Thursday, November 22, 2018

There will be a decisive game*

*With probability 0.749953

In the modern era, the draw rate has been about 66% in the World Championship. The draw model for the forecast is slightly different (see the methodology section). For this match, the model estimates a draw rate is 63%. So the probability that the last 3 games end in draws is 0.63^3, which is about 25%.

It is surprising that the first 9 games were drawn, but it is not impossible. The probability is 0.63^9, which works out to about 1.6%.

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