I changed the model before the World Championship, but I'm still not entirely happy with it. In elite tournaments, the draw rate seems to have risen in the last decade or so. My model does account for the year in which the game was played, but its predicted draw rate remains too low for recent tournaments. No forecast - I'm still making changes.
Saturday, January 15, 2022
Wednesday, January 5, 2022
Stockfish + Bongcloud vs. 2100
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| Move | N | Result | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Replay and check the LiveBook here |
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1.e4 c5 2.Ke2 The Stockbong challenge: I made Stockfish play the Bongcloud.
It's move 2 and I already have a big advantage, so maybe I can hope to
survive?! d5 3.exd5 Qxd5 4.Ke1 e5 5.Qf3 Nf6? I took the wrong approach
to this game. Black needs to keep pieces on the board since White can't castle.
But I was happy to trade down towards a draw. I did look at 5...Qd6. However,
I didn't like 6.Bc4 followed by Nc3 and Ne4 - White would get trades anyways
and his pieces would be centralized. 5...Qe6 (SF) is stronger. 6.b3 Nc6 7.Bc4 Qe7 8.Nc3 Nd4 is great for Black 6.Qxd5 Nxd5 7.Nc3 Be6 8.Nxd5
I was planning to meet 8.Bc4 with Nf4 8...Bxd5 9.Ne2 Nc6 10.Nc3 Be6 11.Bb5 Rc8 I thought it was important to avoid doubled c-pawns. I did consider
11...Kd7, but I felt that the text was better. The rook commonly goes to c8 in
these Maroczy bind structures. If instead 11...Kd7, I will probably have to
spend a tempo on ...Kc7 sometime in the future 12.d3 Be7 13.b3 0-0 14.Bc4 Nd4 15.Kd2 Bg5+?! Giving away my advantage. Stockfish prefers 15...f5. 16.Kd1 Bxc1 At first, I thought I was winning material with 16...Bg4+ 17.f3 Nxf3 , but then I spotted 17...Bxc1 18.Kxc1
and now there is no fork on f3 18.h3! not 18.gxf3? Bxf3+ 19.Ne2 19.Ke1 Bxc1! 20.Rf1 Bb2! 19...Bxc1! 20.Rf1 Bxe2+ 18...Bh5 19.Bxg5 Nxg5+ 20.g4 Bg6 20...Nxh3 (SF) is better, but after 21.gxh5 Nf2+ 22.Kd2 Nxh1 23.Rxh1 , the minor pieces outweigh the rook 21.h4
followed by 22.h5, trapping the bishop 17.Kxc1 Rfd8 18.a4
During the game, I wasn't sure about 18.Re1 f6 19.f4 Bxc4 20.bxc4 exf4
, but Stockfish shows that Black is at least equal here: 21.Nd5 21.Re7? Re8! 22.Rxb7 Re1+ 23.Kb2 Rxa1 24.Kxa1 Nxc2+ followed by ...Nc2-e3xg2 21...Re8! Now 22.Ne7+ doesn't work, so White has to play 22.Kd2 and try to
recover the pawn 18...f6 19.Nb5 Bxc4 My original intention was 19...a6 20.Nxd4 Bxc4 but then I saw 21.Nf5! winning material 20.bxc4 Nxb5
A concession 20...Kf7 is best (SF). The tactical justification is 21.Nxa7 Ra8 22.Nb5 Nxb5 23.cxb5 Ra5! and Black will recover the pawn 20...Nc6 is simple and White doesn't have much 21.axb5 Ra8 22.Kd2 Rdb8 22...a5? 23.bxa6 Rxa6 24.Rxa6 bxa6 25.Rb1 and White dominates the open file. The
text aims to open the b-file under more favorable conditions 23.h4
I was expecting 23.Rhb1 in order to prevent ...a5. But Stockfish correctly
judges that ...a5 weakens my position 23...a5?! This gets me in trouble 23...b6 24.Ra6 Rb7 25.Rha1
and my rooks are very passive. However, White can't break through: h5 26.Ke3 Kf7 27.Ke4 Ke6 28.c3 28.f4 exf4 29.d4 Kd6 28...g5 . Even if the White
king could somehow get to d5, I could reorganize my defense with ...Rd8+ ...
Rdd7 24.bxa6 Rxa6 25.Rhb1 25.Rxa6 bxa6 26.Ra1 Rb6 27.Ra5 Rc6
and Black should be able to hang on 25...Rxa1 26.Rxa1 Kf7 27.Ra5 Rc8?
The decisive mistake, which I played quickly I rejected 27...b6 28.Ra7+
since I didn't want to surrender the 7th rank. But Stocky shows that Black can
hold: Kg6 29.Rc7 29.Ke3 Rd8 followed by ...Rd6 29...h5 30.Ke3 Ra8 31.Rb7 Ra6 Black's pieces look awkward, but White can't move forward without
allowing counterplay. 32.Ke4 32.g3 Kh6 33.Ke4 Ra2 34.Rxb6 Rxc2 35.Ke3 e4! 36.Kxe4 Rxf2 37.d4 cxd4 38.c5 Kg6 39.Kxd4 Kf5 40.Rb3 Ke6 triple zeros 32...Ra2 33.Rxb6 Rxc2 34.Ke3 Kf5 35.Rc6 g5 36.hxg5 fxg5 37.Rxc5 Kf6
and White can't make progress 28.Rb5 Rc7 29.Ke3 Ke6 30.Ke4 I was expectin
g 30.g4, but as we will see in the next note, White is not afraid of ...f5+ Rd7 Sacrificing a pawn for activity 30...f5+ 31.Ke3 Kf7 32.f4 exf4+ 33.Kxf4 and the White king will invade on the dark squares 31.Rxc5 Rd4+ 32.Ke3 Rxh4 33.Rb5 Rg4 34.g3 h5 35.Rxb7 g5 Trying to create a passed h-pawn,
but Stockfish quickly turns it into a weakness 36.Rh7 h4 37.gxh4 gxh4 38.c3 Kd6 I spent a lot of time on this move. 38...Kf5 was the main alternative.
The idea is to kick out the White rook so I can push the h-pawn 39.f3! Rf4 40.Rh8! Kg6 41.c5 Kg7 42.c6! and the pawn promotes 39.f3! Rf4
Now my "active" rook is nearly trapped. I hoped that it would keep White's
king cut off, but itisn'tenough I looked at 39...Rg2 40.Rxh4 Rc2
, but I didn't like my position after 41.f4 . Either I let White have
connected passers or my e5-pawn is weak. Stocky's main line continues Rxc3 42.fxe5+ fxe5 43.Rh6+ Kc5 44.Re6 and White wins 40.d4
Now the passers just march down the board Ke6 41.c5 Kd5 42.Rh8 Kc6 43.Rc8+ Kd7 44.Rf8 Rf5 I thought 44...Ke7 lost to 45.dxe5
, but Stockfish finds Rf5! . Instead 45.c6 wins 45.d5 Rf4 46.c6+ Kd6 47.Rd8+ Kc7 48.Rd7+ Kc8 49.Rh7 Rc4 50.Kd3 Rc5 51.c4 f5 52.Kc3 e4 53.Kb4 exf3 54.Rh8+ Kc7 55.Kxc5 1–0
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| White | EloW | Black | EloB | Res |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stockfish 14.1 | - | Wilson,M | 2127 | 1–0 |
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