Caruana greatly boosted his chances by defeating Mamedyarov today. He is tied with Carlsen at 5.5/9 while the rest are at least a full point behind. Thus, the Carlsen-Caruana game will be decisive.
Carlsen wins clear 1st: 43%
Carlsen wins or ties for 1st: 84%
Caruana wins clear 1st: 16%
Caruana wins or ties for first: 57%
Everyone else: 0% chance of winning 1st place
Carlsen will have the advantage of the white pieces, which these estimates do not account for. But there is also a strong incentive for both players to avoid risks, so the estimated draw rate may be too low.
No comments:
Post a Comment