World Chess Championship - Game 4

Another long game ended in a draw, so Karjakin's chanced ticked upwards.

Every time Karjakin holds a draw, his chances improve. They grow by a larger amount when he draws with Black. In a shorter match, an upset is more likely. Here's why. In a long match, the underdog has to beat the odds several times in order to win the title. Beating the odds in a single game may suffice in a short match. After 4 draws, the World Championship is now effectively an 8-game match. And every game in which Karjakin maintains a tied score effectively shortens the match.