2015 Sinquefield Cup - Round 8

There was no forecast update for the previous few rounds, since e4stat was busy watching the games in person. It was thrilling to be in the same room as the best players in the world - especially after reading so much about them and following their games. More details to come later.

Round 7 will likely be called the decisive round. At the beginning, Carlsen and Aronian were tied for first. But then Aronian ground down Nakamura, while Carlsen fell to Grischuk. In the end, Aronian left with a full point lead. After Round 8 brought us 5 draws, no one can overtake him. There is a some chance of a tie, though that depends on Aronian losing to Topalov and one of the players on 4.5/7 scoring a victory.

Methodology

2015 Sinquefield Cup - Round 5

Topalov lost to Caruana and fell out of first place. Meanwhile, Carlsen continued his comeback and beat So. Currently Aronian and Carlsen are in the lead.

Methodology

2015 Sinquefield Cup - Round 4

Aronian won a nice game and joins Topalov at the top. Aronian used to be #2 in the world by a comfortable margin. In early 2014, his rating was 2830. But after a series of disappointing performances, his rating steadily declined; he even dropped out of the top 10. We will see if he can continue his comeback.

Methodology

2015 Sinquefield Cup - Round 3

Carlsen beat Vachier-Lagrave while Topalov drew Anand. Topalov continues to lead with 2.5/3.

Methodology

2015 Sinquefield Cup - Round 2

Topalov tops the field with 2.0/2 after another very exciting round. However, the model is surprisingly cautious about his winning chances. Even though he is in 2nd place on the live ratings and is currently in clear first in the tournament, there are still 7 rounds left to be played against very strong competition.

Methodology

2015 Sinquefield Cup - Round 1

Carlsen opened with a loss to Topalov, echoing the Norway Chess Tournament. All 5 games were decisive.

Methodology

2015 Sinquefield Cup

Round 1 is on Sunday. E4stat is excited to be able to watch some of the games live and in person. We won't be going this weekend (it's a lot of driving to see just one game), but next weekend is better. The forecast:

Methodology

2015 Russian Championship Superfinal - Round 11

The last round was a fairly peaceful one; the only decisive game was Lysyj - Artemiev, ending in a victory for the former Russian Champion. Tomashevsky maintained his half point lead and finished in clear first place.

2015 Russian Championship Superfinal - Round 10

Only Khismatullin won his game, so the top standings are unchanged. After a rocky start, Khismatullin has won 3 games in a row.

I've been going through the forecast archives to see how they have fared. One thing that jumps out at me is that Tomashevsky used to be one of the bottom seeds and Aronian used to be near the top - much has changed in just 1 year.

Methodology

2015 Russian Championship Superfinal - Round 9

Tomashevsky won his game and continues to lead. Karjakin also prevailed and trails by half a point.

Methodology

2015 Russian Championship Superfinal - Round 8

Only Khismatullin managed to win, so there is not much change in the standings.

Methodology

2015 Russian Championship Superfinal - Round 7

Tomashevsky won his game and is in sole first place. Meanwhile, Artemiev fell to Karjakin.

Methodology

2015 Russian Championship Superfinal - Round 6

Vitiugov joined Artemiev and Tomashevsky at the top.

Methodology

***

Meanwhile, some exciting new developments are coming soon to e4stat. The current forecasts do not account for whether a player has white or black; I am on the brink of being able to do that. There was just one last step to complete by the time I left the University of Oregon. Unfortunately, after leaving I no longer had access to their statistical software. In a few days, I'll be able to finish the project now that I can work on Truman State University's computers.

I have also been collecting data on how successful (or unsuccessful) my forecasts are. More discussion on that coming soon.

The Sinquefield Cup is a little more than a week away. St. Louis is close enough that I will get to watch some of the games in person. Pictures will be posted.

2015 Russian Championship Superfinal - Round 5

Artemiev and Tomashevsky continue to lead.

Methodology

2015 Russian Championship Superfinal - Round 4

Artemiev: the next Lysyj? You may recall the Lysyj was the surprise winner of last year's superfinal. In Round 4, little-known GM Artemiev won his game and is now tied for first with Tomashevsky. However, the model thinks that Tomashevsky is the favorite due to his higher rating.

Methodology

2015 Russian Championship Superfinal - Round 3

Tomashevsky takes the lead with a victory over Lysyj.

Methodology

2015 Russian Championship Superfinal - Round 2

Khairullen, Tomashevsky, and Vitiugov won today, joining Karjakin in 1st place.

Methodology

2015 Russian Championship Superfinal - Round 1

All of the games were drawn, with the exception of Karjakin's victory over Khismatullin.

Methodology

2015 Russian Championship Superfinal

The Russian Championship Superfinal starts soon. Even though Grischuk and Kramnik are absent, the field is quite strong. I feel a bit sorry for Russian super-GMs; there is so much chess talent there that some players in the 2700+ club are hardly known at all. The top seed is Dmitry Jakovenko - rated a formidable 2759, ranked #12 in the world...and yet, he is rather obscure, since discussion of top Russian players tends to focus on Kramnik, Grischuk, and Karjakin. Svidler and Motylev have been around long enough that we are familiar with them. And then there is Tomashevsky, who almost won the FIDE Grand Prix. But strong players such as Khairullen (2655), Artemiev (2671), and Bukavshin (2655) are not well known. Last year, we were surprised when Lysyj won the tournament. His rating is now 2673; we will see if he continues to impress. The forecast:

Methodology