Showdown in St. Louis Chess Forecast

Tomorrow the Showdown in St. Louis begins. The first part of the tournament is a 4-player double round robin. The average rating is only slightly lower than the World Championship; the players are Nakamura, Caruana, and two former world champions: Anand and Topalov. Caruana's 2823 rating makes him the favorite. One caveat: the "classical" 4-player round robin has a time control of G/60 with a 5 second delay. This is more like a blend of classical and rapid in my view. The model can't account for this since there are hardly any games played at this time control at the top levels. I don't have a forecast for the rapid or the blitz tournaments. The vast majority of the games in my database were played at classical time controls, so forecasting blitz or rapid involves making predictions with little data to guide you.

Methodology

My forecast for the World Championship match will be up soon.