2014 Sinquefield Cup - Round 6

Thanks to another Caruana victory, the forecast is not very exciting - realistically, there is no chance that anyone will overtake him in the standings. It feels like we are watching chess history firsthand - that the 2014 Sinquefield Cup will be remembered in the same way as 1994 Linares, Fischer - Larsen, Fischer - Taimanov, 2005 San Luis, and other fantastic performances.

A more interesting question was brought up in the live commentary: before the tournament, what was the probability that Caruana would start 6 - 0 ? According to my model, the answer is 0.011%, which is about 1 in 9000. Even if we expand the question to "what is the chance that one player - not necessarily Caruana - will begin with 6 - 0?", the chances still have to be below 0.1%.