Dortmund Chess Tournament

For some reason, I can't upload the picture with the forecast. We'll have to use a different format.

-------------------------

Wins or ties for first

-------------------------

Caruana: 44%

Kramnik: 33%

So: 30%

Naiditsch: 13%

Nepomniachtchi: 10%

Yifan: 6%

Nisipeanu: 3%

Meier: 3%

--------------------------

Wins first place

---------------------

Caruana: 25%

Kramnik: 18%

So: 15%

Naiditsch: 5%

Nepomniachtchi: 2%

Yifan: 2%

Nisipeanu: 1%

Meier: 1%

There was some rounding in the above figures, which are based on 20000 simulations.

2015 Norway Chess Tournament - Round 8

Topalov's lead has narrowed to half a point. Anand defeated Hammer, while Topalov fell to Giri. It all comes down to the last round game between Anand and Topalov.

Methodology

2015 Norway Chess Tournament - Round 7

All of the games were drawn, so Topalov maintains his 1.5 point lead.

Methodology

2015 Norway Chess Tournament - Round 6

After yet another victory, Topalov leads by 1.5 points.

Methodology

2015 Norway Chess Tournament - Round 5

Topalov won again after a horrendous blunder from Hammer. He now leads by a full point.

Methodology

2015 Norway Chess Tournament - Round 4

Shockingly, Carlsen loses again. Anand got his revenge in a well-played game. The model still thinks that Carlsen has some very remote chances of tying for first, in spite of his 0.5/4 start. Topalov is the favorite now; he leads with 3.5/4 and faces the bottom seed (Hammer) in the next round.

Methodology

I certainly did not predict that Carlsen would be so sensationally unsuccessful in the first 4 rounds. The natural question is, how unlikely is his performance? According to the model, there is a 1.9% chance of him starting with 0.0/2 against Topalov and Caruana. This is roughly equal to the probability of tossing a coin and getting heads 6 times in a row. We can also ask, what is the probability that he scores no more than 0.5/4 against Topalov, Anand, Giri, and Caruana? The answer is about 0.6% - slightly less likely than tossing a coin and getting heads 7 times in a row, slightly more likely than rolling 3 dice and getting all 6's.

2015 Norway Chess Tournament - Round 3

Nakamura and Topalov won their games and lead with 2.5/3.

Methodology

2015 Norway Chess Tournament - Round 2

Almost unbelievably, Carlsen starts with 2 losses and is in clear last place. This certainly shakes up the forecast.

Methodology

2015 Norway Chess Tournament

The 2015 Norway Chess Tournament starts soon. It is part of the Grand Chess Tour, and it boasts an extremely strong field: out of the world's top 10, only Kramnik and So are missing.

E4stat is graduating and moving to Washington state in the next few days. It's not certain if we can maintain the usual routine of updating the forecast after every round.

Methodology