2015 US Chess Championships

The 2015 US Chess Championship begins on March 31. Last year, Kamsky was the sole 2700+ player, but this year he will be joined by Nakamura and So. Several young stars will also be competing; we haven't forgotten Sam Shankland's phenomenal performance in the Olympiad. The forecast:

Greg Shadade also attempts to forecast the tournament (http://www.uschess.org/content/view/12996/806/), and his conclusions are very similar. The main difference is that he gives Kamsky a much higher chance of winning (15%) than my model does. Though Kamsky remains a formidable player and is the defending champion, his rating has dropped over the last few years and he is no longer in the 2700 club. Also, he faces far stronger competition this year. Nakamura and So are both rated more than 100 points higher.