Zurich Chess Challenge 2015

The format is a 6-player round robin featuring Caruana, Anand, Kramnik, Aronian, Nakamura, and Karjakin. Several of the players - Caruana, Anand, and Aronian - have been shedding rating points recently. This could be an opportunity for them to recover.

The forecast only applies to the classical games; I don't have much confidence in the model's ability to predict what will happen in the rapid and blitz tournament. Though FIDE's rapid ratings have been stabilizing, there is still the question of how to estimate the draw rate. There is not a whole lot of data on rapid and blitz games, so any draw rate models for those games would have to be very simple.