As usual, the fact that multiple players can tie for first implies that the numbers in the first column sum to more than 100% while the second column will be less than 100%.
It is well known that Nakamura struggles against Carlsen; at classical time controls, he has 15 draws, 10 losses, and 0 wins. This could be because Carlsen has been consistently higher rated, but at first glance the disparity seems too large for that to be the sole explanation. By tomorrow I should have results from a statistical test that will determine if Carlsen significantly outperforms his rating when playing against Nakamura.
Meanwhile, I found that there is no clear trend in the draw rate over the years. If chess were being "played out," we would see the draw rate rise over time, but there is no evidence of that. More details to come later, as well as analysis of whether 1.e4 or 1.d4 has a higher draw rate once everything else is accounted for.
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