World Championship forecast

Magnus Carlsen shed a few more points. However, he would be the heavy favorite in the rapid tiebreaks.

Olympiad and World Championship forecast

Caruana gained 5 points at the Olympiad. Now he is just 7 points behind Carlsen.

2018 Sinquefield Cup and World Championship forecast

Carlsen, Caruana, and Aronian tied for 1st in the Sinquefield Cup. As a result, the gap between the Champion and the Challenger narrowed to just 12 rating points.

2018 Sinquefield Cup

Carlsen and Caruana will be playing in the Sinquefield Cup; their game is certainly one that will be watched closely. Carlsen remains the favorite. However, Caruana has been narrowing the gap between them. Given that Carlsen dropped some rating points in Biel, it's conceivable - though unlikely - that Caruana could overtake him.

Biel and forecast update for the World Championship

Mamedyarov won convincingly in Biel. Carlsen finished second and shed some rating points. He is just 14 points ahead of Caruana in the live ratings. However, Caruana is much worse in rapid and blitz, so it is almost as if Carlsen has draw odds. As I have cautioned earlier, it's difficult to predict the rapid tiebreaks. There are far fewer rapid games in my database; as a result, there is more uncertainty about the draw rate.

Danzhou 2018

It looks like the tournament will be an 8-player round robin. I think Shankland is the player to watch. He won the US Championship ahead of Caruana, So, and Nakamura; then he continued to gain points. Can he keep it up? If so, American players will start talking about "The Big Four" instead of  "The Big Three." Our forecast:

Biel 2018

The Biel tournament starts soon. The World Champion is the top seed in this 6-player double round robin.

Usually I conclude with a link to the methodology paper, but instead I have pinned that link to the "About Me" section of the blog.