2015 London Chess Classic - Round 8

Today we returned to the usual pattern of 1 decisive game and 4 draws. This time, Giri won against Nakamura and is now tied for first with MVL.

As for winning the Grand Chess Tour, Giri is the favorite. The standings for the relevant players:

Giri - 13 Grand Chess Tour Points
MVL - 12 Grand Chess Tour Points

Aronian - 15 Grand Chess Tour Points
Carlsen - 14 Grand Chess Tour Points
Grischuk - 8 Grand Chess Tour Points

The winner of the London Classic gets 12 points if 1st place is shared and 13 points if it is not shared. Then 2nd place is 10 points, and 3rd place is 8. There is tiebreak procedure, but the website says that it can't be calculated until the end of the tournament.

Grischuk doesn't seem to have any chance, but Carlsen or Aronian could still win the Tour if they win their last games while Giri and MVL draw. As the forecast below indicates, there is a substantial probability of this happening.

But perhaps the biggest winner of the London Chess Classic is...Vladimir Kramnik. He's not even playing, but he has benefited from the tournament. Both Anand and Topalov have dropped enough points that now the Russian is in 2nd place in the live ratings. I don't recall Kramnik playing in many top tournaments this year, but when he has played, he has done well. His rating has climbed to 2796.

Methodology

2015 London Chess Classic - Round 7

Vachier-Lagrave took the lead by beating Anand. Since there are only 2 rounds left, he is the clear favorite for winning the tournament.

Methodology

London Chess Classic - Round 6

Grischuk defeated Anand and joined the leaders. I'm not sure if Anand could have drawn had he played 51...d3 instead of 51...Kd3. I'm failing to find a win for White, but I am not an expert.

Position after White's 51st move. Here Anand played 51...Kd3 and quickly lost.

Methodology

2015 London Chess Classic - Round 5

Anand bounced back with a victory over Topalov, who has been having a terrible tournament.

Methodology

2015 London Chess Classic - Round 4

Nakamura joined the leaders by beating Anand.

Methodology

2015 London Chess Classic - Round 3

MVL won against Topalov, joining Giri in first place. Topalov was leading the Grand Chess Tour before this tournament, but now his odds do not look so good.

Methodology

2015 London Chess Classic - Round 2

All the games were drawn today, so there was not much change in the forecast.

Methodology

2015 London Chess Classic

The tournament began today. World Champion Magnus Carlsen is of course the favorite. However, his rating has slipped to 2834 and the competition is extremely strong.

****

In Round 1, Giri defeated Topalov while the rest of the games were drawn.

Methodology

2015 Bilbao Masters

So and Giri tied for 1st. They were the winners of the only 2 decisive games in the tournament; the draw rate was unusually high. In the tiebreak match, So emerged victorious.

At some point, the forecasts can be modified to account for whether a player has the black pieces or the white pieces. Once my workload gets under control, that will be done.

2015 Bilbao Masters

The tournament is a double round robin; the top seed is Anand. The forecast:

Methodology

2015 Poikovsky Karpov Tournament

Korobov and Bologan tied for first place. Meanwhile, Morozevich and Shirov finished near the bottom and both of them dropped below 2700. They used to be in the world's top 10.

In the World Cup, Karjakin overcame a 0-2 start against Svidler and won the match in the tiebreak games. Most likely, the model would not have predicted that.

2015 Poikovsky Karpov Tournament

The 10-player round robin starts soon. Shirov is the top seed; he used to be among the best in the world but is now in the low 2700s. Right behind him is Morozevich, who has a similar story. Last year's Russian champion, Lysyj, is also playing and is not to be underestimated. The forecast:

Methodology

E4stat visits the 2015 Sinquefield Cup (Part 3)

A very brief clip from the tournament:

But the video really can't convey what it felt like to be there. I had a terrific time and am looking forward to the next elite tournament in St. Louis.

E4stat visits the 2015 Sinquefield Cup (Part 2)

Sunday, August 30 - Round 7

I came earlier this time. The World Chess Hall of Fame is across the street from the chess club. Outside the front door stands the world's tallest chess piece.

Unfortunately, the World Chess Hall of Fame was not open when I arrived.

Kingside Diner is next to the chess club.

This time the action started before I even entered the chess club. I was crossing the street to get lunch, and I met Yasser Seirawan! I said hi to him even though he probably has no idea who I am. There were more minor chess celebrities inside the club...

GM Ben Finegold, paying a visit before going to Kingside Diner. And then there was GM Alejandro Ramirez. He wrote the report for ChessBase. Back in 2014, I briefly exchanged a few emails with him when ChessBase was preparing to publish my article, "1.e4 - 'Best by Test'?"

Since I came so early, I was able to stand in the front row once inside the playing hall. This made it easier to get decent pictures, but there were no guarantees...

Vachier-Lagrave "photobombed" this picture of Topalov.

Vachier-Lagrave filling out his scoresheet prior to his game with Caruana.

Anand waiting for the round to start.

Caruana about to start his game against Vachier-Lagrave. This is the game that was closest to where I was standing.

Vachier-Lagrave deciding on how he wants to meet Caruana's 3.Bb5+.

Grischuk battling against the world champion. He won!

Wesley So earned a large advantage against Anand, but the former world champion defended resourcefully and held a draw.

Nakamura checks out the other games. 

Vachier-Lagrave exiting the club after drawing Caruana.

Coming soon: a short video from Round 7.

E4stat visits the 2015 Sinquefield Cup

Saturday, August 29 - Round 6

I entered the doors of the St. Louis Chess Club. I'm not 100% sure where the line starts for buying tickets. Trying to figure things out, I stood off to the side out of everyone's way. Within a few minutes, ANISH GIRI walks by. I didn't say anything to him, he almost surely didn't even notice me, and I'm not even an Anish Giri fan. But it's still amazing.

After buying a ticket, I get in line to enter the playing hall. There is a security guard who checks to make sure that no one has a cell phone. One by one, the players pass by.

World Champion Magnus Carlsen. The two people following him might be GM Peter Heine Nielsen (one of Carlsen's seconds) and Henrik Carlsen, but I'm not sure. Seeing the World Champion was so exciting that I didn't pay any attention to the other people in the picture.

Levon Aronian, or "the Armenian hammer" according to GM Yasser Seirawan during the Ultimate Moves event that followed the tournament.

Former World Champion Veselin Topalov had a terrific start but was unable to maintain it.

Former World Champion Vishwanathan Anand had a poor event. It was hard to see the board since there were so many spectators in front of me, but eventually I got a clear view.

Giri-Anand

I SAW ANAND PLAY 11...Be7 ! True, it's not an especially remarkable move or an especially remarkable position. But watching the former World Champion play a move was still a very memorable experience.

The World Champion takes a sip during the opening.

Caruana in his game against Grischuk. More on that later.

Giri contemplating his next move in his game with Anand.

After a while of standing and trying to peer over the shoulders of the people in front of me, I decided to leave the playing hall. On the first floor of the chess club, there is an area where spectators can sit and watch the live broadcast with commentary by Yasser Seirawan, Jennifer Shahade, and Maurice Ashley.

Rex Sinquefield himself came to join us.

After a while, I wanted to see the games in person again and form my own impressions. It's very easy (and very enjoyable) to listen to the commentary, but at some point it starts to substitute for your own thought. Nakamura's brilliancy against So was close to the end, so the bulk of the spectators was watching that game. This created an opening to see Grischuk - Caruana. Both players were running low on time in a very interesting position.

Grischuk - Caruana

Position after 23...axb5

Grischuk played 24.Nb3, and Caruana quickly replied with 24...fxe3. I thought that this was a mistake. Much of Black's compensation comes from the fact that the h2-bishop is shut out of the game. Now the bishop is released, and Black only gets a pawn in return. The main alternative was 24...Bb6. Now one commentators (I think it was GM Ramirez) pointed out that White has an edge after 24...Bb6 25.Nd4. It relieves some pressure from e3, but at least the h2-bishop remains inactive. 25.Nxc5 Qxc5 26.fxe3 Qxe3. Grischuk paused for a while here. At first I considered some variations starting with 27.Bg1 and thought that White was much better. Black's center pawns will be blockaded, and the extra piece will prevail. Then I noticed that White also has 27.Re1. I couldn't reach a clear conclusion on which was better. Then Grischuk played 27.Re1. It was thrilling to see him play one of the moves that I thought was best. 27...Qf2 28.Bg1 Qf7 29.Qd2. At the time, I thought that 29.Be3 was more precise. Like 29.Qd2, it hits the g5-pawn, but it has the added bonus of stopping Black from playing ...h5. But Grischuk had a better idea. 29...Qg6

30.Ra6! I SAW ALEXANDER GRISCHUK SACRIFICE A ROOK!!! The rook cannot be taken due to 31.Qxg5+ and 32.Qxd5. If the Black king were flee to g7 or h8, then the once entombed dark-squared bishop springs to life with a devastating check on d4. 30...Rf6. I thought that he might simply trade rooks, eliminating Black's threat of ...h5. But instead Grischuk doubles down. 31.Rea1 The rook is still immune. 31...Re8 32.Rxf6 Qxf6 33.Rxa7. By now, Caruana was in severe time pressure. Highly uncharacteristically, Grischuk had a few more minutes. 33...h6 34.Be3 Qe5 35.Qe1 Bc4 36. Bd4 Qf4 37.Be3 Qe5 I'm not sure why Grischuk repeated moves. He had no intention of seeking a draw. Most likely, he wanted to get closer to the time control, but he was still leading Caruana on the clock. Hence, the shortage of time favored him. Perhaps he felt confident enough in his position that he didn't need to win in a time scramble. If he could just maintain his advantage through the time control, then he could certainly convert. 38.Bd4 Qf4 Now he finds a way to finish off the game.

39.Rg7+ Kf8 40.Qa1! Caruana was down to just seconds on the clock. His position is falling apart, and he has to find a way to meet 41.Qa3+. Caruana kept hesitating. He has to make a move! He has just seconds left! And then...I SAW CARUANA FLAG! Amazing. And all of that was just Round 6. Part 2 coming soon, with pictures and impressions from Round 7.

2015 Sinquefield Cup

Aronian clinched first place by drawing Topalov. We will have to see if he can continue his comeback in the last stage of the Grand Chess Tour.

2015 Sinquefield Cup - Round 8

There was no forecast update for the previous few rounds, since e4stat was busy watching the games in person. It was thrilling to be in the same room as the best players in the world - especially after reading so much about them and following their games. More details to come later.

Round 7 will likely be called the decisive round. At the beginning, Carlsen and Aronian were tied for first. But then Aronian ground down Nakamura, while Carlsen fell to Grischuk. In the end, Aronian left with a full point lead. After Round 8 brought us 5 draws, no one can overtake him. There is a some chance of a tie, though that depends on Aronian losing to Topalov and one of the players on 4.5/7 scoring a victory.

Methodology

2015 Sinquefield Cup - Round 5

Topalov lost to Caruana and fell out of first place. Meanwhile, Carlsen continued his comeback and beat So. Currently Aronian and Carlsen are in the lead.

Methodology