3rd FIDE Grand Prix - Round 10

All of the games ended in draws, so Tomashevsky clinched first place.

3rd FIDE Grand Prix - Round 9

Tomashevsky won again, extending his lead to 1.5 points. With only two rounds remaining, it is very unlikely that anyone will be able to catch up.

3rd FIDE Grand Prix - Round 8

Tomashevsky won again and reestablished his full point lead. Meanwhile, Jobava continued his recovery by beating Svidler.

3rd FIDE Grand Prix - Round 7

It was not a good day for the top seeds - Grischuk fell to Mamedyarov, and Jakovenko defeated Giri. Tomashevsky continues to lead, but now Jakovenko is only half a point behind.

3rd FIDE Grand Prix - Round 6

Tomashevsky maintains his lead. Svidler rebounded with a win over Andreikin, while Grischuk lost to Radjabov.

3rd FIDE Grand Prix - Round 5

Tomashevsky continues to lead by a full point.

3rd FIDE Grand Prix - Round 4

Tomashevsky won again and leads by one point after four rounds.

Zurich Chess Challenge - Round 5

All the games were drawn, so Anand clinched first place in the classical tournament. As before, there is no forecast for the rapid section.

3rd FIDE Grand Prix - Round 3

Tomashevsky upset the top seed and is now in first place.

Zurich Chess Challenge - Round 4

Anand beat Nakamura, leapfrogging him in the standings. Since there is only one round remaining, Anand has excellent chances to win the tournament.

Zurich Chess Challenge - Round 3

Nakamura wins again and leads with only two rounds left to go.

3rd FIDE Grand Prix - Round 2

Kasimdzhanov recovered from his round 1 defeat by beating Mamedyarov.

3rd FIDE Grand Prix - Round 1

Grischuk, Giri, Mamedyarov, and Andreikin prevailed today and share the lead.

Zurich Chess Challenge - Round 2

Anand beat Aronian, who still seems to be in a slump. Aronian failed to exploit a promising position in round 1, and now he was unable to navigate the complications of today's game. Anand and Nakamura lead with 1.5/2.

3rd FIDE Grand Prix Chess Tournament

In case the Zurich tournament was not providing enough high level chess for us, there is also the 3rd FIDE Grand Prix. The favorites are Grischuk and Giri. The former has slowly climbed to 2nd place in the world rankings; the latter has been doing very well lately and may soon join him in the 2800 club. But the 12-player round robin features so many top players that we shouldn't be shocked if neither of them win.

Zurich Chess Challenge - Round 1

Nakamura defeated Caruana, putting a dent in the latter's winning chances. As before, the forecast only applies to the classical games in the tournament.

Zurich Chess Challenge 2015

The format is a 6-player round robin featuring Caruana, Anand, Kramnik, Aronian, Nakamura, and Karjakin. Several of the players - Caruana, Anand, and Aronian - have been shedding rating points recently. This could be an opportunity for them to recover.

The forecast only applies to the classical games; I don't have much confidence in the model's ability to predict what will happen in the rapid and blitz tournament. Though FIDE's rapid ratings have been stabilizing, there is still the question of how to estimate the draw rate. There is not a whole lot of data on rapid and blitz games, so any draw rate models for those games would have to be very simple.

GRENKE Chess Classic 2015 - Round 7

Carlsen and Naiditsch tied for first by drawing their last round games. Caruana missed a golden opportunity to join them at the top when he missed a win against Baramidze. Anand had a very poor event and finished with a loss to Adams.

GRENKE Chess Classic 2015 - Round 6

Anand rebounded by beating Baramidze; the rest of the games were drawn.

In the last round, the key games will be Carlsen - Barcot and Naiditsch - Aronian. Caruana has a decent shot at 1st place; he is trailing by only half a point and will be playing the bottom seed, Baramidze, who has been struggling. Adams can win only under very unlikely conditions. He has to beat Anand and hope that both Carlsen and Naiditsch lose - though even that won't be enough if Caruana prevails against Baramidze.

GRENKE Chess Classic - Round 5

The duel between the World Champion and the bottom seed ended predictably; in the other decisive game, Aronian beat Anand. Naiditsch and Carlsen are tied for first in the standings.

GRENKE Chess Classic - Round 4

Carlsen and Naiditsch won today, boosting their chances in the forecast.

Meanwhile in Gibralter, Nakamura won clear 1st after a draw in the last round.

Gibraltar Chess Tournament - Last round forecast

As I've discussed earlier, simulating a large Swiss system tournament requires a lot more computation than a small round robin. There are many more games to simulate, and the pairings are contingent on the outcomes of all the games. Because of these issues, I usually don't issue forecasts for Swiss system tournaments such as the one in Gibraltar. But in the very last round, only a handful of games matter. In that case, it is easy to calculate the probabilities by hand.

The current standings:

1. Nakamura (2776): 8.0/9
2. Howell (2670): 7.5/9
3-6.Vitiugov (2735): 7.0/9
       Harikrishna (2723): 7.0/9
       Yifan (2673): 7.0/9
       Bachmann (2629): 7.0/9

In the final round, Nakamura faces Harikrishna on Board 1. The other key games are Yifan - Howell on Board 2 and Vitiugov - Bachmann on Board 3. Nakamura is almost guaranteed at least a share of first place; the only way things could go wrong is if he loses and Howell wins.

Nakamura wins clear 1st: 74.7407%
Nakamura wins or ties for 1st: 97.2122%
Howell wins clear 1st: 2.7878%

Alternatively, Howell could share 1st if (1) he wins while Nakamura draws or (2) if he draws and Nakamura loses.

Howell wins or ties for first: 22.3475%

The other players have fewer chances. They need to win their game, have Nakamura lose, and also have Howell not win. Harikrishna has the best chance since he is playing Nakamura.

Yifan wins or ties for first: 2.9118%
Harikrishna wins or ties for first: 11.5728%
Vitiugov wins or ties for first: 4.47099%
Bachmann wins or ties for first: 1.04583%

GRENKE Chess Classic 2015 - Round 3

The probabilities swung wildly today, as Naiditsch upset Carlsen. Aronian lost to Caruana while Adams beat Baramidze.

GRENKE Chess Classic 2015 - Round 2

Carlsen defeated Adams while all of the other games in the tournament ended in draws. When we also consider that Carlsen's rating towers over that of his rivals, we see that he has excellent chances to win the tournament.

GRENKE Chess Classic 2015 - Round 1

The 8-player round robin opened with 4 draws, so the forecast from before the event was nearly unchanged.

The forecast before the event started:

The forecast after Round 1: