There is a 64.36% chance that Magnus wins, a 20.61% chance that Fabiano wins, and a 15.03% chance that the match is drawn. However, Magnus would be the heavy favorite in any rapid or blitz tiebreaks.
Wednesday, March 28, 2018
The World Chess Championship
Congratulations to Fabiano Caruana for winning the Candidates Tournament. He will face Magnus Carlsen for the World Championship match. In recent years, the match has lasted 12 games. If we use the players' live ratings, this would be the forecast. I will update it shortly before the event with their latest ratings.
There is a 64.36% chance that Magnus wins, a 20.61% chance that Fabiano wins, and a 15.03% chance that the match is drawn. However, Magnus would be the heavy favorite in any rapid or blitz tiebreaks.
There is a 64.36% chance that Magnus wins, a 20.61% chance that Fabiano wins, and a 15.03% chance that the match is drawn. However, Magnus would be the heavy favorite in any rapid or blitz tiebreaks.
Thursday, March 8, 2018
Candidates Tournament
Here is the forecast for the Candidates Tournament. It is an 8-player double round robin. The winner gets to face Magnus Carlsen.
Methodology
What is the probability that one of the Americans wins? The chance that one of them wins clear first is easy to find: just add the probabilities in the last column. But doing that for the ties would be incorrect (when they tie with each other, that would be counted twice). The probability that at least one of the Americans wins or ties for first is 34.38%.
Methodology
What is the probability that one of the Americans wins? The chance that one of them wins clear first is easy to find: just add the probabilities in the last column. But doing that for the ties would be incorrect (when they tie with each other, that would be counted twice). The probability that at least one of the Americans wins or ties for first is 34.38%.
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