London Chess Classic

The London Chess Classic begins soon. Despite the absence of Carlsen and Karjakin, the field is quite strong. Caruana is the top seed, and with a good result, he might even overtake Carlsen on the rating list.

Methodology

World Chess Championship - Game 11

"Draw" is now the favorite in the match. Carlsen gets one last shot with the White pieces; if it is a draw, then there will be a 4 game rapid tiebreaker.

World Chess Championship - Game 10

Carlsen wins, and his chances rebound in the forecast. In the next few days, I will be at a chess tournament and away from my work computer, which has the software for running the simulations. After Game 11, there will be just one game left, so I can work out the probabilities manually. I'm planning on posting the numbers, but there won't be a nice graph until later.

World Chess Championship - Game 9

Carlsen certainly took risks, but he was the only one who seemed to be in danger. After this draw, Karjakin's chances continue to improve. The model gives a lot of respect to Carlsen's rating, but this will be a daunting challenge even for him; he trails by 1 point with 3 games to go.

World Chess Championship - Game 8

This was a game-changer: Carlsen lost with White. There are still 4 games left, so he has opportunities to close the gap. But his chances are more in doubt then ever before.

World Chess Championship - Game 7

At this point, draws with White no longer help Karjakin's chances. It's now a 5-game match in which Carlsen has an extra White.

World Chess Championship - Game 6

A short draw.

World Chess Championship - Game 5

Each time Karjakin draws with Black, his chances improve.

World Chess Championship - Game 4

Another long game ended in a draw, so Karjakin's chanced ticked upwards.

Every time Karjakin holds a draw, his chances improve. They grow by a larger amount when he draws with Black. In a shorter match, an upset is more likely. Here's why. In a long match, the underdog has to beat the odds several times in order to win the title. Beating the odds in a single game may suffice in a short match. After 4 draws, the World Championship is now effectively an 8-game match. And every game in which Karjakin maintains a tied score effectively shortens the match.

World Chess Championship - Game 3

Karjakin was under heavy pressure, but he managed to defend and hold a draw.

World Chess Championship - Round 2

Karjakin's chances inched upwards after he drew Game 2.

What happens if the World Championship match is drawn?

The short answer: a 4-game rapid match. However, it becomes more difficult to forecast the results. As I mentioned earlier, there are far fewer rapid games in most databases. When I was looking at the Anand - Carlsen rematch, I assembled a small database and attempted to make a forecast. Bear in mind that there is substantial uncertainty here. Carlsen and Karjakin have established rapid ratings of 2894 and 2818, respectively. I estimated their chances in each game using an ordered logit. The forecast for the rapid tiebreaks (if they become necessary):

Carlsen wins: 64.5675%
Drawn: 21.35%
Karjakin wins: 14.0825%

Carlsen is still the clear favorite; a gap of 76 Elo is not easily overcome. If the match is still tied, then they will play a blitz match. I don't have a forecast for that.

The original forecast for the entire match, including rapid tiebreaks if necessary (new model):
Carlsen wins: 85.10%
Drawn: 2.1%
Karjakin wins: 12.80%

We know that the first game of the match ended in a draw, so after revising the above forecast, we get:

Carlsen wins: 83.52%
Drawn: 2.37%
Karjakin wins: 14.11%

2016 World Chess Championship - Game 1

Carlsen drew with White, unsuccessfully trying to squeeze something out of nothing in the endgame. A strength of the new statistical model is that it adjusts for whether a player had Black or White. Drawing with Black boosts Karjakin's chances.

Carlsen wins: 76.385%
Drawn match: 11.0575%
Karjakin wins: 12.5575%

2016 World Chess Championship

The World Chess Championship begins tomorrow in New York City. Magnus Carlsen (2853) and Sergey Karjakin (2772) will face off in a 12-game match. The Norwegian is the favorite due to his extraordinary rating; 81 Elo points separate him from the challenger. However, short matches are prone to upsets. I'll spare you from my usual rant that the match is not long enough.

I ran 40,000 simulations in my standard statistical model. The methodology link below explains how it works. Basically, I estimated the probability of a draw from a large database. Then I plugged that into Elo's formulas to find the probability of a win. Repeat for 12 games:

Carlsen wins: 82.795%
Draw: 8.595%
Karjakin wins: 8.61%

Methodology

Drawn matches are resolved by rapid games. These are hard to predict since (1) there is not such an abundance of data on rapid games. There is a handful of top rapid tournaments each year, but that is nothing compared to my 1 million+ game database of classical games. The second reason? Because rapid tournaments are fairly scarce, the rapid ratings from FIDE might not be entirely reliable.

We are very excited to introduce a new statistical model. The older one relied in part on Elo's theoretical formulas; this one is entirely data-driven. (It's an ordered logit in which the independent variables are a 10th degree polynomial of year, white's rating, and black's rating, in case you were wondering. Not entirely sure how to express that in plain English). The results after 40,000 simulations:

Carlsen wins: 78.74%
Draw: 9.8425%
Karjakin wins: 11.4175%

Karjakin's chances are slightly better here. The probability of a draw in each game is nearly the same in both models (Old: 48% New: 46%). The main factor is Carlsen's expected score, i.e., how many points per game he will score on average. Elo's formula yields an expected score of 64%. In the data, it seems to be closer to 60%. In either case, Carlsen is heavily favored to win. It's hard being the underdog when you're rating is 81 points less - even in a short match.

Showdown in St. Louis Chess Forecast

Tomorrow the Showdown in St. Louis begins. The first part of the tournament is a 4-player double round robin. The average rating is only slightly lower than the World Championship; the players are Nakamura, Caruana, and two former world champions: Anand and Topalov. Caruana's 2823 rating makes him the favorite. One caveat: the "classical" 4-player round robin has a time control of G/60 with a 5 second delay. This is more like a blend of classical and rapid in my view. The model can't account for this since there are hardly any games played at this time control at the top levels. I don't have a forecast for the rapid or the blitz tournaments. The vast majority of the games in my database were played at classical time controls, so forecasting blitz or rapid involves making predictions with little data to guide you.

Methodology

My forecast for the World Championship match will be up soon.

2016 Russian Chess Superfinal

The Russian Chess Superfinal began a few days ago. The top seed is Alexander Grischuk. He rose all the way to 2800 a few years ago, but then fell back to earth; now he is barely above 2750. We will have to see if his rating recovers in this tournament.

Methodology

2016 Tal Memorial

The Tal Memorial begins soon. I have been playing over his games during the last year or so, and I am now definitely a Tal fan! My style has changed. Alas, the great World Champion died far too soon. From what I have been able to piece together, it seems that the tournament will be a 10-player round robin. Some big names are missing, but on the other hand, that lets us see some players who aren't usually invited to top round robins.

Methodology

2016 Sinquefield Cup Pictures

The Kingside Diner is next to the chess club. You can see that they take chess seriously there. Also, there is grandmaster commentary in one of the rooms. The GMs even take questions from the audience.

*********************************************************************************

Anish Giri hard at work, trying to squeeze out a win against Wesley So. But the American's defenses held.

Wesley So checks out Liren - Anand

*********************************************************************************

Nakamura sacrificed his queen against Topalov. The game was very imbalanced, but eventually it ended in a draw.

*********************************************************************************

Former World Champion Vishy Anand contemplates his next move against Ding Liren

GM Ding Liren

*********************************************************************************

Peter Svidler got the upper hand against MVL, but the Frenchman managed to hold.

*********************************************************************************

After the game, Chess.com interviewed Peter Svidler

You can watch the interview here.

A game from the US Open

[Date "????.??.??"] [White "Wilson, Matthew"] [Black "Watson, IM John"] [Result "0-1"] [FEN "rnbqkbnr/pppppppp/8/8/8/8/PPPPPPPP/RNBQKBNR w KQkq - 0 1"] 1.e4 e6 2.d4 d5 3.Nc3 Nf6 4.e5 Nfd7 5.f4 Be7 { This unusual move order threw me off. Almost everyone plays 5...c5 here. } 6.Nf3 O-O 7.Ne2 c5 8.c3 Nc6 9.g3 cxd4 10.cxd4 f6 11.Bg2 Qb6 12.Qb3 Bb4+ { Something has gone wrong for White. At the very least, I lose castling privileges after 13...Bxd2+, since 14.Nxd2 drops the d4-pawn. } 13.Bd2 fxe5 14.fxe5 Rxf3 15.Bxf3 Nxd4 16.Nxd4 Bxd2+ 17.Kxd2 Qxd4+ 18.Kc2 Qf2+ 19.Kd1 { At first glance, it seems like Black is dominating. But after... } 19...Nxe5 20.Be2 Bd7 21.Rf1 Qxh2 22.Rc1 { ...White is suddenly coordinated! } 22...Bc6 23.Qe3 Ng6 24.Qxe6+ Kh8 25.Bd3 { Over the next several moves, a key tactic is 25...Re8? 26.Rxc6! Rxe6 27.Rc8+ with mate to follow. } 25...Qh5+ 26.g4 Qh3 27.Kd2 Qh2+ 28.Qe2 { Is 28.Kd1 better? } 28...Qd6 29.Rce1 { After the game, John suggested 29.Bxg6 as an improvement, since it stops ...Nf4 } 29...Qb4+ 30.Kc2 Nf4 31.Qe7 { A blunder. I was counting on 31...Qxe7 32.Rxe7 Nxd3. Now 33.Kxd3? Bb5+ is bad, but my plan was 33.Rff7! and the doubled rooks on the 7th should provide enough counterplay. But John finds a better reply. After the game, we agreed that 31.Qd2 was superior. } 31...Nxd3 32.Qxb4 Nxb4+ 33.Kc3 a5 34.Re7 Nxa2+ 35.Kb3 Nb4 36.Rff7 Rg8 { It's over } 37.g5 d4 38.Rf2 Nd5 39.Re5 Rd8 40.Rh2 Be8 41.Rf2 Kg8 42.Ref5 Bg6 43.Re5 Bf7 44.Ka3 b5 45.b3 Nc3 46.b4 d3 *

2016 Sinquefield Cup

The 2016 Sinquefield Cup starts in a few days. Even though Kramnik and Carlsen will be missing, the field is still extremely strong. I'll be able to see some of the games in person - pictures will be posted. The forecast below is based on 1000 simulations rather than the usual 20,000. This is because I'm on a slow laptop (I'm out of town for the US Open).

2016 Karpov Poikovsky Tournament

The tournament is a 10-player round robin, featuring Wojtaszek and Andreikin as the top seeds.

Methodology

2016 Bilbao Masters

The 6-player double round-robin features both Carlsen and Karjakin; these will be games worth watching closely.

Methodology

2016 Dortmund

The Sparkassen Chess Meeting begins soon in Dortmund. It features two 2800 players, Kramnik and Caruana. Also playing is Maxime Vachier-Lagrave (2798); perhaps he will also join the 2800 club.

Methodology

2016 Capablanca Memorial

The 2016 Capablanca Memorial begins in a few days. The event that I'll be forecasting is the elite tournament, a 6-player double round robin. The top seed is Dominguez, but Ivanchuk should not be counted out.

Methodology

2016 Gashimov Memorial

The 2016 Gashimov Memorial begins soon. The top seeds are Caruana and Giri, though many will also be watching Karjakin's performance.

Methodology

I might not be consistent with updating the forecast, since I'm considering going to the Chicago Open this weekend.

2016 Norway Chess Tournament - Round 8

Aronian beat Carlsen, joining him in first place.

Methodology

2016 Norway Chess Tournament - Round 7

Carlsen defeated Kramnik in a typical Carlsen game. Now he leads the field by a full point.

Methodology

2016 Norway Chess Tournament Round 6 and the US Chess Championship

Caruana defeated Chandra to take clear first place in the US Chess Championship.

Meanwhile in Norway, Carlsen continues to lead the field by half a point.

Methodology

2016 US Chess Championship - Round 10

A few games are still in progress, but the leaders have finished their battles. Nakamura won and now trails Caruana by half a point. Caruana is the huge favorite since he is playing the bottom seed in the last round. Robson has some very remote chances: Caruana would have to lose to Chandra, while neither Nakamura nor So would win.

Caruana: 7.5
So: 7
Nakamura: 7
Robson: 6.5

Methodology

2016 US Chess Championship - Round 9

Caruana checkmated Lenderman, taking clear first place with 2 rounds to go.

Methodology

2016 US Chess Championship - Round 8

Caruana and So drew their games. Meanwhile, Nakamura beat Shabalov and now trails by just half a point.

Methodology

2016 Norway Chess Tournament - Round 4

All the games were drawn in Round 4.

Methodology