Once Vachier-Lagrave played Rf1, giving up castling, I realized that Caruana was going to reach 7 - 0. Amazing. There is just a 0.19% chance that Carlsen will catch up with Caruana and tie for first; that would involve Caruana losing his next 3 games while Carlsen wins every remaining game.
Before the tournament, if you asked me how likely Caruana's 7 - 0 start would be, I would have answered 0.003%. This probably occurred only once in the 30,000 simulations I ran in order to generate the original forecast. According to the model, Caruana has a 14% chance of defeating Carlsen tomorrow, so the chance of (dare we contemplate it?) 8 - 0 would have been about 0.00004%. Chess history is unfolding before our eyes.
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