2014 Sinquefield Cup Round 2

Caruana seized the lead with victories over Topalov and Vachier-Lagrave in the first two rounds. Aronian saw his chances improve in the second round as he beat Topalov. Meanwhile the World Champion is off to a slow start with two draws, though he is still the favorite in the latest forecast. As usual, the fact that multiple players can tie for first means that the numbers in the first column will sum to more than 100%, while the total in the second column will be less than 100%.

The previous post mentioned Nakamura's poor score against Carlsen: 15 draws, 10 losses, and 0 wins. Today he improved that record with a draw in round 2. A statistical test resoundingly rejects the hypothesis that the players are equal. If they were, then there is less than a 0.5% chance of seeing a score this lopsided over their 26-game history. There can be little doubt that Carlsen is the stronger player. But this was never in dispute; the typical claim is that Carlsen is an especially difficult opponent for Nakamura, so he performs worse than would be expected given his rating. However, the disparity in their ratings seems to explain much, if not all, of Carlsen's success against Nakamura. Based on the ratings in their previous games, Elo's formula would predict that Carlsen would have a slight plus score: 15-11. The actual score of 18-8 is not radically different; such a mismatch between the actual and expected scores will occur about 10.7% of the time. Hence, we can't dismiss the simple explanation that Nakamura's struggles against Carlsen are driven entirely by the difference in their ratings. He doesn't necessarily have any special difficulties when playing against the World Champion.