2016 Tata Steel - Round 10

Caruana defeated Yi and now trails by just half a point.

Methodology

I have been working on a chess project off and on for the last several months (or maybe it has been a year by now). The goal was to find if the draw rate after 1.d4 is higher than after 1.e4. Just looking at the average draw rate can be misleading; in this article, I found that White tends to play 1.e4 when he is the underdog and 1.d4 when he is the favorite.

Unfortunately, the computer I'm using can't handle the massive dataset. They won't upgrade my work computer for at least a few months, so the project will be delayed. The results might help me improve the forecasts a bit.

2016 Tata Steel - Round 9

Carlsen won again and is now a point ahead of Caruana.

Methodology

2016 Tata Steel - Round 8

Carlsen took the lead after Caruana stumbled against Navara.

Methodology

2016 Tata Steel - Round 6

Liren and Carlsen caught up with Caruana.

Methodology

2016 Tata Steel - Round 4

It looks like Caruana was close to extending his lead to 3.5/4, but he only got a draw today.

Methodology

2016 Tata Steel - Round 3

Caruana is in clear first place with an impressive 2.5/3. Meanwhile, unless there is an error in the broadcast, it looks like Mamedyarov - Eljanov ended after White blundered a full rook.

Methodology

2016 Tata Steel

The 2016 Tata Steel tournament begins in a few days. It is a 14-player round robin with many of the top players in the world. Magnus Carlsen is the top seed; we will have to see if his rating will continue to recover.

Methodology

I have been trying to improve the model so that it would take into account whether a player has White or Black. Unfortunately, the computer has been choking on the large amount of data...