Carlsen vs. Anand 2014: Game 1

Anand's chances inched upwards after holding a draw in the first game. In the remaining 11 games, Carlsen will have 6 whites and 5 blacks, and these forecasts account for this advantage.

Carlsen wins: 78.7225%
Anand wins: 10.895%
Match drawn: 10.3825%

In case of a 6-6 tie, a 4-game rapid tiebreaker will decide the outcome. With this included, the forecast becomes:

Carlsen wins: 84.0287%
Anand wins: 13.2433%
Match drawn: 2.728%

As a chess player, Game 1 reminded me of the second game in last year's match. Back then, Carlsen surprised Anand with some preparation in the Caro-Kann, and Anand settled for a quick draw with white. Here Anand presumably did not expect the Grunfeld. He picked a line that is not especially ambitious (5.Bd2); soon Carlsen had the advantage. Anand did defend well and never had a lost position. However, he should not be falling under pressure while playing the white pieces. Like last year, it seems that Carlsen has the better opening preparation, even though he is famously inattentive to the opening while Anand's preparation is legendary. But all of this is based on one game; everything could change in round 2.

Meanwhile, the Petrosian Memorial is still underway in Tashir. With a dull draw, Liren ended Grischuk's winning streak.