Gashimov Memorial and the US Chess Championship

The Gashimov Memorial begins soon; Magnus Carlsen will be there. The format is a 10-player round robin.

The US Championship (a 12-player round robin) is underway. Here is the forecast I posted earlier:

Methodology

Grenke and the World Championship

Caruana won Grenke. His live rating has risen to 2817.5 while Carlsen shed a few points. Here is the revised World Championship forecast:

Methodology

There is a 54.265% chance that Carlsen wins, a 28.115% chance that Caruana wins, and a 17.62% chance of a tie.

The US Chess Championship

The Big Three (Caruana, Nakamura, and So) will face 9 other top Americans in a round robin. Last week, Akobian defeated e4stat at the St. Louis Chess Club's Saturday Night Special. And in January, Liang won the Jane Addams Memorial with a perfect 4.0/4. E4stat also played in that tournament and started with 2.0/2, but could not keep up; I finished with 2.5/4.

Methodology

Grenke - Round 3 update

MVL caught up with Vitiugov at 2.5/3. Aronian, Carlsen, and Caruana are in pursuit with 2.0/3.

Methodology

Grenke Chess Classic

The World Champion and the Challenger will both play in this 10-player round robin. The pre-tournament forecast:

Below is the forecast updated after Round 2. Vitiugov opened with 2.0/2, but Carlsen remains the favorite.

Methodology

GM Var Akobian Vanquishes E4stat

Every US Chess Championship, I remind my readers that Var and I played in a 2010 blitz tournament. This time, the battleground was a rapid tournament (G15+2) at the St. Louis Chess Club. He improved his score against me to 3-0. But this time, I put up a fight.

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Move	N	Result	Elo

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1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 e6 3.Nf3 c5 4.d5 exd5 5.cxd5 d6 6.Nc3 g6 7.Bf4 a6 8.a4 Qe7 9.e3 Bg7 10.Be2 0-0 11.0-0 Nbd7 12.Nd2 Rb8 13.Nc4 Ne8 14.e4 The pawn is immune Ne5 15.Nb6 I had taken a long time on the previous move because I was concerned about 15.Nxe5 Bxe5 16.Bxe5 Qxe5 17.f4 White's center is on the move and Black has lost much of his dynamic potential after trading off his dark-squared bishop. But then I saw 16...dxe5 and realized that Black is okay. The knight will be transferred to d6, where it will block White's passer and support ...b5. 15...Nf6 16.Qd2 Nfd7 17.Nxc8 Rfxc8 18.Rae1 c4 19.Bg5 f6 20.Be3 Nc5 21.Bxc5 Rxc5 22.f4 Nd7 The right square for the knight, so that I can meet... 23.Bg4 with... Nf8 24.Re2 Stockfish thinks this move blows White's advantage b5 25.axb5 axb5 26.Re3 Re8 27.Kh1 I don't remember if he played Re3 before Kh1 or after Kh1, but this position definitely occurred. h5 I was trying to make 27...f5 work, but I wasn't happy with 28.Bf3. So I forced the bishop to commit itself. Stocky isn't fond of this move. In my defense, I was very low on time. 28.Bh3 Bh6 29.Ree1 b4?! I was down to around 10 seconds and had to make a move. But this gets Black in trouble. 30.Na4 Rb5 31.Qd4! And it's not easy to hold onto all my pawns. I lunged forward: f5? 31...c3 32.bxc3 Bg7! is actually playable (Stockfish), but you don't see these resources when you're down to 10 seconds! 32.Qxc4 Rbb8 33.e5 and Black soon collapsed 1–0

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White	EloW	Black	EloB	Res

Akobian,V

2725

Wilson,M

2083

1–0

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Good luck in the US Championship, Var!