2018 Sinquefield Cup and World Championship forecast

Carlsen, Caruana, and Aronian tied for 1st in the Sinquefield Cup. As a result, the gap between the Champion and the Challenger narrowed to just 12 rating points.

2018 Sinquefield Cup

Carlsen and Caruana will be playing in the Sinquefield Cup; their game is certainly one that will be watched closely. Carlsen remains the favorite. However, Caruana has been narrowing the gap between them. Given that Carlsen dropped some rating points in Biel, it's conceivable - though unlikely - that Caruana could overtake him.

Biel and forecast update for the World Championship

Mamedyarov won convincingly in Biel. Carlsen finished second and shed some rating points. He is just 14 points ahead of Caruana in the live ratings. However, Caruana is much worse in rapid and blitz, so it is almost as if Carlsen has draw odds. As I have cautioned earlier, it's difficult to predict the rapid tiebreaks. There are far fewer rapid games in my database; as a result, there is more uncertainty about the draw rate.