2014 Norway Chess Tournament - Round 5

Kramnik leapfrogged Caruana in the standings today. Carlsen scored his first win, triumphing over Aronian. The last decisive game was Giri's victory over Topalov. Topalov seems to be struggling lately; in this tournament as well as in the Candidates, he has excellent opening preparation but then loses his thread in the middlegame. In my ignorant, 1900-player opinion, he may be spending too much effort on opening training. The latest forecast, based on 20,000 simulations:

Currently Kramnik is in the lead.