To answer this, I used the same model that I applied to the Candidates (I'll discuss the performance of that model after the tournament). The Elo ratings provide the expected score in each game. To estimate the draw percentage, I first searched my database for games by 2700 players. Inside this collection of games, I matched each game in the tournament to games with a similar rating gap. For example, Mamedyarov is rated 47 Elo above Radjabov. The model's draw rate for their match is based off the draw rate between 2700 players where the rating gap is between 37 and 57 points. The likelihood of a draw in the other games is computed in the same way.
The results? Here are the probabilities before Round 1, based on 40,000 simulations. Since multiple players can share 1st place, the probabilities in the first column will add to more than 1. For the same reason, the second column sums to less than 1.
Naturally, Carlsen's chances are far superior to anyone else's. But his odds seem surprisingly modest; 75% or 85% would have been my first guess. After he won his first game, the model revised its expectations upward:
Those who have followed the chess news closely may remember that Radjabov used to be one of the world's very best. Back in April, his rating reached an impressive peak of 2793, but has since plummeted to 2713. Such a plunge is very unusual at this level. It will be interesting to see if he can come back this tournament.
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