Revenge against an IM

Back in 2019, IM Jay Bonin beat me in Round 1 of the New York State Championship. Recently, we played a pair of chaotic online blitz games:

[Event "Live Chess"] [Site "Chess.com"] [Date "2026.09.30"] [Round "?"] [White "Wilson, Matthew"] [Black "Bonin, IM Jay"] [Result "1-0"] [ECO "C42"] [WhiteElo "2477"] [BlackElo "2566"] [Annotator "Wilson,Matthew"] [PlyCount "37"] [EventDate "2026.??.??"] [TimeControl "180+2"] 1. e4 e5 2. Nf3 Nf6 3. Nxe5 Nc6 { The Stafford Gambit, a favorite of IM Eric Rosen} 4. Nxc6 dxc6 5. Nc3 Bc5 6. h3 Qd4 7. Qf3 Be6 8. d3 O-O-O 9. Be3 Qb4 10. O-O-O Bxe3+ 11. Qxe3 Qa5 12. Kb1 Rhe8 13. Be2 b5 14. Qc5 (14. a3 {is simpler}) 14... Nd7 { I had overlooked this move, but I'm still winning} 15. Qxc6 b4 16. Nb5 $2 (16. d4 $1 Nb8 (16... bxc3 17. Ba6+) 17. Qb5 $18) 16... Ne5 (16... Qxa2+ $2 17. Kc1 Qa1+ 18. Kd2 {leads nowhere. Black can't deal with the threats of Qxc7# and Nd6+ followed by Qb7#}) 17. Qc5 Qxa2+ $2 {The queen has to keep an eye on c7} ( 17... Bxa2+ 18. Kc1 Kb8 19. b3 Bxb3 20. cxb3 Nd7 { is a wild variation from the engine. After} 21. Qxa7+ Qxa7 22. Nxa7 Kxa7 { White is slightly better}) 18. Kc1 Nc4 $2 { A blunder, but Black was busted anyways.} (18... Qa1+ 19. Kd2 Nc4+ 20. Ke1 { looks scary, but Black runs out of checks and several things are hanging} Qa5) 19. Qxc7# 1-0

[Event "Live Chess"] [Site "Chess.com"] [Date "2026.11.04"] [Round "?"] [White "Wilson, Matthew"] [Black "Bonin, IM Jay"] [Result "1-0"] [ECO "C63"] [WhiteElo "2463"] [BlackElo "2481"] [Annotator "Wilson,Matthew"] [PlyCount "47"] [EventDate "2026.??.??"] [TimeControl "180+2"] 1. e4 e5 2. Nf3 Nc6 3. Bb5 f5 4. Nc3 Nf6 $6 { This is a known variation, but objectively it isn't good} 5. exf5 e4 6. Nh4 Bc5 {I haven't seen this move before.} (6... d5 7. d3 $16 {is in my prep}) 7. O-O O-O 8. d3 exd3 9. Bxd3 { White's extra pawn is secure and Black is struggling to show any compensation} d5 10. Bg5 Ne5 11. Re1 $4 (11. Nf3 Nxd3 12. Qxd3 c6 13. Rfe1 $16) 11... Neg4 $2 {Now the game gets completely crazy} (11... Bxf2+ $1 12. Kxf2 Nfg4+ { followed by ...Qxg5 regaining the material}) 12. Re2 c6 $6 (12... h6 13. Bxf6 Qxf6 14. g3 c6 15. Qd2 g5 $1 16. Ng6 Bxf5 17. Nxf8 Rxf8 18. Bxf5 Qxf5 19. Rf1 Ne5 20. Kg2 Qf3+ 21. Kg1 Qf5 {with a repetition. But two humans aren't going to find all this during a blitz game}) 13. h3 (13. g3 {is more accurate. After} h6 14. Bd2 {, the h4-knight is secure}) 13... Nxf2 $2 (13... h6 14. hxg4 hxg5 15. Ng6 Nxg4 16. Nxf8 Qxf8 17. Na4 Bd6 { and Black has compensation for the Exchange}) 14. Rxf2 Qb6 15. Qd2 Bxf2+ 16. Qxf2 Qxb2 {I thought I was busted, but then I found} 17. Qe1 $8 Re8 18. Be2 { My position is very awkward but I can hang on} d4 19. Bxf6 Qxc3 (19... gxf6 20. Bc4+ Kf8 21. Ne2 $18) 20. Bg5 $4 (20. Qxc3 dxc3 21. Bc4+ Kf8 22. Bxc3 { and White wins}) 20... Qxe1+ $4 (20... Rxe2 $1 {The White queen is overloaded}) 21. Rxe1 Kf8 22. Kf2 Bd7 23. Bf4 Re4 $4 24. Bd6+ $1 {The king has to move to a light square, and then a discovered check picks up the rook. Another wild game against Jay!} 1-0

World Chess Championship 2026

 Sindarov is the favorite, since his classical rating is 72 points higher. I built a new model for the rapid tiebreaker. I gathered games from the World Rapid Championships, and filtered out games where either player was below 2500 or from before rapid ratings existed. Then I created a generalized ordered logit model. Sindarov is also a favorite in the rapid tiebreaks; he is the #2 rapid player in the world while Gukesh is below 2700. 

US Chess Championship 2026

 The field is still very strong even though Nakamura and Dominguez are missing.

2026 US Memory Championship

I was one of 12 who made it through the qualifiers back in July. We were joined by 4 champions: Wes Twiggs, Nelson Dellis, Ron White, and Lance Tschirhart. After my flight was delayed by 4 hours, eventually I made it to Orlando on the night before the competition.

The first event was Long Term Recall. Four weeks earlier, we were given spreadsheets on Preakness winners (horse racing), video games, and signers of the Declaration of Independence. In total, it was about 7 pages. We would have to answer questions about the material; 2 mistakes and you are eliminated. I got a slow start. A few weeks ago, I had memorized a ton of financial regulations for the Security Industry Essentials (SIE) exam, and it takes a while for the images to fade from my memory palaces. So I started preparing about a week late and was still shaky on the video games section. Luckily, the first round of questions was about the Declaration of Independence. Several of my rivals stumbled, and when it was my turn, I nailed it. The next round was about horse racing. Casey Porter, a newcomer, made his second mistake and was eliminated. I had no problems when it was my turn. Then we moved on to the video games. James Cumming made his second mistake and was knocked out. He has been competing for several years and always does very well in the qualifying tournament. Soon it was my turn. Fortunately, I got a question that I knew. We moved on to harder questions about the Declaration of Independence. Sara Morici, competing for her second time, was knocked out. Adam Deng was also eliminated. It was his first time in the championship, but he had made an impression by winning the qualifier. I had talked to newcomer Grace Luo before the event, and she seemed very prepared, but she made her second mistake was knocked out. I advanced to the next round.

Next was words. We had 15 minutes to memorize up to 300 words. I decided to memorize 106. For most of the competition's history, memorizing 100 had always been enough. But a few years ago, I had been knocked out for knowing only 100, so I was a bit more ambitious this year. Competitors are eliminated if they make 2 mistakes. Usually I make 1 error and survive, but this time I was perfect. Dhruv Thogarchedu, competing for his second time, was eliminated quickly. I had met him back at the French Open in March. The rest of the field did very well, but finally they started to crack after about 90 words. Erdem Dulguun has been competing for several years and has done very well in the past, but he was eliminated. We also lost 2-time champion Ron White. Makenna Good (winner of the 2020 online competition) was also knocked out. Meanwhile, former champ Lance Tschirhart flexed his skills by memorizing 166 words. He had come out of retirement but was showing no signs of rust.

The third event was the Tea Party. We watch videos where 5 people introduce themselves, telling us their name, birthday, occupation, etc. This is where I usually stumble; I was eliminated here in 2018, 2021, 2022, and 2024. Finalists are eliminated after 3 mistakes. I trained a bit more this year. There is too much information for me to absorb it all, but now I could handle more of it. I only had to skip about half of it, focusing on memorizing the other half. Then I missed the first question. But I got the next one right. I stumbled on my 3rd question. Reigning champ Wes Twiggs made a few minor mistakes and was knocked out. Newcomers Arnav Ayyalasomayajula and Steve Ruppel were also eliminated. I got my next 2 questions right. However, the remaining finalists were doing very well. Lance had one minor mistake, while Jason Smith and 6-time champion Nelson Dellis had perfect scores. I made my third mistake and was knocked out. I got 3 questions right out of 6, my best performance ever in the Tea Party. Overall I got 4th place, tying my best result ever.

The last event was cards. The remaining finalists were Jason Smith, Lance Tschirhart, and Nelson Dellis. They had 5 minutes to memorize 2 decks of cards. One mistake leads to elimination, and the last man standing is the winner. Jason stumbled early. Nelson was answering quickly and confidently. He and Lance made it through the first deck with no errors. Deep into the second deck, Nelson finally made a mistake and was knocked out. Lance won his second championship.

Congrats Lance!!!

Uzchess Cup Masters

 Abdusattorov is the top seed in the 10-player round robin

MinStrength - Candidates update

Sindarov finished with 10/14,  which is the 6th best performance in history. MinStrength methodology 

1. Caruana, Sinquefield Cup 2014: MinStrength = 2830

2. Gukesh, Olympiad 2024: MinStrength = 2758

3. Carlsen, Nanjing 2009: MinStrength = 2755

4. Fischer, Candidates 1971 match against Larsen: MinStrength = 2737

5. Karpov, Linares 1994: MinStrength = 2736

6. Sindarov, Candidates 2026: MinStrength = 2718

7. Topalov, San Luis 2005: MinStrength = 2699

8. Fischer, Candidates 1971 match against Taimanov: MinStrength = 2697

9. Kasparov, Linares 1997: MinStrength = 2668

Candidates Update - Is Sindarov the GOAT?

 Halfway through the Candidates Tournament, Sindarov leads with 6.0/7. This is an incredible score against such a strong field. Here is how it compares with other great performances.

A few years ago, I developed MinStrength as an improvement over performance ratings. The updated list of top MinStrengths:

1. Caruana, Sinquefield Cup 2014: MinStrength = 2830

2. Gukesh, Olympiad 2024: MinStrength = 2758

3. Carlsen, Nanjing 2009: MinStrength = 2755

4. Sindarov, Candidates 2026: MinStrength = 2741*

*After 7 games

5. Fischer, Candidates 1971 match against Larsen: MinStrength = 2737

6. Karpov, Linares 1994: MinStrength = 2736

7. Topalov, San Luis 2005: MinStrength = 2699

8. Fischer, Candidates 1971 match against Taimanov: MinStrength = 2697

9. Kasparov, Linares 1997: MinStrength = 2668