Sindarov is the favorite, since his classical rating is 72 points higher. I built a new model for the rapid tiebreaker. I gathered games from the World Rapid Championships, and filtered out games where either player was below 2500 or from before rapid ratings existed. Then I created a generalized ordered logit model. Sindarov is also a favorite in the rapid tiebreaks; he is the #2 rapid player in the world while Gukesh is below 2700.
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