GM clobbers e4stat

I went to a rapid tournament (G/15 +2) at the St. Louis Chess Club on Saturday. In the second round, I faced GM Alejandro Ramirez. Here's how you beat a 2000 player and make it look easy:

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[Event "Saturday Night Special"] [Site "St. Louis"] [Date "2018.01.20"] [Round "2"] [White "Ramirez, GM Alejandro"] [Black "Wilson, Matthew (e4stat)"] [Result "1-0"] [ECO "A30"] [WhiteElo "2572"] [BlackElo "2069"] [Annotator "Wilson,Matthew"] [PlyCount "74"] 1. c4 c5 2. g3 e6 3. Bg2 Nf6 4. Nf3 Nc6 5. b3 {This move order managed to confuse me. After 5.Nc3, I play 5...Qb6 to block d2-d4. But that makes less sense with a b2-bishop to prepare the pawn break. So I played flexibly, developing my bishop and castling and hoping he would commit his knight.} Be7 6. Bb2 O-O 7. O-O Qc7 {The queen doesn't belong on this square} 8. Nc3 a6 9. Rc1 Qb6 {After d4 ...cxd4, the c-file opens up and White has Nd5 tactics, so I move out of the potential pin} 10. e3 {White wants to recapture on d4 with a pawn. Then the threat of a d4-d5! pawn break causes Black headaches} Rd8 11. Qe2 d5 12. cxd5 exd5 13. Na4 Qa7 14. Bxf6 gxf6 {I thought that my weakened kingside wouldn't be much of an issue. That turned out to be wrong!} 15. d4 cxd4 16. Nxd4 Nxd4 17. exd4 Be6 18. Nc5 Bxc5 19. dxc5 Rac8 20. Qe3 {A strong move. White covers c5 and eyes the vulnerable Black kingside} d4 21. Qh6 Rxc5 22. Qxf6 Rd7 {I thought that the exchange of the passed c5-pawn for my doubled f-pawn favored me. The next move ends any such illusions.} 23. Be4 d3 24. Qh6 d2 {With the clock ticking down, I had a crazy idea: once he plays Bxh7+, there are no good discoveries!} 25. Bxh7+ Kh8 26. Rcd1 Qb8 {I was down to seconds and committed a horrible blunder, but Black is already busted} 27. Bg6+ Kg8 28. Bh7+ Kh8 29. Bb1+ Kg8 30. Qh7+ Kf8 31. Qh8+ Ke7 32. Qxb8 Bg4 33. Rxd2 Rxd2 34. Qf4 Rd1 35. Qxg4 Rxf1+ 36. Kxf1 Rc1+ 37. Kg2 Rxb1 {He held out his hand. I was unsure why - obviously he isn't resigning! Then I noticed that my flag had fallen} 1-0

In the next round, I punished a 1500 for playing too solidly in the Sveshnikov. It's absolutely necessary for Black to be energetic and create counterplay.

[Event "Saturday Night Special"] [Site "St. Louis"] [Date "2018.01.20"] [Round "3"] [White "Wilson, Matthew"] [Black "Soerensen, Morton"] [Result "1-0"] [ECO "B33"] [WhiteElo "2069"] [BlackElo "1542"] [Annotator "Wilson,Matthew"] [PlyCount "53"] 1. e4 c5 2. Nf3 Nc6 3. d4 cxd4 4. Nxd4 Nf6 5. Nc3 e5 6. Ndb5 d6 7. Bg5 a6 8. Na3 b5 9. Bxf6 gxf6 10. Nd5 Bg7 11. Bd3 O-O {11...Ne7 is the book move. Black must contest the d5-square} 12. O-O Be6 13. Qh5 {I like this move. Now Black can't take the d5-knight without dropping a piece.} Ne7 14. c4 b4 {Now White has complete control} 15. Nc2 {There's no need to get entangled in 15.Nxb4 Rb8 and ...Rxb2} a5 16. Rae1 Rb8 {Black can't create counterplay with ...f5. Also, he can't eliminate the monster on d5 since that would open up the b1-h7 diagonal} 17. Nce3 {This gets in the way of the rook lift I prepared earlier, but it does prevent Black from starting any counterplay with ...b4-b3. I avoided 17.b3 since then Black could potentially open up the queenside with ...a5-a4. After 17.Nce3, the queenside remains closed and there is very little that Black can do about White's grip on the rest of the board.} Ng6 18. Nf5 Bxd5 {A blunder in a difficult position} 19. exd5 Nf4 20. Qg4 Ng6 21. h4 {Winning material} Kh8 22. h5 Rg8 23. hxg6 fxg6 24. Nxg7 Rxg7 25. Qe2 {25.f4 allows ...Qb6+, which could be annoying. So first I drop back, intending to meet ...Qb6+ ideas with Qe3 or Qf2} f5 26. f4 e4 27. Bc2 {I don't remember the rest of the moves, but White eventually won} 1-0

Tata Steel 2018

The Tata Steel tournament begins in a few days. It is a 14-player round robin starring Magnus Carlsen and several other top players. The forecast:

Methodology

London chess tournament

The London Chess Classic begins in a few days. The World Champion will be playing along with much of the top 10. Here is the forecast based on 20,000 simulations:

Methodology

Those of you who came here from my economics website might be more interested in this post: real GDP per capita by state. With data from GEOfred, I take GDP per capita by state and correct it for differences in prices across states.

St. Louis Rapid & Blitz - Forecast update

The rust finally showed. Kasparov did well in his demolition of Nigel Short (8.5-1.5) a few years ago and in the blitz tournament following the 2016 US Championship (+1 against Nakamura, Caruana, and So). But in St. Louis he was far from his old self. His rapid performance rating was just 2695. An earlier forecast was based on his much stronger performances in earlier exhibitions. The latest forecast below is for the blitz portion of the tournament. The estimate for Kasparov's rating is taken directly from his performance rating in the rapid portion.

E4stat visits the St. Louis Rapid and Blitz

Before you ask: I saw Garry Kasparov, but I didn't get his picture.

My visit to St. Louis was strategically timed. I thought that it would be better to arrive during the rapid section; in the blitz section, the players would be moving too quickly for me to get good pictures. I also thought that it would be better to come on Tuesday instead of Monday; many fans would gladly take a 3-day weekend to see Garry.

My strategy didn't work so well. I've never seen the St. Louis Chess Club this packed. There was a long line to get into the tournament hall in Round 4:

I think the player in the far right of the picture is Sabina Foisor. The tournament hall was actually so crowded that they stopped letting us in. I didn't get up there until Round 5.

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David Navara just before his game with Anand in Round 5. He has been struggling and will face Garry Kasparov in Round 7. Garry cannot be pleased with his -1 score so far and will be hungry for a win.

Navara secured a very comfortable position, but then he let his king get into trouble in the endgame. He was forced to sacrifice the exchange. Anand then converted his advantage.

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Dominguez has an even score after 6 rounds. Here he prepared to face Caruana in Round 5.

 

Caruana, playing White, had the following position on move 37. He should be fighting for a draw, but this is rapid chess. Somehow Caruana won! I suppose this balances out Caruana's tragic loss to Liem in Round 1.

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GM Liem won a complicated game against Aronian in Round 5.

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Between rounds, I spotted Caruana chatting with GM Ramirez outside the Kingside Diner



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The Chess.com team was also present. Peter Doggers is on the left and Mike Klein is on the right.

St. Louis Rapid & Blitz

Normally I don't forecast rapid and blitz tournaments. My database has far fewer games at these time controls, so there is much uncertainty about the draw rate. Also, the rapid and blitz ratings are based on a far smaller number of games; this also leads to doubts about their reliability.

That being said, since GARRY is coming out of retirement, the event is too exciting to not make a forecast. In addition to the caveats above, remember that Kasparov's rating is more than 10 years out of date. Here is the forecast for the rapid section. I assumed a 40% draw rate, since that was the result in earlier blitz and rapid events in the 2016 Grand Chess Tour.

And the blitz:

The rapid portion is a round robin; the blitz is a double round robin.

There is a lot of uncertainty and speculation about how Kasparov will perform. Using the rating he had a decade ago is definitely questionable, so I thought of a more reliable way. Last year, Kasparov played in a blitz tournament with Caruana, So, and Nakamura after the US Chess Championship. He definitely did not embarrass himself: he scored 9.5/18 and briefly lead the tournament. And back in 2015, he demolished Nigel Short by 8.5-1.5. Though Short was well past his prime, he is still in the world's top 100.

A better estimate of Kasparov's blitz rating would be to take his performance rating from the 2016 tournament, which was 2778. The new forecast for the blitz portion is below.

There is hardly any data that I could use to update Kasparov's rapid rating. He beat Short by 1.5-0.5 in the rapid part of their 2015 match. But that's just 2 games. I would want a larger sample before making any new predictions. And if you think his 2812 rating is an overestimate in the rapids, remember that he actually did even better in the rapid match with Short, performing around 2900.

In any case, Garry definitely has a chance of winning the tournament.

E4stat visits Round 7 of the Sinquefield Cup

I arrived early, so the visit began with a trip to the Kingside Diner and the World Chess Hall of Fame gift shop. Those of you who have little pawns can buy this shirt for them. I wonder if Sergey Karjakin got this shirt for his newborn son?

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After lingering in the gift shop, I went to the playing hall. None of the players had arrived yet, so I had time to take pictures of the banners. GARRY is coming to the Rapid & Blitz. Yes, that Garry.

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They had a display for the US Chess Championship

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Alas, the reigning US Champion and 2016 Sinquefield Cup winner had a horrible tournament. Here Wesley So prepares to face Fabiano Caruana. The game was a thoroughly unexciting draw.

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Fabiano Caruana was surrounded by fans after his interview. GM Alejandro Ramirez is second from the left.

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Nakamura lost a complicated game to Aronian. Team USA did not do well in this tournament.

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Levon Aronian, winner of the 2015 Sinquefield Cup, came close to winning the tournament again. After beating Nakamura, he was tied for first after Round 7. Here he waits for Nakamura to find a move.

Nakamura played 17.c4; now Aronian gets back to work.

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MVL won the tournament. In this round, he played the white side of the Berlin endgame. But don't accuse him of being boring - it was a tense game. He rattled off about 30 moves of preparation while Karjakin was taking long thinks. But the "Minister of Defense" was up to the task and held a draw. Karjakin later tweeted, "I have checked my notes. I knew everything till 38...Ne4. But had to spend about 2 hours to remember :D!"

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Calm while under fire: Sergey Karjakin. 

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Vishy Anand had a good tournament. In this round, he played the white side of a sharp Sicilian Najdorf. 

Ian Nepomniachtchi played Black against Vishy. The game was heading toward a draw, but then Nepo tried an unwise simplifying trick.

Nepo played 31...b4 32.cxb4 Rcc2, and at first glance, it appears that the two rooks on the 7th rank should be able to force a draw. But Anand replied with 33.b3! and his queenside pawns quickly overpowered Black's defenses.  With this victory, Vishy was tied for first, but in the end, he had to settle for a tie for second with Carlsen.

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The World Champion was back in form, scoring +2 and tying for second. Peter Svidler played the Scotch against him. Eventually Carlsen was up a pawn in a rook ending, but Svidler held a draw.

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I love the commentary by Yasser Seirawan, Jennifer Shahade, and Maurice Ashley, but in the Round 9 broadcast, they botched a tactic. Here they were considering what would have happened if Karjakin had played 33...Rde8. Can you find the refutation? White to play.