2014 London Chess Classic

The London Chess Classic is a 6 player round robin starting tomorrow. It features Anand, Caruana, Kramnik, Nakamura, Giri, and Adams - an impressive lineup. Unfortunately, I don't have a forecast for the tournament. My laptop isn't working, and I seem to have neglected to copy the file to my USB. As soon as the computer is fixed, I'll post the predictions.

2014 Russian Chess Championship Superfinal - Round 9

Lysyj drew his last game, clinching first place. Jakovenko took 2nd. I have followed Jakovenko's games for a while; they first came to my attention when I studied the 6.Be2 Najdorf. He won a number of instructive games with the white pieces, and gradually rose to the 2700s.

2014 Russian Chess Championship Superfinal - Round 8

Lysyj maintains a half point lead with one game to go.

2014 Russian Chess Championship Superfinal - Round 7

Today's surprise: the leader lost to the bottom seed! Lysyj is still in first place, but now he is only half a point ahead of the pack.

2014 Russian Chess Championship Superfinal - Round 6

Lysyj won again, continuing his impressive performance.

2014 Russian Chess Championship Superfinal - Round 5

Before the tournament, hardly anyone would predict that Lysyj would be leading after 5 rounds. But after he toppled Karjakin today, so he is now in first place. The other upset of the day was Khismatullin defeating Morozevich.

2014 Russian Chess Championship Superfinal - Round 4

Morozevich briefly captured the lead in Round 3, but then fell in Round 4. Now there is a 4-way tie for first.

2014 Russian Chess Championship Superfinal - Round 2

Top seed Sergey Karjakin stumbled in Round 2, losing to Nepomniactchi. Morozevich and Zvjaginsev also won in Round 2, joining Lysyj in first place.

2014 Russian Chess Championship Superfinal

The 10-player round robin stars Sergey Karjakin as top seed. Even though the tournament is missing Grischuk and Kramnik, there are so many elite Russian players that it is still very competitive.

2014 World Chess Championship: Carlsen - Anand Game 10

Game 10 was a hard fought draw. The latest forecast:

Carlsen wins: 83.4725%
Anand wins: 2.13%
Match drawn: 14.3975%

With rapid tiebreaks,

Carlsen wins: 90.83%
Anand wins: 5.39%
Match drawn: 3.78%

2014 World Chess Championship: Carlsen - Anand Game 9

The game quickly ended in a draw. If the score was even, then draws would assist Anand's chances, especially draws with Black. In shorter matches, there are more chances for an upset. However, in this case Carlsen is a point up, so each draw brings him closer to victory.

Carlsen wins: 81.165%
Anand wins: 3.3%
Match drawn: 15.535%

With rapid tiebreaks included:

Carlsen wins: 89.1%
Anand wins: 6.81%
Match drawn: 4.09%

2014 World Chess Championship: Carlsen - Anand Game 8

Carlsen was well prepared and held a draw without much difficulty. He certainly remains the favorite in the forecast.

Carlsen wins: 83.6575%
Anand wins: 4.505%
Match drawn: 11.8375%

With rapid tiebreaks included,

Carlsen wins: 89.71%
Anand wins: 7.18%
Match drawn: 3.11%

2014 World Chess Championship: Carlsen - Anand Game 7

Fortunately for chess fans on the west coast, the game was very long today, allowing us to see the last part. Eventually Anand held a draw with Black, so his odds improved slightly.

Carlsen wins: 82.675%
Anand wins: 5.2175%
Match drawn: 12.1075%

With rapid tiebreaks included,

Carlsen wins: 88.86%
Anand wins: 7.96%
Match drawn: 3.18%

Carlsen - Anand 2014: Game 6

Carlsen prevailed today, though he committed a blunder that Anand failed to exploit. This oversight dominated the press conference. Now that he leads 3.5 - 2.5, Carlsen's chances climbed considerably in the forecast.

Carlsen wins: 84.9675%
Anand wins: 5.0675%
Match drawn: 9.965%

With rapid tiebreaks accounted for,

Carlsen wins: 90.06%
Anand wins: 7.32%
Match drawn: 2.62%

Carlsen - Anand 2014: Game 5

Anand's chances continue to creep upwards. A draw today slightly improved his odds, though draws with White are less helpful than draws with Black.

Carlsen vs. Anand 2014 - Game 4

The longer that Anand can keep the score level, the better his chances get. After today's draw, the forecast continued to shift in his favor.

Carlsen wins: 72.365%
Anand wins: 13.2725%
Match drawn: 14.3625%

When the rapid tiebreaks are included,

Carlsen wins: 79.7053%
Anand wins: 16.5209%
Match drawn: 3.77375%

Carlsen vs. Anand 2014 - Game 3

Anand came back with an important victory today. His chances jumped in the forecast:

Carlsen wins: 74.905%
Anand wins: 12.29%
Match drawn: 12.805%

After including the rapid tiebreaks,

Carlsen wins: 81.4493%
Anand wins: 15.1862%
Match drawn: 3.36451%

Meanwhile, Grischuk won the Petrosian Memorial after drawing Kramnik in the last round. His performance was outstanding but unfortunately it will likely be overshadowed by the World Championship. Kramnik was in good form; his +2 score brought him back to the top ten in the live rankings. Gelfand repaired some of the damage from the previous Grand Prix tournament by winning his last game.

Petrosian Memorial (Tashir) - Round 6

Anand and Carlsen had a rest day, so we turn our attention to the Petrosian Memorial. Kramnik is on the rise; today he toppled Morozevich and is in clear second place. Grischuk drew Aronian and is a full point ahead of the field. The only thing that could go wrong is if he loses to Kramnik in the last round.

Carlsen vs. Anand 2014: Game 2 and Tigran Petrosian Memorial (Tashir)

Carlsen prevailed today. Things don't look good for Vishy.

Carlsen wins: 88.1475%
Anand wins: 6.1525%
Match drawn: 5.7%

With the rapid tiebreaks included:

Carlsen wins: 91.0606275%
Anand wins: 7.4416975%
Match drawn: 1.4980275%

Meanwhile, Grischuk is doing very well in the Petrosian Memorial. The World Championship does overshadow other chess events, and after seeing Caruana's 7.0/7 in the Sinquefield Cup, perhaps Grischuk's 4.5/5 is not quite as dazzling as it would normally be. But it is still a great performance; he is almost certain to win the tournament.

Carlsen vs. Anand 2014: Game 1

Anand's chances inched upwards after holding a draw in the first game. In the remaining 11 games, Carlsen will have 6 whites and 5 blacks, and these forecasts account for this advantage.

Carlsen wins: 78.7225%
Anand wins: 10.895%
Match drawn: 10.3825%

In case of a 6-6 tie, a 4-game rapid tiebreaker will decide the outcome. With this included, the forecast becomes:

Carlsen wins: 84.0287%
Anand wins: 13.2433%
Match drawn: 2.728%

As a chess player, Game 1 reminded me of the second game in last year's match. Back then, Carlsen surprised Anand with some preparation in the Caro-Kann, and Anand settled for a quick draw with white. Here Anand presumably did not expect the Grunfeld. He picked a line that is not especially ambitious (5.Bd2); soon Carlsen had the advantage. Anand did defend well and never had a lost position. However, he should not be falling under pressure while playing the white pieces. Like last year, it seems that Carlsen has the better opening preparation, even though he is famously inattentive to the opening while Anand's preparation is legendary. But all of this is based on one game; everything could change in round 2.

Meanwhile, the Petrosian Memorial is still underway in Tashir. With a dull draw, Liren ended Grischuk's winning streak.

Carlsen vs. Anand: 2014 World Chess Championship forecast

Last year, I went out on a limb and said that Carlsen was heavily favored to win ("Are the World Champions Just Lucky? Part 2"). This was controversial at the time, but the results ultimately vindicated the forecast. Now the players meet again.

The rating gap is still quite wide; Carlsen has a spectacular Elo of 2863 while Anand is at 2792. Since the model is based on the Elo ratings, Carlsen is once again the favorite by a large margin. I ran 40,000 simulations of the match:

Carlsen wins: 79.875%
Anand wins: 10.4325%
Match drawn: 9.6925%

The draw rate in the forecast comes from the new model I discussed in some of my earlier posts. It projects that there is a 51% chance of a draw in each game. This is well below the 66% rate observed in modern World Championship matches ("Are the World Champions Just Lucky" Part 1). The reason? The large rating gap again. Draws are more likely when the ratings are close than when they are far apart. If it were 2800 vs. 2800, then the draw rate would be about 58.2%. However, even this seems to be a bit low. Perhaps draws occur more frequently in the World Championship because the incentives are different. In a regular tournament, you have to win several games in order to take first place. But in a match, it suffices to win one game more than your opponent does. Unfortunately, there is no clear way to test for and, if necessary, correct for this increased draw rate in matches. There are not many matches at a high level featuring a wide gap in the ratings. The amount of data that we need just isn't there. But if you believe that the draw rate should be higher, then Carlsen's chances should be revised upwards.

Sagar Shah on ChessBase.com provides a fine summary of Anand and Carlsen's play since their previous match. I'll only touch on a pattern I noticed. Most recently, Anand has been trending upwards and Carlsen downwards. After losing his crown, Anand won the Candidates Tournament and Bilbao with impressive performances. His rating is on the rise and he is playing excellently. Earlier, I called Carlsen's 2863 rating "spectacular" - which it certainly is - but it is also below his record. His highest official rating, 2881, was attained this year, as was his highest live rating (2889.2). If we compare his peak live rating to his current rating, then he has shed 26 points in 6 months. However, we should be cautious when interpreting these results. It is easy to "find" patterns in small samples when none exist; when there is only a handful of observations, then luck can play a big role. And even if there was a significant trend, it may not be enough to overcome the large gap in the ratings. In the Candidates Tournament, Anand's performance rating was about 2850. He would still be the underdog if he maintained that level of play.

In short, it is unclear if the draw rate is too low or if there should be some adjustment for the trend in the ratings. There isn't enough evidence either way. Raising the draw rate would improve Carlsen's chances while adjusting for trend would improve Anand's prospects. Thus, the errors (again, only if they exist, and they might not) will probably cancel out. The forecast can be trusted.

Now what happens if the match is drawn? According to the rules, there will be a 4 game tiebreaker played at rapid time controls. Fortunately, we can turn to FIDE's rapid ratings to form a new forecast. Last year, there were very few rated games played at rapid time controls, so my concern was that the rapid ratings reflected performance at classical time controls instead. By now, both players have more than 30 rapid games in FIDE's records. Carlsen is rated 2855 while Anand stands at 2809. To estimate the draw rate, I took rapid games played this year between players rated 2700+. Again, since rapid ratings are relatively new, using older games could be inaccurate. The draw rate is still around 52% based on a logit model. I was surprised that it was so close to the draw rate for the classical games. In general however, there were fewer draws in rapid games. In this case, the rating gap is smaller in their rapid ratings than in classical. This raises the chance of a draw, offsetting the effect of faster time controls. If the match is drawn, then Anand's chances greatly improve in the tiebreaks:

Chances in 4-game rapid tiebreak match
Carlsen wins: 51.1075%
Anand wins: 22.6175%
Draw: 26.275%

This can be combined with the original forecast for the 12-game classical match:

Chances in 12-game classical match with 4-game rapid tiebreaker

Carlsen wins: 84.83%
Anand wins: 12.62%
Draw: 2.55%

In the unlikely event that the match is still drawn, then a blitz match begins. No forecast for that is available at this time.

Once the match begins, I'll have a model ready that can estimate the effect of having an extra White or extra Black. Of course, both players will have 6 Whites and 6 Blacks. But after game 1, one will have 6 Whites and 5 Blacks, while the reverse will be true for his opponent. This color correction is not easy to estimate, as discussed in my other ChessBase article ("1.e4 - 'Best by Test'?" Part 2). However, I have found a way to do it for the draw rate, and the same idea can be applied to predicting the expected scores.

In addition to updating the probability models, there will also be some chess to enjoy. Looking forward to that.

Tashir Tigran Petrosian Memorial Chess Tournament - Round 3

Grischuk wins again and is now very likely to claim first place.

Tashir Tigran Memorial Chess Tournament - Round 2

Grischuk won again and leads with a perfect 2.0/2. Kramnik beat Inarkiev and is now in second.

Tashir Tigran Petrosian Memorial - Round 1

Gelfand held a draw against Aronian without many problems. Meanwhile, Grischuk boosted his chances by defeating Inarkiev. Morozevich employed the Sicilian O'Kelly variation against Leko and drew. Liren - Kramnik also ended in a draw.

Tashir Tigran Petrosian Memorial

The tournament is an eight-player round robin, starring Aronian and Grischuk. Gelfand fared poorly in the last Grand Prix tournament; we will see if he can regain his form. Kramnik is another player to watch. A year or two ago, he tied for first in the Candidates Tournament with Carlsen and won the World Cup. Since then, his performance has dropped, and now he is no longer in the top 10. Can he come back?

FIDE Grand Prix Tashkent - Round 11

Andreikin wins first place. Before the tournament began, the model gave him just a 1.4% chance of doing this.

FIDE Grand Prix Tashkent - Round 10

All the games were drawn, so Andreikin maintains his half point lead with one round to go.

FIDE Grand Prix Tashkent - Round 9

Andreikin bested Jobava and moves into sole first place. He has excellent chances to win the tournament.

FIDE Grand Prix Tashkent - Round 8

Jobava defeated Gelfand and joined Andreikin and Nakamura at the top.

FIDE Grand Prix Tashkent - Round 7

Caruana finally won a game. Nakamura and Andreikin continue to lead.

FIDE Grand Prix Tashkent - Round 6

Unexpected events continue. Andreikin, the 10th seed in the 12-player tournament, is now tied for first. Meanwhile, 2844-rated Fabiano Caruana remains without a single win.

FIDE Grand Prix Tashkent - Round 5

Nakamura leapfrogged Vachier-Lagrave and now is in clear first place. The model boldly predicts that almost anything can happen:

Performances can fluctuate quite dramatically; the winners of the last Grand Prix, Caruana and Gelfand, are currently near the bottom of the standings.

FIDE Grand Prix Tashkent - Round 4

All draws today

FIDE Grand Prix 2 (Tashkent)

While I was buried in work, the next Grand Prix tournament began. Surprisingly, Caruana starts off with just 1.0/3. Before the tournament started, he would have had a 52% chance of winning, but now that has been reduced substantially. Vachier-Lagrave is now the favorite due to his 2.5/3.

FIDE Grand Prix - Round 11

Unsurprisingly, Gelfand and Caruana tied for 1st.

FIDE Grand Prix - Round 10

Caruana and Gelfand reclaimed the lead today. However, Caruana is definitely the favorite. He is much higher rated than Gelfand, and he will face bottom seed Tomashevsky (2701) in the last round. The rating gap in Gelfand's last game will be much smaller; Gelfand (2748) plays Svidler (2732).

FIDE Grand Prix - Round 9

Both Gelfand and Caruana lost today. Now half of the players are tied for first with 5.0/9.

FIDE Grand Prix - Round 8

Svidler defeats Domingues; remaining games are drawn.