Saturday, November 7, 2026

Revenge against an IM

Back in 2019, IM Jay Bonin beat me in Round 1 of the New York State Championship. Recently, we played a pair of chaotic online blitz games:

[Event "Live Chess"] [Site "Chess.com"] [Date "2026.09.30"] [Round "?"] [White "Wilson, Matthew"] [Black "Bonin, IM Jay"] [Result "1-0"] [ECO "C42"] [WhiteElo "2477"] [BlackElo "2566"] [Annotator "Wilson,Matthew"] [PlyCount "37"] [EventDate "2026.??.??"] [TimeControl "180+2"] 1. e4 e5 2. Nf3 Nf6 3. Nxe5 Nc6 { The Stafford Gambit, a favorite of IM Eric Rosen} 4. Nxc6 dxc6 5. Nc3 Bc5 6. h3 Qd4 7. Qf3 Be6 8. d3 O-O-O 9. Be3 Qb4 10. O-O-O Bxe3+ 11. Qxe3 Qa5 12. Kb1 Rhe8 13. Be2 b5 14. Qc5 (14. a3 {is simpler}) 14... Nd7 { I had overlooked this move, but I'm still winning} 15. Qxc6 b4 16. Nb5 $2 (16. d4 $1 Nb8 (16... bxc3 17. Ba6+) 17. Qb5 $18) 16... Ne5 (16... Qxa2+ $2 17. Kc1 Qa1+ 18. Kd2 {leads nowhere. Black can't deal with the threats of Qxc7# and Nd6+ followed by Qb7#}) 17. Qc5 Qxa2+ $2 {The queen has to keep an eye on c7} ( 17... Bxa2+ 18. Kc1 Kb8 19. b3 Bxb3 20. cxb3 Nd7 { is a wild variation from the engine. After} 21. Qxa7+ Qxa7 22. Nxa7 Kxa7 { White is slightly better}) 18. Kc1 Nc4 $2 { A blunder, but Black was busted anyways.} (18... Qa1+ 19. Kd2 Nc4+ 20. Ke1 { looks scary, but Black runs out of checks and several things are hanging} Qa5) 19. Qxc7# 1-0



[Event "Live Chess"] [Site "Chess.com"] [Date "2026.11.04"] [Round "?"] [White "Wilson, Matthew"] [Black "Bonin, IM Jay"] [Result "1-0"] [ECO "C63"] [WhiteElo "2463"] [BlackElo "2481"] [Annotator "Wilson,Matthew"] [PlyCount "47"] [EventDate "2026.??.??"] [TimeControl "180+2"] 1. e4 e5 2. Nf3 Nc6 3. Bb5 f5 4. Nc3 Nf6 $6 { This is a known variation, but objectively it isn't good} 5. exf5 e4 6. Nh4 Bc5 {I haven't seen this move before.} (6... d5 7. d3 $16 {is in my prep}) 7. O-O O-O 8. d3 exd3 9. Bxd3 { White's extra pawn is secure and Black is struggling to show any compensation} d5 10. Bg5 Ne5 11. Re1 $4 (11. Nf3 Nxd3 12. Qxd3 c6 13. Rfe1 $16) 11... Neg4 $2 {Now the game gets completely crazy} (11... Bxf2+ $1 12. Kxf2 Nfg4+ { followed by ...Qxg5 regaining the material}) 12. Re2 c6 $6 (12... h6 13. Bxf6 Qxf6 14. g3 c6 15. Qd2 g5 $1 16. Ng6 Bxf5 17. Nxf8 Rxf8 18. Bxf5 Qxf5 19. Rf1 Ne5 20. Kg2 Qf3+ 21. Kg1 Qf5 {with a repetition. But two humans aren't going to find all this during a blitz game}) 13. h3 (13. g3 {is more accurate. After} h6 14. Bd2 {, the h4-knight is secure}) 13... Nxf2 $2 (13... h6 14. hxg4 hxg5 15. Ng6 Nxg4 16. Nxf8 Qxf8 17. Na4 Bd6 { and Black has compensation for the Exchange}) 14. Rxf2 Qb6 15. Qd2 Bxf2+ 16. Qxf2 Qxb2 {I thought I was busted, but then I found} 17. Qe1 $8 Re8 18. Be2 { My position is very awkward but I can hang on} d4 19. Bxf6 Qxc3 (19... gxf6 20. Bc4+ Kf8 21. Ne2 $18) 20. Bg5 $4 (20. Qxc3 dxc3 21. Bc4+ Kf8 22. Bxc3 { and White wins}) 20... Qxe1+ $4 (20... Rxe2 $1 {The White queen is overloaded}) 21. Rxe1 Kf8 22. Kf2 Bd7 23. Bf4 Re4 $4 24. Bd6+ $1 {The king has to move to a light square, and then a discovered check picks up the rook. Another wild game against Jay!} 1-0

World Chess Championship 2026

 Sindarov is the favorite, since his classical rating is 72 points higher. I built a new model for the rapid tiebreaker. I gathered games from the World Rapid Championships, and filtered out games where either player was below 2500 or from before rapid ratings existed. Then I created a generalized ordered logit model. Sindarov is also a favorite in the rapid tiebreaks; he is the #2 rapid player in the world while Gukesh is below 2700.