2015 Tata Steel Chess Tournament: Carlsen wins

Unsurprisingly, Magnus Carlsen took clear first place. Meanwhile, Caruana lost his final game and finished with 7/13. Overall he will lose a couple of rating points. Soon after he won the Sinquefield Cup, his rating shot up to 2844, but has been gradually declining during the last few events. It seems like his Sinquefield Cup performance was a one time event rather than a signal of a new trend, but perhaps he will regain his form in the future.

Aronian continues to struggle. He lost to Liren and finished with a disappointing 5.5/13. Less than two years ago he was rated a staggering 2830, but now he is down to 2777 in the live ratings.

Radjabov is another player that I've been watching. His rating climbed all the way to 2793 before falling to 2713, but in the last few events he had been gradually coming back. He entered the event rated 2734 and was on track to pick up a few more points, but a last round loss to Jobava dashed those hopes. Jobava had a truly awful tournament; even with this win, he finished with 3.0/13 and stands to lose more than 30 Elo. I studied his games from this event, since I was wondering, "how does a strong player recover when he is doing badly?" In my own games, I tend to get much more cautious if I am on a losing streak, but Jobava stayed true to his style. He continued to play his very creative brand of chess, creating complications and unusual positions. However, ultimately it was quite unsuccessful even if we dismiss the first few games.

On a more positive note, Giri and So had excellent events, and seem likely to remain in the top 10 for some time.

The next super-tournament on the calendar: the GRENKE Chess Classic, February 2-9. The lineup includes Carlsen, Anand, and Caruana. It is possible that the forecast model will be able to take colors into account (i.e., whether a player has the white pieces or the black pieces), but no guarantees at the moment.

2015 Tata Steel Chess Tournament - Round 12

Wesley So lost to Giri, who is now half a point behind Carlsen. But Carlsen is almost guaranteed to win the tournament; in addition to his half point lead, he is the highest rated player and will be facing the bottom seed (Saric) in the final round.

2015 Tata Steel Chess Tournament - Round 11

Wesley So won today, so now Carlsen's lead is down to half a point.

2015 Tata Steel Chess Tournament - Round 10

Carlsen did *not* win today, but he continues to lead by a full point.

2015 Tata Steel Chess Tournament - Round 9

Carlsen won again. He leads by a full point with just 4 games left to go.

Even though Vachier-Lagrave and So have the same score and very similar ratings, the model thinks that So has much better chances. The reason is that Vachier-Lagrave has a much tougher schedule ahead of him; he will have to play Carlsen, Aronian, and Caruana. Meanwhile, So will be playing bottom seeds Van Wely and Saric.

2015 Tata Steel Chess Tournament - Round 8

Carlsen won again and is now in first place.

2015 Tata Steel Chess Tournament - Round 7

Carlsen is now tied for first after beating Yifan. Interestingly enough, Jobava - who had just 0.5/6 - defeated Wojtaszek, who in turn had prevailed over both Carlsen and Caruana.

2015 Tata Steel Chess Tournament - Round 6

After a disappointing start, Carlsen is reminding us why he is the World Champion. He defeated Caruana today, so his chances soared in the forecast. Ivanchuk continues to lead the tournament, but the model is skeptical that he will win due to his relatively low rating.

2015 Tata Steel Chess Tournament - Round 5

Caruana stumbled against Wojtaszek, while Carlsen defeated Aronian. Ivanchuk continues to lead with 4.0/5.

2015 Tata Steel Chess Tournament - Round 4

Ivanchuk won again and now leads the tournament with 3.5/4.

2015 Tata Steel Chess Tournament - Round 3

Today's biggest surprise was Carlsen's loss against Wojtaszek. Meanwhile Ivanchuk won his game to join Caruana at the top of the standings.

2015 Tata Steel Chess Tournament - Round 2

Caruana is off to a 2-0 start, but of course it is too early to start making comparisons to the Sinquefield Cup. He is now the favorite in the forecast.

2015 Tata Steel Chess Tournament - Round 1

Caruana, Vachier-Lagrave, and Ivanchuk prevailed in their first round games. Carlsen remains the favorite, but his chances are not as great as they were at the beginning.

2015 Tata Steel Chess Tournament

In a few days, the 2015 Tata Steel Chess Tournament will start. The top seeds are Carlsen, Caruana, and Aronian; the main event will be a 14-player round robin. As we all know, Caruana rocketed to #2 in the world following his incredible performance at the Sinquefield Cup. But since then, he has been shedding rating points, dropping from 2844 to his current 2820. It will be interesting to see if he can reverse the decline. In the forecast, the World Champion is the favorite, though there is a sizable chance that someone else will claim first place.