2015 Russian Championship Superfinal - Round 6

Vitiugov joined Artemiev and Tomashevsky at the top.

Methodology

***

Meanwhile, some exciting new developments are coming soon to e4stat. The current forecasts do not account for whether a player has white or black; I am on the brink of being able to do that. There was just one last step to complete by the time I left the University of Oregon. Unfortunately, after leaving I no longer had access to their statistical software. In a few days, I'll be able to finish the project now that I can work on Truman State University's computers.

I have also been collecting data on how successful (or unsuccessful) my forecasts are. More discussion on that coming soon.

The Sinquefield Cup is a little more than a week away. St. Louis is close enough that I will get to watch some of the games in person. Pictures will be posted.

2015 Russian Championship Superfinal - Round 5

Artemiev and Tomashevsky continue to lead.

Methodology

2015 Russian Championship Superfinal - Round 4

Artemiev: the next Lysyj? You may recall the Lysyj was the surprise winner of last year's superfinal. In Round 4, little-known GM Artemiev won his game and is now tied for first with Tomashevsky. However, the model thinks that Tomashevsky is the favorite due to his higher rating.

Methodology

2015 Russian Championship Superfinal - Round 3

Tomashevsky takes the lead with a victory over Lysyj.

Methodology

2015 Russian Championship Superfinal - Round 2

Khairullen, Tomashevsky, and Vitiugov won today, joining Karjakin in 1st place.

Methodology

2015 Russian Championship Superfinal - Round 1

All of the games were drawn, with the exception of Karjakin's victory over Khismatullin.

Methodology

2015 Russian Championship Superfinal

The Russian Championship Superfinal starts soon. Even though Grischuk and Kramnik are absent, the field is quite strong. I feel a bit sorry for Russian super-GMs; there is so much chess talent there that some players in the 2700+ club are hardly known at all. The top seed is Dmitry Jakovenko - rated a formidable 2759, ranked #12 in the world...and yet, he is rather obscure, since discussion of top Russian players tends to focus on Kramnik, Grischuk, and Karjakin. Svidler and Motylev have been around long enough that we are familiar with them. And then there is Tomashevsky, who almost won the FIDE Grand Prix. But strong players such as Khairullen (2655), Artemiev (2671), and Bukavshin (2655) are not well known. Last year, we were surprised when Lysyj won the tournament. His rating is now 2673; we will see if he continues to impress. The forecast:

Methodology