World Chess Championship 2024

 Gukesh will face reigning champion Ding Liren in a 14-game match. Gukesh is the clear favorite, but Liren's chances are better than I expected:

However, Gukesh's rating has been soaring while Liren has been bleeding points. To find a month in which Liren has gained points, I had to go all the way back to May 2023. I calculated the performance ratings for both players in the second half of 2024. Gukesh has been playing at the 2800+ level; his performance at the Olympiad was one of the greatest of all time. Meanwhile, Liren's performance is in the mid-2600s. If I plug in the performance ratings, then Gukesh is the huge favorite.

However, if the match goes to tiebreaks, Liren has better chances. Gukesh's rapid rating is 2654, and this does not seem to be a fluke. While his classical rating was skyrocketing in 2024, his rapid rating actually declined. The first tiebreaker is a 4-game rapid match:

If the match is still tied, then they play two more rapid games:

Putting it all together: the forecast based on the ratings alone is

Gukesh wins: 0.6172 + (1 - 0.6172 - 0.2121) (0.14155) + (1 - 0.6172 - 0.2121) (1 - 0.14155 - 0.6509) (0.1611) = 64.71%

Liren wins: 0.2121 + (1 - 0.6172 - 0.2121) (0.6509) + (1 - 0.6172 - 0.2121) (1 - 0.14155 - 0.6509) (0.51675) = 34.15%

Which leaves about a 1% chance that the match will be decided in blitz tiebreaks.

The forecast based on performance ratings is 

Gukesh wins: 0.9186 + (1 - 0.9186 - 0.0403) (0.14155) + (1 - 0.9186 - 0.0403) (1 - 0.14155 - 0.6509) (0.1611) = 92.58%

Liren wins: 0.0403 + (1 - 0.9186 - 0.0403) (0.6509) + (1 - 0.9186 - 0.0403) (1 - 0.14155 - 0.6509) (0.51675) = 7.15%