As I've discussed earlier, simulating a large Swiss system tournament requires a lot more computation than a small round robin. There are many more games to simulate, and the pairings are contingent on the outcomes of all the games. Because of these issues, I usually don't issue forecasts for Swiss system tournaments such as the one in Gibraltar. But in the very last round, only a handful of games matter. In that case, it is easy to calculate the probabilities by hand.
The current standings:
1. Nakamura (2776): 8.0/9
2. Howell (2670): 7.5/9
3-6.Vitiugov (2735): 7.0/9
Harikrishna (2723): 7.0/9
Yifan (2673): 7.0/9
Bachmann (2629): 7.0/9
In the final round, Nakamura faces Harikrishna on Board 1. The other key games are Yifan - Howell on Board 2 and Vitiugov - Bachmann on Board 3. Nakamura is almost guaranteed at least a share of first place; the only way things could go wrong is if he loses and Howell wins.
Nakamura wins clear 1st: 74.7407%
Nakamura wins or ties for 1st: 97.2122%
Howell wins clear 1st: 2.7878%
Alternatively, Howell could share 1st if (1) he wins while Nakamura draws or (2) if he draws and Nakamura loses.
Howell wins or ties for first: 22.3475%
The other players have fewer chances. They need to win their game, have Nakamura lose, and also have Howell not win. Harikrishna has the best chance since he is playing Nakamura.
Yifan wins or ties for first: 2.9118%
Harikrishna wins or ties for first: 11.5728%
Vitiugov wins or ties for first: 4.47099%
Bachmann wins or ties for first: 1.04583%
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