World Chess Championship: Game 12 update

 Ding Liren bounced back with a win, so his chances of retaining the title increased substantially. Since he is the favorite in the rapid tiebreaks, his overall chances are around equal.

World Chess Championship: Game 11 update

Gukesh leads with 3 games to go, so he is likely to win.

World Chess Championship 2024: Game 10 update

 Gukesh's chances improve after a draw with Black

World Chess Championship: Game 9 update

As usual, the player who draws with Black sees their chances improve.

World Chess Championship: Game 8 update

 As usual, the player who draws with Black sees their chances improve.

World Chess Championship: Game 7 update

 Ding Liren's chances improve after drawing with Black

World Chess Championship: Game 6 update

 Gukesh's chances improve after he drew with Black

World Chess Championship: Game 5 update

 Ding Liren's chances improve after he drew with Black.

Tournament of Memory Champions

More chess and stats in the next post - today we take a break and recap the Tournament of Memory Champions. I was surprised to get invited. It was for former champions and top competitors who had come close to winning. Though I have been in the finals 6 times, I have never made it to the last round. After the 2024 US Championship, I took a short break and then resumed training. 

On November 10, I arrived at MIT with 13 other competitors. I was pretty calm. No pressure - I figured I was one of the bottom seeds. There were 3 national champions in the field: Nelson Dellis (6 times), Ron White (2 times), and Lance Tschirhart (1 time + 2 world records). Makenna Good had won the online championship in 2020. Then a bunch of almost-champions who had made it to the final round of a previous competition: Avi Chavda, Grace Smith, Jason Smith, and Briley Lewis. Erdem had won the qualifier for the 2024 championship. The rest of the field (Patricia Lee, Tuan Bui, Samay Shah, Sophia Hu) was also quite accomplished. 

Event #1: Long Term Recall. Three weeks in advance, we had been given a spreadsheet with trivia on the 50 states. Two mistakes and you are eliminated. The event ends when the field is whittled down from 14 competitors to 11. We started with a round of easy questions (e.g. what is the largest city in West Virginia?). Then the difficulty started to increase. I was sailing through comfortably. For all the questions I got, I knew the answer immediately. I also knew the answers to the questions that the other competitors got. Samay was eliminated quickly, and Lance followed shortly afterwards. Lance had largely retired from memory competitions after winning the 2019 national championship and hadn't trained much since. Then we got to the toughest round of questions, where we could have to combine information from multiple states. For example, which states have brook trout as their state fish? I found this very difficult, but many of the others were nailing it. Then it was Patricia's turn. I knew she had made one mistake in an earlier round. If she stumbled again, she was out and the event would end, since that would be the third elimination. But if she got it right, the event would continue, and I wasn't confident that I could handle the difficulty. I don't like rooting against anyone - many of these people are my friends - but I really needed her to mess up. Luckily for me, she made a mistake and I advanced to the next round with no errors.

Event #2: Words. We had 15 minutes to memorize a list of 300 words. Ron would have to say the first word on the list, then I would have to say the second, and so on. But skipping can backfire, since errors and eliminations can change which word on the list you have to recall. For this event only, we were joined by Claire Wang. She is a student at MIT and had finished 3rd in the 2018 championship. She had also been #1 in the world(!) at words on Memory League a few years ago. My plan was to attempt the first 120 words. No one ever does all 300. That's not necessary; you just need to know enough to outlast the 4 weakest competitors, since the round ends after 4 eliminations. There was a bonus prize for winning the words event, but I wasn't focused on that. Even on my best day, I don't stand a chance against Claire in words, so I was just trying to survive and qualify for the next round. Since I had already made it past the first event as a big underdog, I had already secured a respectable result. Now I'm just seeing how far I can get. Everything was going smoothly. I was getting everything right with almost no hesitation. Shockingly, Claire made a mistake early on, but it takes two strikes to get eliminated, so she still had a chance. Sophia and Makenna got knocked out. I don't know much about Sophia, but I can say that Makenna usually gets eliminated in words. We were nearing the 100th word, and I made my first error. Though I had attempted 120, I focused most of my attention on the first 100 and barely reviewed the end. We reached the 109th word, and it was my turn. I knew there was an animal involved (I later learned that the 110th word was "kitten"), but the rest was vague. But there isn't much time to think about it. We only have 15 seconds to answer. My time was ticking down. I panicked and jumped to an earlier point in my memory palace with an animal, where I used an image of a goose to remember the word "gossip." I was wrong and got knocked out. Two-time champion Ron White was knocked out next. Then Claire and Tuan battled it out to almost the 140th(!) word to see who would win the event. 

So I finished in the middle of the pack in a tournament where almost everyone is better than I am. I can't be upset about that. The rest of the field had to memorize more than 109 words in order to eliminate me. But I have regrets. Advancing past that round was certainly in my grasp. If I had just done more review for the last 20 words - and I definitely had time for that - I could have made it to the third event. With another review, I could have visualized the kitten stabbing the glass of rum with the pirate sword, with the rum reminding me of the word "RUMor." Then I would advance to the Tea Party, which I have never gotten through in the past, but then maybe I would be writing about a top-5 finish instead of middle-of-the-pack. I've been overly cautious. I shouldn't have focused so much on the first 100 words when 120 is well within my grasp. In the 2024 championship, I skipped too much in the Tea Party, preferring to memorize a small amount perfectly instead of a larger amount with maybe some errors. With a bit of luck, that strategy might finally get me through the Tea Party some day.

Event #3: Tea Party. Four "tea party guests" told us their name, birthday, occupation, and other info. The 7 remaining finalists had to memorize as much of it as they could. They were Nelson (6-time champ), Avi (2nd place in 2018, 3rd in 2024), Briley (2nd in 2024), Jason (2nd or 3rd a couple of years ago), Grace (also 2nd or 3rd a few years ago), Erdem (winner of the 2024 qualifier), and Tuan. I don't think Tuan has ever finished in the top 3, but he did beat Claire in words, which is something that very very few people can do. Erdem was first to be eliminated. Avi was next to go. Nelson was struggling and had made 2 mistakes, but it takes 3 to get eliminated. Jason had 1 error. But both of them managed to finish the event without any more errors. 

Event #4: Cards. This is the last event. They have 5 minutes to memorize 2 decks of cards. I figured Nelson was the favorite. It's hard to bet against a 6-time champion. Historically, Grace has struggled with cards. In a previous championship, Jason got eliminated quickly in cards, but he has improved since then. I didn't know how Tuan or Briley would fare. Tuan hasn't competed in a while, but he had been very impressive so far. Briley was very new to memory competitions - this is only his second event - but he was the runner up in the 2024 championship. The event got off to a shocking start. Nelson made an error on the 6th card! Of course he is capable of doing much more than that. But in this event, a single mistake eliminates you. Then Jason also messed up on the 6th card. Tuan made it a bit further, but then it was down to Grace vs. Briley. Was Grace going to win in what was usually her weakest event? But Briley looked so locked in. Grace started sounding very unsure of her answers, but she kept getting things right. Briley kept answering with almost no hesitation. Then Grace didn't know what the next card was. She had 15 seconds to answer, but it was clear from her facial expressions that she had no idea. Briley won the championship and gave an emotional speech afterwards. Congrats, Briley! 

World Chess Championship: Game 4 update

 Gukesh's chances improve after holding a draw with Black.

World Chess Championship: Game 3 update

First, we'll look at the traditional forecast, which is based on the player's ratings. Ding Liren's chances soared after he won the first game with Black. Given that he is the favorite in the rapid tiebreaks, his overall chances of retaining the title were around 50-50. Gukesh bounced back with a win in Game 3. However, a tied match after 3 games is good news for the underdog Ding Liren.

In my previous post, I also considered a forecast based on the players' performance ratings. Gukesh remains the big favorite:

World Chess Championship 2024

 Gukesh will face reigning champion Ding Liren in a 14-game match. Gukesh is the clear favorite, but Liren's chances are better than I expected:

However, Gukesh's rating has been soaring while Liren has been bleeding points. To find a month in which Liren has gained points, I had to go all the way back to May 2023. I calculated the performance ratings for both players in the second half of 2024. Gukesh has been playing at the 2800+ level; his performance at the Olympiad was one of the greatest of all time. Meanwhile, Liren's performance is in the mid-2600s. If I plug in the performance ratings, then Gukesh is the huge favorite.

However, if the match goes to tiebreaks, Liren has better chances. Gukesh's rapid rating is 2654, and this does not seem to be a fluke. While his classical rating was skyrocketing in 2024, his rapid rating actually declined. The first tiebreaker is a 4-game rapid match:

If the match is still tied, then they play two more rapid games:

Putting it all together: the forecast based on the ratings alone is

Gukesh wins: 0.6172 + (1 - 0.6172 - 0.2121) (0.14155) + (1 - 0.6172 - 0.2121) (1 - 0.14155 - 0.6509) (0.1611) = 64.71%

Liren wins: 0.2121 + (1 - 0.6172 - 0.2121) (0.6509) + (1 - 0.6172 - 0.2121) (1 - 0.14155 - 0.6509) (0.51675) = 34.15%

Which leaves about a 1% chance that the match will be decided in blitz tiebreaks.

The forecast based on performance ratings is 

Gukesh wins: 0.9186 + (1 - 0.9186 - 0.0403) (0.14155) + (1 - 0.9186 - 0.0403) (1 - 0.14155 - 0.6509) (0.1611) = 92.58%

Liren wins: 0.0403 + (1 - 0.9186 - 0.0403) (0.6509) + (1 - 0.9186 - 0.0403) (1 - 0.14155 - 0.6509) (0.51675) = 7.15%

USA Memory Championship 2024

I had a disappointing performance in the qualifier. For several days before the event, I was hovering on the edge of getting sick, then managed to fight it off. But that meant going into the qualifier without much training in the last week. But I still did well enough to make it to the finals. I flew to Orlando to compete against 11 other finalists at the end of September. Hurricane Helene largely spared the Orlando area, so the championship went ahead as scheduled.

The first event was Memory Match Overdrive, a game from Lumosity. We would have to remember if the card on the right was the same as the one that came three cards before it (i.e., the one on the far left of the screen). Then it would be turned over face down, all the cards would shift one place to the left, and a new card was turned over. Scoring is based on speed and accuracy. I didn't train very much for this event. No one would be eliminated; it would just set the seeding. I was pleasantly surprised to almost set a personal record, good enough for 7th place. Samay Shah dominated, nearly doubling my score. He has made it to the finals multiple times. Jason Smith, who has also been to the finals several times, took second place. Erdem Duluung (winner of the qualifier) was third, and 5X national champion Nelson Dellis was fourth.

Long Term Recall was next. We had been given a spreadsheet with trivia about all the US national parks (e.g. size in square miles, what year was it established in). There was substantially less information than in the past. It was just a two page spreadsheet. In previous years, we would have to memorize about 10 pages. The spreadsheet was given to us a month in advance. Because it was so short, I procrastinated for two weeks, but I still had enough time to memorize it all. We would answer questions about the material, and they got increasingly difficult as the event continued. Three incorrect answers and you are eliminated. The event would continue until the field of 12 finalists was reduced to 9. 

I was the first one to make a mistake. I was asked about which park in Arizona was established in 1994. I thought of two parks in Arizona, but neither one was established in 1994, and I only get 15 seconds to answer the question. There is only one other park in Arizona (Saguaro), and that was the correct answer. The other finalists were doing very well. In the past, several of them would struggle to memorize the vast amount of material, and the event would end quickly. But with just a two page spreadsheet, the rest of the field did much better.

The questions started getting tougher. A few of my rivals finally started to crack. Samay Shah was eliminated, and surprisingly, 5X champion Nelson Dellis missed two questions. Highschoolers Annabella Kang and Ian Liu were eliminated, and I didn't make any more mistakes. Dark horses Briley Lewis and Patricia Lee made zero mistakes, even though it was their first memory championship. I advanced to the next round, "Words to Remember."

We were given 15 minutes to memorize a list of 300 words. Last year, I was eliminated in this event, so I trained harder for it this time. No one memorizes all 300 words. I just had to know more than the last three competitors, since this event would reduce the field from 9 finalists to 6. Historically, memorizing the first 100 words was enough. But I could do 120 comfortably, so I attempted about 115. I made one dumb mistake around the 60th word. I memorize in pairs, and it was "impression - spoons." But somehow I made impressions plural. As soon as I said it, something felt wrong. But I got everything else right, and made it through the rest of the event comfortably. Amanda Zheng, who has competed in the past, was eliminated. We also lost Makenna Good (winner of the 2020 online championship) and first timer Patricia Lee. Patricia had won the numbers event in the qualifier, memorizing 80 digits in under 25 seconds - a stunning result.

The Tea Party was next. We would "meet" a tea party guest by watching a video where they told us their name, birthday, job, and more. After "meeting" all 6 guests, we would watch the videos one more time and then have 6 minutes to look at their information printed on paper. My 5 rivals were all very accomplished. Jason Smith and Avi Chavda had both won 2nd place in past. Erdem had won the qualifier. Nelson Dellis had won the US Championship more times than anyone else. And Briley was making an excellent debut - it seems that we always have one newcomer who shines in the championship. 

Even though the guests weren't talking too fast, it is hard to keep up with all that information. I knew this would be a challenge when I was training, so I had planned to skip about a third of the information. As in the other events, you don't have to know everything; you just need to know more than the finalists who get eliminated. Three mistakes and you are out. But when I was training, I had the computer read the script very slowly, so I was caught off guard when the people in the videos talked at a normal tempo. I quickly decided to skip half the information instead of a third. In the first round, Avi stumbled, forgetting a birthday. I got it right, and felt that I had a chance to make it. Historically, I often get eliminated in the Tea Party (2018, 2021, 2022). Erdem also made a mistake in the first round. I missed the next two questions; I had skipped the pets and favorite foods of the Tea Party guests. Erdem got eliminated. Avi missed another question, while I remembered a guests' alma mater. Meanwhile, Briley and Nelson had both made one mistake so far. Avi was asked about one of the guest's pets. He was on the cusp of elimination, but he nailed it. I was up next, and was asked about a guest's hobbies. I had skipped most of those. I remembered some hobbies, but I didn't know which guest liked them, so I tried that. It wasn't right, and I was knocked out. Jason started to stumble, and he was eliminated soon afterwards. Nelson, Briley, and Avi advanced to the last round. 

They had 5 minutes to memorize 2 decks of cards. Maybe the nerves finally got to them; the performance was surprisingly shaky. Avi messed up when they were only about halfway through the first deck. In the very next round, Briley made a mistake. Nelson was the last man standing, so he was crowned as champion for a 6th time, breaking his own record. He then tried to recite the rest of the first deck, but made multiple errors. "Not my best deck," he admitted later. 

Next up: the champions tournament in November. I'll have to train better for the Tea Party. Congrats Nelson!

US Championship 2024

 Despite the absence of Nakamura, the field is very strong.

The Olympiad and MinStrength

 Gukesh had an amazing result at the Olympiad. Let's see how it compares to other great performances. Last year, my article "MinStrength: An Alternative to Performance Rating" was published on ChessBase. The problem with performance ratings is that a perfect score always leads to an infinite performance - even against very weak opposition. By that metric, my 2/2 at the 2024 Virginia State Championship was better than Caruana's 2014 Sinquefield Cup. Obviously Caruana is the stronger player. 

In the article, I explained, "MinStrength asks, 'Who would not be expected to score as well as you did?'  Consider a 1500 player. Sometimes they have a bad tournament and play like a 1300. But there are other times when they perform at the 1700 level. But even in their best tournament ever, they don’t perform at the 2700 level and earn a GM norm. That is outside of their range. How low would your rating have to be for a result to be outside of your range? That is your minimum strength, or MinStrength." 

Gukesh scored 9.0/10 and his average opponent was 2690. That leads to a MinStrength of 2758, which is the second highest of all time. He is only behind Caruana's 2014 Sinquefield Cup (MinStrength 2830). He is ahead of many great performances, such as Karpov in Linares 1994 and Fischer's 6-0 victory against Larsen.

Sinquefield Cup 2024

The reigning world champion is the 9th seed in this event. That wasn't a sentence I ever thought I would write. He will face his challenger in one of his games.

Candidates 2024

Caruana is the rating favorite, but the field is very strong 

Tata Steel 2024

 World Champion Ding Liren is the top seed in the 14-player round robin.