St. Louis Rapid & Blitz

Normally I don't forecast rapid and blitz tournaments. My database has far fewer games at these time controls, so there is much uncertainty about the draw rate. Also, the rapid and blitz ratings are based on a far smaller number of games; this also leads to doubts about their reliability.

That being said, since GARRY is coming out of retirement, the event is too exciting to not make a forecast. In addition to the caveats above, remember that Kasparov's rating is more than 10 years out of date. Here is the forecast for the rapid section. I assumed a 40% draw rate, since that was the result in earlier blitz and rapid events in the 2016 Grand Chess Tour.

And the blitz:

The rapid portion is a round robin; the blitz is a double round robin.

There is a lot of uncertainty and speculation about how Kasparov will perform. Using the rating he had a decade ago is definitely questionable, so I thought of a more reliable way. Last year, Kasparov played in a blitz tournament with Caruana, So, and Nakamura after the US Chess Championship. He definitely did not embarrass himself: he scored 9.5/18 and briefly lead the tournament. And back in 2015, he demolished Nigel Short by 8.5-1.5. Though Short was well past his prime, he is still in the world's top 100.

A better estimate of Kasparov's blitz rating would be to take his performance rating from the 2016 tournament, which was 2778. The new forecast for the blitz portion is below.

There is hardly any data that I could use to update Kasparov's rapid rating. He beat Short by 1.5-0.5 in the rapid part of their 2015 match. But that's just 2 games. I would want a larger sample before making any new predictions. And if you think his 2812 rating is an overestimate in the rapids, remember that he actually did even better in the rapid match with Short, performing around 2900.

In any case, Garry definitely has a chance of winning the tournament.

E4stat visits Round 7 of the Sinquefield Cup

I arrived early, so the visit began with a trip to the Kingside Diner and the World Chess Hall of Fame gift shop. Those of you who have little pawns can buy this shirt for them. I wonder if Sergey Karjakin got this shirt for his newborn son?

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After lingering in the gift shop, I went to the playing hall. None of the players had arrived yet, so I had time to take pictures of the banners. GARRY is coming to the Rapid & Blitz. Yes, that Garry.

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They had a display for the US Chess Championship

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Alas, the reigning US Champion and 2016 Sinquefield Cup winner had a horrible tournament. Here Wesley So prepares to face Fabiano Caruana. The game was a thoroughly unexciting draw.

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Fabiano Caruana was surrounded by fans after his interview. GM Alejandro Ramirez is second from the left.

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Nakamura lost a complicated game to Aronian. Team USA did not do well in this tournament.

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Levon Aronian, winner of the 2015 Sinquefield Cup, came close to winning the tournament again. After beating Nakamura, he was tied for first after Round 7. Here he waits for Nakamura to find a move.

Nakamura played 17.c4; now Aronian gets back to work.

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MVL won the tournament. In this round, he played the white side of the Berlin endgame. But don't accuse him of being boring - it was a tense game. He rattled off about 30 moves of preparation while Karjakin was taking long thinks. But the "Minister of Defense" was up to the task and held a draw. Karjakin later tweeted, "I have checked my notes. I knew everything till 38...Ne4. But had to spend about 2 hours to remember :D!"

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Calm while under fire: Sergey Karjakin. 

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Vishy Anand had a good tournament. In this round, he played the white side of a sharp Sicilian Najdorf. 

Ian Nepomniachtchi played Black against Vishy. The game was heading toward a draw, but then Nepo tried an unwise simplifying trick.

Nepo played 31...b4 32.cxb4 Rcc2, and at first glance, it appears that the two rooks on the 7th rank should be able to force a draw. But Anand replied with 33.b3! and his queenside pawns quickly overpowered Black's defenses.  With this victory, Vishy was tied for first, but in the end, he had to settle for a tie for second with Carlsen.

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The World Champion was back in form, scoring +2 and tying for second. Peter Svidler played the Scotch against him. Eventually Carlsen was up a pawn in a rook ending, but Svidler held a draw.

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I love the commentary by Yasser Seirawan, Jennifer Shahade, and Maurice Ashley, but in the Round 9 broadcast, they botched a tactic. Here they were considering what would have happened if Karjakin had played 33...Rde8. Can you find the refutation? White to play.

Sinquefield Cup

I will be out of town when the Sinquefield Cup starts, so I'm posting the forecast early. I will return in time to catch the last few rounds; pictures will be posted. I'm especially excited about the rapid and blitz tournaments that are coming up - GARRY KASPAROV is coming out of retirement to play there.

Methodology


E4stat has a new logo: a bivariate normal distribution under a chessboard.

Dortmund Sparkassen Chess Meeting

Kramnik is the top seed; he has won the tournament a number of times in the past.

Methodology

Danzhou Grandmaster tournament forecast

This tournament began a few days ago. The top seed is Ding Liren, who is currently in the world's top ten. Here is the forecast before the tournament started:

The tournament began rather peacefully (90% draws in the first 2 rounds), so the forecast doesn't change very much after Round 2.

Methodology

Real GDP per capita by state

(To the chess players following my blog: this is my only post that isn't about chess. I will get back to forecasting top tournaments shortly)

In the US, we have 50 economic laboratories (or states, as normal people call them) in which to conduct policy experiments. But until recently, it was difficult to assess the results. This is because prices vary enormously across the country. In my personal experience, $1000 in Kirksville, Missouri will buy a lot more than $1000 in Seattle, Washington. As a result, incomes are not directly comparable across states and regions. If average income in State X is $50,000 while it's $40,000 in State Y, we shouldn't assume that State X is richer. If everything in State X is twice as expensive, then its residents actually have less buying power.

So the price level in a state matters, and if we don't account for it, then our results might be misleading. Fortunately, GeoFRED now has price data from all 50 states. The Regional Price Parity Index is scaled so that it equals 100 for the average across all the states. I combined this with data on state GDP and population. The result is GDP per capita data that is adjusted for the state's price level. Here are a two maps with the results for 2015.

And here is the table with the numbers. The richest state is...Washington D.C., which isn't a state. The state with the highest real GDP per capita is North Dakota. Missouri is around the middle of the pack. There is a huge amount of variation across states. North Dakota's real GDP per capita is nearly double that of Mississippi. Adjusting for state price levels can make a large difference. For example, in nominal dollars, Hawaii appears to be doing well, but once the high cost of living is factored in, it is actually one of the poorer states.

Rank    Real GDP PC  State

1          154,421.3373   District of Columbia

2          80060.5584     North Dakota

3          72652.66931   Delaware

4          69851.81862   Wyoming

5          68527.06189   Alaska

6          67302.29894   Massachusetts

7          66127.30755   Nebraska

8          65776.80559   Connecticut

9          63491.70446   New York

10        62362.12019   Iowa

11        62209.54228   South Dakota

12        61205.92307   Minnesota

13        60680.76384   Texas

14        60324.22161   Illinois

15        59490.66586   Washington

16        58668.9758     Ohio

17        57786.80952   Kansas

18        56566.837       Pennsylvania

19        56347.08586   California

20        56281.47129   Louisiana

21        56165.73898   Virginia

22        56162.43017   Wisconsin

23        55740.34301   Maryland

24        55720.95019   Colorado

25        55696.53155   New Jersey

26        55581.05966   Indiana

27        54604.03253   North Carolina

28        54233.0421     Oregon

29        53946.792       Missouri

30        53522.22254   Oklahoma

31        53412.85035   Rhode Island

32        53408.90286   Tennessee

33        53177.80317   New Hampshire

34        53101.21558   Georgia

35        51397.26629   Utah

36        50750.32633   Michigan

37        49917.14963   Nevada

38        48950.75208   Kentucky

39        47633.61484   Vermont

40        47604.77343   Hawaii

41        47473.56822   New Mexico

42        47465.52086   Alabama

43        46856.86443   Montana

44        45662.75954   South Carolina

45        45598.63808   Arkansas

46        44836.66775   West Virginia

47        44438.22669   Arizona

48        44004.59498   Maine

49        43877.81112   Florida

50        42403.47641   Idaho

51        41085.36712   Mississippi

Sources: 

Regional Price Parities: All Items by State (Index) from GeoFRED

Resident Population by State (Thousands of Persons) from GeoFRED

Total Gross Domestic Product by State (Millions of Dollars) from GeoFRED

The maps were created using Google's Fusion Tables

Altibox Norway Chess

The Norway Chess Tournament has begun. Will Wesley So continue to dominate elite tournaments? Will Carlsen reassert his status as World Champion? Or will some other top player prevail? Here's my forecast.

Methodology