The last round of a tournament is often difficult to predict since the players frequently have a strong incentive to play for a particular result. For instance, one player may have must-win game while another player might just want a quick draw. This can distort the draw percentages, which are important for the forecast. In most tournaments, two leaders playing against each other in the final round is a recipe for a short draw, but here Akobian and Lenderman might not want to risk entering a playoff with Kamsky. In their post-game interview, I didn't detect any signs that they were planning on a peaceful last game. Thus, the probability of a draw in Akobian - Lenderman may be less that 0.55, which the model assumes based on grandmaster games in my database. A lower draw rate will diminish Akobian's and Kamsky's chances while increasing Lenderman's. On the other hand, Kamsky may be inclined to take more risks in his last round game with Friedel, since Kamsky has to win in order to have a shot at 1st place. Therefore the draw percentage in Kamsky - Friedel may also be lower than the model assumes, and Kamsky's chances may need to be revised upwards.
The standings are incomplete because some games are still being played this round, but none of the other players can win the tournament.
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