Norway Chess Tournament 2018 and Poikovsky Karpov Tournament

There is a lot to watch for in the Norway Chess Tournament. Carlsen and Caruana are both playing, giving us a preview of their upcoming match. Anand finds himself in the unfamiliar position of being the bottom seed. Will he return to the top 10?

The Poikovsky Karpov tournament features a strong field with 5 members of the 2700 club. Gelfand no longer belongs to that group - will he stage a comeback? Nepomniachtchi is occasionally found in the top 10 lists. It's not impossible for him to return, but he would have to score very well for that to happen in this tournament.

Methodology

2018 Summer Classic

Another strong round robin in St. Louis. All 10 players in the A group are 2600+.

Methodology

E4stat vs. chess prodigy

Earlier this month, e4stat played in the 2nd Haymarket Memorial tournament in Chicago. In Round 1, I faced Yuvraj Chennareddy. You will probably hear a lot more about him in the future. He is currently America's top 7 year old chess player - his rating is already in the low 1800s! I don't think I saw his best chess that day. However, on the note to move 26, we catch a glimpse of his great potential. Here I try to explain all the little details that go into converting an extra Exchange. If the games are not displaying properly, click here

[Event "2nd Haymarket Memorial"] [Site "Chicago"] [Date "2018.05.05"] [Round "1"] [White "Wilson, Matthew"] [Black "Chennareddy, Yuvraj"] [Result "1-0"] [ECO "C83"] [WhiteElo "2083"] [BlackElo "1808"] [Annotator "Wilson,Matthew"] [PlyCount "91"] 1. e4 e5 2. Nf3 Nc6 3. Bb5 a6 4. Ba4 Nf6 5. O-O Nxe4 6. d4 b5 7. Bb3 d5 8. dxe5 Be6 9. c3 Be7 10. Nbd2 O-O 11. Re1 {The move order has been altered in order to conceal one of e4stat's opening surprises :)} Nxd2 12. Qxd2 { I thought that I had no advantage here, but the computer still believes in my position. This recapture looks awkward, but it does keep an eye on ...d5-d4 and in a few moves, White's queen and bishop will untangle by using a typical idea.} Na5 13. Bc2 Nc4 14. Qd3 g6 15. b3 Nb6 (15... Na3 $5 {looks suspicious, but neither the computer nor I can find a way trap the piece. But the Black knight causes disruption, so I should have played 15.Nd4 (Stockfish's suggestion) instead of 15.b3.}) 16. Bh6 c5 $2 {After the game, I asked him why he didn't save the rook. He said he thought his queenside majority would offer enough compensation. But clearly Black doesn't have to sacrifice in order to push his queenside pawns.} 17. Bxf8 Bxf8 18. Qe3 $1 {I like this move. Black got a bishop for a rook, so let's make sure that the bishop never gets active.} Qc7 ({This is not a great square for the queen. My notes suggest 18...Qd7, which would support ...d5-d4. Stockfish prefers} 18... Be7 { , which would stop the move I played in the game.}) 19. Ng5 { Preparing f2-f4 to advance my majority} Rd8 20. Rad1 Be7 (20... a5 { - a plan that Black will try later - should have been played here.}) 21. Qg3 { Preparing f2-f4 without allowing Black to damage my kingside majority.} ({ I had rejected} 21. Nxe6 fxe6 {since it would make it tougher to play f2-f4-f5. However, it does weaken Black's defenses against h2-h4-h5 and White can exploit that immediately:} 22. h4 $1 {. The pawn is immune:} Bxh4 $4 23. Qh3 $1 Qe7 24. g3 Bg5 25. f4 {traps the bishop. But 21.Qg3 is also fine.}) 21... Bxg5 {White was threatening 22.Nxe6 fxe6 23.Bxg6! hxg6 24.Qxg6+ Kf8 25.Rd3!} 22. Qxg5 Re8 (22... d4 23. cxd4 cxd4 24. Qh4 {and the d4-pawn is feeling the heat}) (22... a5 { logically prepares to create a passer with ...b5-b4, but it's too slow:} 23. f4 $1 Kh8 24. f5 $1 {etc. So instead Black prepares a queen trade.}) 23. f4 Qe7 ({ Black would like to advance with} 23... d4 $2 {, but it just doesn't work:} 24. f5 $1 Bxf5 25. Bxf5 Rxe5 26. Rxe5 Qxe5 27. Qd8+ $1) 24. Qxe7 ({I considered} 24. Qg3 {followed by a kingside attack. But Black can simply respond with} Kh8 {. If White persists with} 25. Rf1 {, then} Rg8 {and now White should not be eager to open up the g-file. Trading queens is best. Rooks shine in the endgame and once the queens are gone, White can advance his kingside majority.} ) 24... Rxe7 25. Rd2 {I soon regretted this move, but it's not bad. My idea was Bc2-d1-f3, transferring the bishop to a square where it would support g2-g4 and also hit d5. In addition, White can double rooks on the d-file. But this plan is too slow. Though my concept was wrong, the move is still okay because we will see later that the rook has some uses on the 2nd rank.} ({ After the game, I proposed} 25. b4 {, preventing the plan that Black starts on his next move. However, it does concede the c4-square.} cxb4 26. cxb4 Rc7 ( 26... Nc4 27. g4 $1) 27. Bb3 {(or else ...Rc4)} Nc4 28. Rd4 (28. g4 {is not as effective now, since with the White bishop on b3, I'm not ready to play f4-f5}) 28... h5 29. g3 {. White will gradually prepare h2-h3, g3-g4, and f4-f5 and there isn't much that Black can do about it. Objectively, it's not any better than what I did in the game, but this is a much easier path to victory.}) 25... a5 {Black intends ...b4 cxb4 ...axb4, creating a passed d-pawn. If White doesn't do something, then ...d4 and ...Nd5 could appear on the board as well.} 26. h3 ({I would like to stop his plan with} 26. a3 {, but after} a4 { Black gets the c4-square for his knight. Then Rd2 would look very foolish.}) 26... Bf5 ({After the game, I asked him why he didn't play} 26... h5 { . He showed me an impressive idea that I completely missed:} 27. g4 $1 hxg4 28. hxg4 Bxg4 29. Rg2 Bh5 30. f5 {and apparently he concluded that White gets more than enough play for the pawn sacrifice. It took a lot of analysis to prove it, but the kid's instincts were right on the money! Amazing talent.} Kh7 (30... Nd7 31. e6 fxe6 (31... Nf8 32. exf7+ Rxf7 (32... Kxf7 33. fxg6+ {drops material }) 33. fxg6 Rf6 (33... Rg7 34. Re8 $1 {followed by Rf2 wins a piece}) 34. g7 $1 Ng6 {(or else Bh7+!)} 35. Re5 $1 Nxe5 36. Bh7+ $1 {and the pawn promotes}) 32. fxe6 (32. Rxe6 Rxe6 33. fxe6 {is less effective since Black can play} Ne5) 32... Nf8 33. Re5 $1 Kh8 34. Rxd5 Nxe6 35. Re5 $1 {and Black is paralyzed}) ( 30... Bf3 31. Rg3 Be4 32. Bxe4 Rxe5 33. fxg6 dxe4 34. Rf1 $1 f5 35. Rg5 { is a variation from Stockfish. White quickly scoops up the loose pawns on the 5th rank}) 31. e6 b4 (31... Nc8 {and now Stockfish's} 32. Re3 $1 { , intending Rh3! is even stronger than 32.Re5 (the move in my notes)}) (31... fxe6 32. f6 $1 Re8 33. f7 {followed by Rxe6}) ({(trying to stop f5-f6)} 31... Kg7 32. Rf1 $1 f6 33. Bd1 $1 {and Black's kingside collapses}) (31... gxf5 32. Kf2 $3 {White threatens to win the bishop with Rh1. I actually found this beautiful idea on my own without the computer!} Bg6 33. exf7 Rxf7 34. Re6 $1) 32. cxb4 axb4 33. Re3 {(Stockfish). The idea is similar to the 31...gxf5 32. Kf2 line: bring the rook to the h-file and exploit tactics against Black's bishop.} 33... Kg7 34. Rh3 Kf6 35. exf7 Kxf7 36. fxg6+ {and White wins. Even though 26...h5 loses, he should have tried it since it would have required me to find some ideas that are difficult to see. After the move he played in the game, the hard part is over.}) 27. g4 (27. Bxf5 gxf5 28. g4 { was also appealing, but then Black would still have ...b5-b4 ideas}) 27... Bxc2 28. Rxc2 b4 $2 {This does create a passed pawn, but it isn't going anywhere and the open c-file will be Black's downfall.} 29. cxb4 cxb4 30. Rc6 $1 Rb7 ({ Depressing, but} 30... Re6 31. Rxe6 fxe6 32. Rc1 d4 { (or else 33.Rc6! and the knight will never find activity)} 33. Rd1 Nd5 34. Rxd4 {was also hopeless}) 31. Rd1 {Stopping any counterplay from ...d5-d4 followed by ...Nd5. The rest is straightforward.} Kf8 32. Kf2 Ke7 33. Ke3 Kd7 34. Rd6+ Kc7 35. Rc1+ Kb8 36. Rcc6 Ka7 37. Kd4 Ka6 $2 { Losing a piece, but Black's position was already resignable.} 38. Kc5 d4 39. Rxb6+ Rxb6 40. Rxb6+ Ka7 41. Kc6 d3 42. Rb7+ Ka8 43. Kb6 d2 44. Rd7 d1=R 45. Rxd1 Kb8 46. Rd8# 1-0

In Round 2, a 2300 caught me with a weird tactic:

[Event "2nd Haymarket Memorial"] [Site "Chicago"] [Date "2018.05.05"] [Round "2"] [White "Menon, Gopal"] [Black "Wilson, Matthew"] [Result "1-0"] [ECO "B43"] [WhiteElo "2329"] [BlackElo "2083"] [Annotator "Wilson,Matthew"] [SetUp "1"] [FEN "2r1kb1r/1bq2ppp/pnnp1P2/1p2p1P1/4P3/PNN3QB/1PP4P/1KBR3R b k - 0 20"] [PlyCount "12"] 20... Rd8 {I knew that I was in trouble here} 21. Be3 { At the time, I thought that White should have traded on g7 first in order to open up the kingside. I quickly "punished" his "inaccuracy"} g6 $2 22. Bxb6 Qxb6 23. Nd5 { I was about to retreat to a7, but then I realized that 24.Nc7 was checkmate!} Nd4 24. Nxb6 Nxb3 25. Qxb3 Bxe4 26. Rhe1 1-0

Gopal went on to tie for 1st with 3.0/4. I finished the tournament with a win over a 2000 player, so my rating climbed to 2093.

World Championship - Forecast update

Carlsen gained rating points in the Gashimov Memorial. Meanwhile, Caruana climbed to 2822. The latest forecast for the World Championship is based on their new ratings:

Methodology

E4stat visits the US Chess Championship

Congratulations to Sam Shankland, 2018 US Chess Champion. He scored an extraordinary +6 against a very tough field and pushed his rating over 2700. He also made my forecast look bad. I visited rounds 10 and 11.

The star-studded lineup:

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Sam is about to clinch the championship here; he has a clearly winning position in Round 11 against Awonder Liang.

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Awonder in Round 10, pressing in his game against Izoria. Awonder scored drew all his games against the Big Three. Back in January, he won the Jane Addams Memorial with a perfect 4.0/4 (e4stat tied for 8th with 2.5/4). 

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This guy scored 2.5 points against the Big Three! 2600s are not to be underestimated. Here in Round 10, Izoria succumbed to Awonder Liang.

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The only 2700 player to survive against Izoria. After the first 2 games, he was in contention for the Fischer Prize (11-0), but he finished with a "Giri" (all draws).

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Wesley So in a very drawish rook ending against Robson in Round 10.

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Ray Robson in Round 10

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The next World Champion?

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In Round 10, Zherebukh went into a deep think after Caruana unleashed ...Bg4! A few moves later, Caruana avenged his loss from the 2017 US Championship.

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Onischuk had a tough tournament. In Round 10, Sam Shankland ground him down. Just one year ago, Onischuk tied for first with Wesley So but lost the playoff.

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I would not say that Nakamura slammed the clock. But when I was watching another game, I heard someone hit the clock with emphasis. I glanced over. Nakamura had just unleashed e5-e6! against Akobian.

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He was briefly in the lead, but Akobian fell apart later in the tournament. Here is his game against me in the Saturday Night Special

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The world's tallest chess piece, outside the World Chess Hall of Fame.