The short answer: a 4-game rapid match. However, it becomes more difficult to forecast the results. As I mentioned earlier, there are far fewer rapid games in most databases. When I was looking at the Anand - Carlsen rematch, I assembled a small database and attempted to make a forecast. Bear in mind that there is substantial uncertainty here. Carlsen and Karjakin have established rapid ratings of 2894 and 2818, respectively. I estimated their chances in each game using an ordered logit. The forecast for the rapid tiebreaks (if they become necessary):
Carlsen wins: 64.5675%
Drawn: 21.35%
Karjakin wins: 14.0825%
Carlsen is still the clear favorite; a gap of 76 Elo is not easily overcome. If the match is still tied, then they will play a blitz match. I don't have a forecast for that.
The original forecast for the entire match, including rapid tiebreaks if necessary (new model):
Carlsen wins: 85.10%
Drawn: 2.1%
Karjakin wins: 12.80%
We know that the first game of the match ended in a draw, so after revising the above forecast, we get:
Carlsen wins: 83.52%
Drawn: 2.37%
Karjakin wins: 14.11%
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