2014 US Championship

Round 1 of the US Chess Championship began today. Kamsky is the clear favorite due to his 2713 Elo rating, nearly 50 points above his closest rival (Nakamura declined to participate). The format is a 12-player round robin featuring America's top chess talent.

Your blogger once had the honor of playing a two game match against Akobian in a blitz tournament. The result was predictable.

After 40,000 simulations, we have our first forecast for the tournament. Kamsky has a better chance than anyone else, but don't be shocked if he doesn't win. As usual, the first column sums to more than 100% because multiple players can tie for first.

What would happen if the tournament was a double-round robin instead? Kamsky's chances of at least tying for 1st would rise to around 56%; he would win the tournament outright 45% of the time. A big problem with many tournaments and the World Championship is that they are far too short. Even if one player is definitely better than the rest, there are so few games that an upset could easily occur and a weaker player is crowned victor. As more games are played, there is less scope for luck and the stronger player will more likely prevail.

Round 1 update: Robson and Lenderman emerge as the early leaders.

In the new forecast, Robson's chances climbed the most.