World Chess Championship - Game 9

Carlsen certainly took risks, but he was the only one who seemed to be in danger. After this draw, Karjakin's chances continue to improve. The model gives a lot of respect to Carlsen's rating, but this will be a daunting challenge even for him; he trails by 1 point with 3 games to go.

World Chess Championship - Game 8

This was a game-changer: Carlsen lost with White. There are still 4 games left, so he has opportunities to close the gap. But his chances are more in doubt then ever before.

World Chess Championship - Game 7

At this point, draws with White no longer help Karjakin's chances. It's now a 5-game match in which Carlsen has an extra White.

World Chess Championship - Game 6

A short draw.

World Chess Championship - Game 5

Each time Karjakin draws with Black, his chances improve.

World Chess Championship - Game 4

Another long game ended in a draw, so Karjakin's chanced ticked upwards.

Every time Karjakin holds a draw, his chances improve. They grow by a larger amount when he draws with Black. In a shorter match, an upset is more likely. Here's why. In a long match, the underdog has to beat the odds several times in order to win the title. Beating the odds in a single game may suffice in a short match. After 4 draws, the World Championship is now effectively an 8-game match. And every game in which Karjakin maintains a tied score effectively shortens the match.

World Chess Championship - Game 3

Karjakin was under heavy pressure, but he managed to defend and hold a draw.