Biel and forecast update for the World Championship

Mamedyarov won convincingly in Biel. Carlsen finished second and shed some rating points. He is just 14 points ahead of Caruana in the live ratings. However, Caruana is much worse in rapid and blitz, so it is almost as if Carlsen has draw odds. As I have cautioned earlier, it's difficult to predict the rapid tiebreaks. There are far fewer rapid games in my database; as a result, there is more uncertainty about the draw rate.