Carlsen gained rating points in the Gashimov Memorial. Meanwhile, Caruana climbed to 2822. The latest forecast for the World Championship is based on their new ratings:
How did you estimate the draw frequency? 18% seems awfully low for players at this level.
For example, the majority (18/32) of their prior matches with standard timing have ended in a draw. If the "true" average draw frequency were 18%, the probability of >=18 draws in 32 matches would be < 10^-7.
Wow, great!
ReplyDeleteHow did you estimate the draw frequency? 18% seems awfully low for players at this level.
ReplyDeleteFor example, the majority (18/32) of their prior matches with standard timing have ended in a draw. If the "true" average draw frequency were 18%, the probability of >=18 draws in 32 matches would be < 10^-7.
18% is the probability of a 6-6 tie in the whole match; the probability of a draw in each individual game is much higher.
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