Candidates Tournament

Here is the forecast for the Candidates Tournament. It is an 8-player double round robin. The winner gets to face Magnus Carlsen.



Methodology

What is the probability that one of the Americans wins? The chance that one of them wins clear first is easy to find: just add the probabilities in the last column. But doing that for the ties would be incorrect (when they tie with each other, that would be counted twice). The probability that at least one of the Americans wins or ties for first is 34.38%.