White quickly runs out of checks}) 82. Kg3 Ke1 83. Kf4 Re8 ({Ending my last hope. After} 83... d1=Q 84. Kxe5 { I could test if he knew how to win queen vs. rook}) 0-1

This is the game that pushed me over the 2100 barrier: a win against a National Master.

[Event "Chicago Open"] [Site "Wheeling"] [Date "2018.05.28"] [Round "6"] [White "Wilson, Matthew"] [Black "Shanmugasundaram, NM Raj"] [Result "1-0"] [ECO "B45"] [WhiteElo "2093"] [BlackElo "2283"] [Annotator "Wilson,Matthew"] [SetUp "1"] [FEN "6k1/3n1p2/p1r5/5bp1/2B5/PP3P2/1B1R1KP1/8 w - - 0 38"] [PlyCount "67"] {My clock ticked down to 12 seconds. I went for the combination.} 38. g4 $1 (38. Rd5 Rc5 { is less convincing}) 38... Be6 39. Bxe6 fxe6 40. Rxd7 Rc2+ 41. Ke3 Rxb2 42. Rd3 {The dust has settled after the time scramble. I was quite confident here. I'm up a pawn. I don't have any weaknesses, but Black does.} Kf7 43. b4 {I had vague ideas of Rd3-d6xa6, but those variations never seem to work. 43.Kd4 was simpler, but Stockfish thinks the two moves are about equally good.} a5 { White threatens to raid the queenside, so Black figures that it's better to trade his a-pawn than it is to risk losing it for nothing.} (43... Kf6 44. Kd4 Rc2 45. Rc3 Rf2 {If Black trades rooks, then he loses the pawn ending, even if he inserts 45...e5+ first} (45... Rd2+ 46. Kc5 Ke5 47. a4 $1 {is similar}) 46. a4 $1 Ra2 47. a5 Rf2 48. Kc5 Ke5 { Here my notes continue with 49.Kb6, which is good enough, but Stockfish's} 49. b5 $1 {wins easily}) (43... Ke7 44. Kd4 Kd6 $4 {falls into an unusual trap:} 45. Kc3+ $1) 44. bxa5 Rb5 45. a4 $1 ({Maybe} 45. a6 Ra5 46. Rd6 {also works, but I was nearly certain that the text was winning. Know your classics! After.. .}) 45... Rxa5 46. Ra3 {...White has an improved version of the famous Alekhine-Capablanca ending. Unlike in that game, here White can create a second passer and Black's pawns are more vulnerable.} Ke7 47. Kd4 Kd6 48. Kc4 Re5 (48... Kc6 49. Kb4 Kb6 50. Re3 $1 ({During the game, I was planning on} 50. Rd3 {, but then} Re5 {and the rook has found the ideal defensive post}) 50... e5 51. Rd3 $1 {and Black collapses}) 49. a5 Kc7 (49... Rc5+ 50. Kd4 Rc7 51. a6 Ra7 52. Ra5 Ke7 53. Ke5 {Zugzwang!}) 50. a6 Kb8 51. Kd4 {My original intention was to insert 51.a7+ Ka8 here. However, in some lines, White can benefit from keeping the pawn safe on a6, where it doesn't have to be defended. E.g., 51. Kd4 Re1 52.Re3 and it will take Black's king two tempi to snap up the pawn.} Rd5+ 52. Ke4 Rb5 {Stockfish announces mate in 43!} (52... Ka7 53. f4 gxf4 54. Kxf4 {White will simply march the g-pawn up the board. There isn't much that Black can do about it.}) 53. Ra4 Rb1 (53... e5 54. Kf5 Ka7 55. Kxg5 e4+ 56. Kf4 $18) 54. Ke5 Re1+ 55. Kf6 Re3 56. Kxg5 Rxf3 57. Re4 $1 {The rest is straightforward, even with just a minute left on my clock (there was a 10 second delay)} Kc7 58. Rxe6 Kd7 59. Rf6 Ra3 60. Kg6 Ke8 61. g5 Ra5 62. Kh6 Ke7 63. Rb6 Ra1 64. g6 Rh1+ 65. Kg7 Ra1 66. Kh7 Rh1+ 67. Kg8 Rc1 68. g7 Rc2 69. a7 Ra2 70. Kh7 Rh2+ 71. Rh6 1-0

Norway Chess Tournament 2018 and Poikovsky Karpov Tournament

There is a lot to watch for in the Norway Chess Tournament. Carlsen and Caruana are both playing, giving us a preview of their upcoming match. Anand finds himself in the unfamiliar position of being the bottom seed. Will he return to the top 10?

The Poikovsky Karpov tournament features a strong field with 5 members of the 2700 club. Gelfand no longer belongs to that group - will he stage a comeback? Nepomniachtchi is occasionally found in the top 10 lists. It's not impossible for him to return, but he would have to score very well for that to happen in this tournament.

Methodology

2018 Summer Classic

Another strong round robin in St. Louis. All 10 players in the A group are 2600+.

Methodology

E4stat vs. chess prodigy

Earlier this month, e4stat played in the 2nd Haymarket Memorial tournament in Chicago. In Round 1, I faced Yuvraj Chennareddy. You will probably hear a lot more about him in the future. He is currently America's top 7 year old chess player - his rating is already in the low 1800s! I don't think I saw his best chess that day. However, on the note to move 26, we catch a glimpse of his great potential. Here I try to explain all the little details that go into converting an extra Exchange. If the games are not displaying properly, click here

[Event "2nd Haymarket Memorial"] [Site "Chicago"] [Date "2018.05.05"] [Round "1"] [White "Wilson, Matthew"] [Black "Chennareddy, Yuvraj"] [Result "1-0"] [ECO "C83"] [WhiteElo "2083"] [BlackElo "1808"] [Annotator "Wilson,Matthew"] [PlyCount "91"] 1. e4 e5 2. Nf3 Nc6 3. Bb5 a6 4. Ba4 Nf6 5. O-O Nxe4 6. d4 b5 7. Bb3 d5 8. dxe5 Be6 9. c3 Be7 10. Nbd2 O-O 11. Re1 {The move order has been altered in order to conceal one of e4stat's opening surprises :)} Nxd2 12. Qxd2 { I thought that I had no advantage here, but the computer still believes in my position. This recapture looks awkward, but it does keep an eye on ...d5-d4 and in a few moves, White's queen and bishop will untangle by using a typical idea.} Na5 13. Bc2 Nc4 14. Qd3 g6 15. b3 Nb6 (15... Na3 $5 {looks suspicious, but neither the computer nor I can find a way trap the piece. But the Black knight causes disruption, so I should have played 15.Nd4 (Stockfish's suggestion) instead of 15.b3.}) 16. Bh6 c5 $2 {After the game, I asked him why he didn't save the rook. He said he thought his queenside majority would offer enough compensation. But clearly Black doesn't have to sacrifice in order to push his queenside pawns.} 17. Bxf8 Bxf8 18. Qe3 $1 {I like this move. Black got a bishop for a rook, so let's make sure that the bishop never gets active.} Qc7 ({This is not a great square for the queen. My notes suggest 18...Qd7, which would support ...d5-d4. Stockfish prefers} 18... Be7 { , which would stop the move I played in the game.}) 19. Ng5 { Preparing f2-f4 to advance my majority} Rd8 20. Rad1 Be7 (20... a5 { - a plan that Black will try later - should have been played here.}) 21. Qg3 { Preparing f2-f4 without allowing Black to damage my kingside majority.} ({ I had rejected} 21. Nxe6 fxe6 {since it would make it tougher to play f2-f4-f5. However, it does weaken Black's defenses against h2-h4-h5 and White can exploit that immediately:} 22. h4 $1 {. The pawn is immune:} Bxh4 $4 23. Qh3 $1 Qe7 24. g3 Bg5 25. f4 {traps the bishop. But 21.Qg3 is also fine.}) 21... Bxg5 {White was threatening 22.Nxe6 fxe6 23.Bxg6! hxg6 24.Qxg6+ Kf8 25.Rd3!} 22. Qxg5 Re8 (22... d4 23. cxd4 cxd4 24. Qh4 {and the d4-pawn is feeling the heat}) (22... a5 { logically prepares to create a passer with ...b5-b4, but it's too slow:} 23. f4 $1 Kh8 24. f5 $1 {etc. So instead Black prepares a queen trade.}) 23. f4 Qe7 ({ Black would like to advance with} 23... d4 $2 {, but it just doesn't work:} 24. f5 $1 Bxf5 25. Bxf5 Rxe5 26. Rxe5 Qxe5 27. Qd8+ $1) 24. Qxe7 ({I considered} 24. Qg3 {followed by a kingside attack. But Black can simply respond with} Kh8 {. If White persists with} 25. Rf1 {, then} Rg8 {and now White should not be eager to open up the g-file. Trading queens is best. Rooks shine in the endgame and once the queens are gone, White can advance his kingside majority.} ) 24... Rxe7 25. Rd2 {I soon regretted this move, but it's not bad. My idea was Bc2-d1-f3, transferring the bishop to a square where it would support g2-g4 and also hit d5. In addition, White can double rooks on the d-file. But this plan is too slow. Though my concept was wrong, the move is still okay because we will see later that the rook has some uses on the 2nd rank.} ({ After the game, I proposed} 25. b4 {, preventing the plan that Black starts on his next move. However, it does concede the c4-square.} cxb4 26. cxb4 Rc7 ( 26... Nc4 27. g4 $1) 27. Bb3 {(or else ...Rc4)} Nc4 28. Rd4 (28. g4 {is not as effective now, since with the White bishop on b3, I'm not ready to play f4-f5}) 28... h5 29. g3 {. White will gradually prepare h2-h3, g3-g4, and f4-f5 and there isn't much that Black can do about it. Objectively, it's not any better than what I did in the game, but this is a much easier path to victory.}) 25... a5 {Black intends ...b4 cxb4 ...axb4, creating a passed d-pawn. If White doesn't do something, then ...d4 and ...Nd5 could appear on the board as well.} 26. h3 ({I would like to stop his plan with} 26. a3 {, but after} a4 { Black gets the c4-square for his knight. Then Rd2 would look very foolish.}) 26... Bf5 ({After the game, I asked him why he didn't play} 26... h5 { . He showed me an impressive idea that I completely missed:} 27. g4 $1 hxg4 28. hxg4 Bxg4 29. Rg2 Bh5 30. f5 {and apparently he concluded that White gets more than enough play for the pawn sacrifice. It took a lot of analysis to prove it, but the kid's instincts were right on the money! Amazing talent.} Kh7 (30... Nd7 31. e6 fxe6 (31... Nf8 32. exf7+ Rxf7 (32... Kxf7 33. fxg6+ {drops material }) 33. fxg6 Rf6 (33... Rg7 34. Re8 $1 {followed by Rf2 wins a piece}) 34. g7 $1 Ng6 {(or else Bh7+!)} 35. Re5 $1 Nxe5 36. Bh7+ $1 {and the pawn promotes}) 32. fxe6 (32. Rxe6 Rxe6 33. fxe6 {is less effective since Black can play} Ne5) 32... Nf8 33. Re5 $1 Kh8 34. Rxd5 Nxe6 35. Re5 $1 {and Black is paralyzed}) ( 30... Bf3 31. Rg3 Be4 32. Bxe4 Rxe5 33. fxg6 dxe4 34. Rf1 $1 f5 35. Rg5 { is a variation from Stockfish. White quickly scoops up the loose pawns on the 5th rank}) 31. e6 b4 (31... Nc8 {and now Stockfish's} 32. Re3 $1 { , intending Rh3! is even stronger than 32.Re5 (the move in my notes)}) (31... fxe6 32. f6 $1 Re8 33. f7 {followed by Rxe6}) ({(trying to stop f5-f6)} 31... Kg7 32. Rf1 $1 f6 33. Bd1 $1 {and Black's kingside collapses}) (31... gxf5 32. Kf2 $3 {White threatens to win the bishop with Rh1. I actually found this beautiful idea on my own without the computer!} Bg6 33. exf7 Rxf7 34. Re6 $1) 32. cxb4 axb4 33. Re3 {(Stockfish). The idea is similar to the 31...gxf5 32. Kf2 line: bring the rook to the h-file and exploit tactics against Black's bishop.} 33... Kg7 34. Rh3 Kf6 35. exf7 Kxf7 36. fxg6+ {and White wins. Even though 26...h5 loses, he should have tried it since it would have required me to find some ideas that are difficult to see. After the move he played in the game, the hard part is over.}) 27. g4 (27. Bxf5 gxf5 28. g4 { was also appealing, but then Black would still have ...b5-b4 ideas}) 27... Bxc2 28. Rxc2 b4 $2 {This does create a passed pawn, but it isn't going anywhere and the open c-file will be Black's downfall.} 29. cxb4 cxb4 30. Rc6 $1 Rb7 ({ Depressing, but} 30... Re6 31. Rxe6 fxe6 32. Rc1 d4 { (or else 33.Rc6! and the knight will never find activity)} 33. Rd1 Nd5 34. Rxd4 {was also hopeless}) 31. Rd1 {Stopping any counterplay from ...d5-d4 followed by ...Nd5. The rest is straightforward.} Kf8 32. Kf2 Ke7 33. Ke3 Kd7 34. Rd6+ Kc7 35. Rc1+ Kb8 36. Rcc6 Ka7 37. Kd4 Ka6 $2 { Losing a piece, but Black's position was already resignable.} 38. Kc5 d4 39. Rxb6+ Rxb6 40. Rxb6+ Ka7 41. Kc6 d3 42. Rb7+ Ka8 43. Kb6 d2 44. Rd7 d1=R 45. Rxd1 Kb8 46. Rd8# 1-0

In Round 2, a 2300 caught me with a weird tactic:

[Event "2nd Haymarket Memorial"] [Site "Chicago"] [Date "2018.05.05"] [Round "2"] [White "Menon, Gopal"] [Black "Wilson, Matthew"] [Result "1-0"] [ECO "B43"] [WhiteElo "2329"] [BlackElo "2083"] [Annotator "Wilson,Matthew"] [SetUp "1"] [FEN "2r1kb1r/1bq2ppp/pnnp1P2/1p2p1P1/4P3/PNN3QB/1PP4P/1KBR3R b k - 0 20"] [PlyCount "12"] 20... Rd8 {I knew that I was in trouble here} 21. Be3 { At the time, I thought that White should have traded on g7 first in order to open up the kingside. I quickly "punished" his "inaccuracy"} g6 $2 22. Bxb6 Qxb6 23. Nd5 { I was about to retreat to a7, but then I realized that 24.Nc7 was checkmate!} Nd4 24. Nxb6 Nxb3 25. Qxb3 Bxe4 26. Rhe1 1-0

Gopal went on to tie for 1st with 3.0/4. I finished the tournament with a win over a 2000 player, so my rating climbed to 2093.

World Championship - Forecast update

Carlsen gained rating points in the Gashimov Memorial. Meanwhile, Caruana climbed to 2822. The latest forecast for the World Championship is based on their new ratings:

Methodology

E4stat visits the US Chess Championship

Congratulations to Sam Shankland, 2018 US Chess Champion. He scored an extraordinary +6 against a very tough field and pushed his rating over 2700. He also made my forecast look bad. I visited rounds 10 and 11.

The star-studded lineup:

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Sam is about to clinch the championship here; he has a clearly winning position in Round 11 against Awonder Liang.

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Awonder in Round 10, pressing in his game against Izoria. Awonder scored drew all his games against the Big Three. Back in January, he won the Jane Addams Memorial with a perfect 4.0/4 (e4stat tied for 8th with 2.5/4). 

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This guy scored 2.5 points against the Big Three! 2600s are not to be underestimated. Here in Round 10, Izoria succumbed to Awonder Liang.

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The only 2700 player to survive against Izoria. After the first 2 games, he was in contention for the Fischer Prize (11-0), but he finished with a "Giri" (all draws).

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Wesley So in a very drawish rook ending against Robson in Round 10.

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Ray Robson in Round 10

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The next World Champion?

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In Round 10, Zherebukh went into a deep think after Caruana unleashed ...Bg4! A few moves later, Caruana avenged his loss from the 2017 US Championship.

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Onischuk had a tough tournament. In Round 10, Sam Shankland ground him down. Just one year ago, Onischuk tied for first with Wesley So but lost the playoff.

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I would not say that Nakamura slammed the clock. But when I was watching another game, I heard someone hit the clock with emphasis. I glanced over. Nakamura had just unleashed e5-e6! against Akobian.

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He was briefly in the lead, but Akobian fell apart later in the tournament. Here is his game against me in the Saturday Night Special

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The world's tallest chess piece, outside the World Chess Hall of Fame.

Gashimov Memorial and the US Chess Championship

The Gashimov Memorial begins soon; Magnus Carlsen will be there. The format is a 10-player round robin.

The US Championship (a 12-player round robin) is underway. Here is the forecast I posted earlier:

Methodology