Methodology

If you have followed my posts very closely, you may have been able to piece together how the forecasts are generated. Here's all the information in one convenient place. It's only a few pages long and non-technical:

How the Forecast is Generated

The careful reader may note that the forecast does not account for whether a player has White or Black. This should not be much of an issue, since in each tournament, the number of Whites and Blacks is either equal or nearly equal. Thus, any errors should cancel out. 

Nevertheless, I have been working on a model that accounts for whether a player has White or Black in each game. The main motivation is not to make more accurate forecasts (any improvement will be too small to be noticed), but rather to test if the draw rate after 1.d4 is higher than it is after 1.e4. Currently, I am still refining the model and subjecting it to further testing.

Gashimov Memorial

Carlsen won his last game, finishing a full point above the rest of the field. Meanwhile in St. Louis, Garry Kasparov defeated Nigel Short by 8.5-1.5 in the Battle of the Legends.

Gashimov Memorial - Round 8

Anand won his game and is now the only one who can catch Carlsen. He trails by half a point with one round to go. The key games tomorrow will be Caruana - Anand and Carlsen - Mamedov.

Gashimov Memorial - Round 7

Carlsen won again and leads by a full point. Since there are only two rounds left, it is unlikely that anyone will catch up.

Gashimov Memorial - Round 6

Caruana toppled Kramnik; Carlsen continues to lead.

Gashimov Memorial - Round 5

Carlsen's chances greatly improved as he defeated Vachier-Lagrave while So fell to Anand.

Gashimov Memorial - Round 4

A non-Magnus-Carlsen is in first place. Wesley So defeated Mamedov while the remaining games were drawn.

Gashimov Memorial - Round 3

Carlsen and So won their games and are tied for first.

Gashimov Memorial - Round 2

Carlsen won, so now he is tied for first with Kramnik and So.

Gashimov Memorial - Round 1

Kramnik and So won their games in the first round. The rest of the games, including a rematch between Anand and Carlsen, ended in draws.

Gashimov Memorial

The 2015 Gashimov Memorial is coming up soon. It is a 10-player round robin with many of the world's very best players. Carlsen, Anand, Caruana, and Kramnik are among the participants. As always, Carlsen is the favorite, but it is slightly more likely than not that someone else will win.

2015 US Chess Championship - Round 10

Nakamura and Robson didn't take any chances today and drew their game. Onischuk won and could tie for first if he beats Nakamura while Robson fails to win.

2015 US Chess Championship - Round 9

Quite surprisingly, Wesley So lost by forfeit against Akobian. Apparently So was taking notes and had already been warned about it twice in his previous games. Nakamura and Robson both drew their games. Top seed Nakamura continues to lead.

2015 US Chess Championship - Round 8

Nakamura won and is alone in first place.

2015 US Chess Championship - Round 7

Nakamura's chances fell today, since he only drew while Robson and So won their games.

2015 US Chess Championship - Round 6

Wesley So lost in a time trouble scramble with Ray Robson. Meanwhile, Nakamura remains in first place after drawing Shankland.

2015 US Chess Championship - Round 5

Pre-tournament favorites Nakamura and So both prevailed today. Robson stumbled against Kamsky, so Nakamura is in sole first place.

2015 US Chess Championship - Round 4

All of the games were drawn today, so Nakamura and Robson continue to lead.

2015 US Chess Championship - Round 3

Sevian defeated So in a very complicated game. Nakamura drew against Kamsky and shares first with Robson.

2015 US Chess Championship - Round 2

Nakamura and So remain perfect with 2.0/2. Since they also are much higher rated than the opposition, it is highly likely that one of them will win the tournament.

2015 US Chess Championship - Round 1

Nakamura and So both won their games, boosting their chances. Akobian and Robson also prevailed, but the model is skeptical of their chances.