2015 London Chess Classic - Round 8

Today we returned to the usual pattern of 1 decisive game and 4 draws. This time, Giri won against Nakamura and is now tied for first with MVL.

As for winning the Grand Chess Tour, Giri is the favorite. The standings for the relevant players:

Giri - 13 Grand Chess Tour Points
MVL - 12 Grand Chess Tour Points

Aronian - 15 Grand Chess Tour Points
Carlsen - 14 Grand Chess Tour Points
Grischuk - 8 Grand Chess Tour Points

The winner of the London Classic gets 12 points if 1st place is shared and 13 points if it is not shared. Then 2nd place is 10 points, and 3rd place is 8. There is tiebreak procedure, but the website says that it can't be calculated until the end of the tournament.

Grischuk doesn't seem to have any chance, but Carlsen or Aronian could still win the Tour if they win their last games while Giri and MVL draw. As the forecast below indicates, there is a substantial probability of this happening.

But perhaps the biggest winner of the London Chess Classic is...Vladimir Kramnik. He's not even playing, but he has benefited from the tournament. Both Anand and Topalov have dropped enough points that now the Russian is in 2nd place in the live ratings. I don't recall Kramnik playing in many top tournaments this year, but when he has played, he has done well. His rating has climbed to 2796.

Methodology

2015 London Chess Classic - Round 7

Vachier-Lagrave took the lead by beating Anand. Since there are only 2 rounds left, he is the clear favorite for winning the tournament.

Methodology

London Chess Classic - Round 6

Grischuk defeated Anand and joined the leaders. I'm not sure if Anand could have drawn had he played 51...d3 instead of 51...Kd3. I'm failing to find a win for White, but I am not an expert.

Position after White's 51st move. Here Anand played 51...Kd3 and quickly lost.

Methodology

2015 London Chess Classic - Round 5

Anand bounced back with a victory over Topalov, who has been having a terrible tournament.

Methodology

2015 London Chess Classic - Round 4

Nakamura joined the leaders by beating Anand.

Methodology

2015 London Chess Classic - Round 3

MVL won against Topalov, joining Giri in first place. Topalov was leading the Grand Chess Tour before this tournament, but now his odds do not look so good.

Methodology

2015 London Chess Classic - Round 2

All the games were drawn today, so there was not much change in the forecast.

Methodology

2015 London Chess Classic

The tournament began today. World Champion Magnus Carlsen is of course the favorite. However, his rating has slipped to 2834 and the competition is extremely strong.

****

In Round 1, Giri defeated Topalov while the rest of the games were drawn.

Methodology