Grenke Chess Classic

The World Champion and the Challenger will both play in this 10-player round robin. The pre-tournament forecast:

Below is the forecast updated after Round 2. Vitiugov opened with 2.0/2, but Carlsen remains the favorite.

Methodology

GM Var Akobian Vanquishes E4stat

Every US Chess Championship, I remind my readers that Var and I played in a 2010 blitz tournament. This time, the battleground was a rapid tournament (G15+2) at the St. Louis Chess Club. He improved his score against me to 3-0. But this time, I put up a fight.

Click this link if the game does not display properly

[Event "Saturday Night Special G15+2"] [Site "St. Louis"] [Date "2018.03.31"] [Round "3"] [White "Akobian, Varuzhan"] [Black "Wilson, Matthew"] [Result "1-0"] [ECO "A61"] [WhiteElo "2725"] [BlackElo "2083"] [Annotator "Wilson,Matthew"] [PlyCount "65"] 1. d4 Nf6 2. c4 e6 3. Nf3 c5 4. d5 exd5 5. cxd5 d6 6. Nc3 g6 7. Bf4 a6 8. a4 Qe7 9. e3 Bg7 10. Be2 O-O 11. O-O Nbd7 12. Nd2 Rb8 13. Nc4 Ne8 14. e4 {The pawn is immune} Ne5 15. Nb6 ({ I had taken a long time on the previous move because I was concerned about} 15. Nxe5 Bxe5 16. Bxe5 Qxe5 17. f4 {White's center is on the move and Black has lost much of his dynamic potential after trading off his dark-squared bishop. But then I saw 16...dxe5 and realized that Black is okay. The knight will be transferred to d6, where it will block White's passer and support ...b5.}) 15... Nf6 16. Qd2 Nfd7 17. Nxc8 Rfxc8 18. Rae1 c4 19. Bg5 f6 20. Be3 Nc5 21. Bxc5 Rxc5 22. f4 Nd7 {The right square for the knight, so that I can meet...} 23. Bg4 {with...} Nf8 24. Re2 { Stockfish thinks this move blows White's advantage} b5 25. axb5 axb5 26. Re3 Re8 27. Kh1 {I don't remember if he played Re3 before Kh1 or after Kh1, but this position definitely occurred.} h5 {I was trying to make 27...f5 work, but I wasn't happy with 28.Bf3. So I forced the bishop to commit itself. Stocky isn't fond of this move. In my defense, I was very low on time.} 28. Bh3 Bh6 29. Ree1 b4 $6 {I was down to around 10 seconds and had to make a move. But this gets Black in trouble.} 30. Na4 Rb5 31. Qd4 $1 { And it's not easy to hold onto all my pawns. I lunged forward:} f5 $2 (31... c3 32. bxc3 Bg7 $1 {is actually playable (Stockfish), but you don't see these resources when you're down to 10 seconds!}) 32. Qxc4 Rbb8 33. e5 { and Black soon collapsed} 1-0

Good luck in the US Championship, Var!

The World Chess Championship

Congratulations to Fabiano Caruana for winning the Candidates Tournament. He will face Magnus Carlsen for the World Championship match. In recent years, the match has lasted 12 games. If we use the players' live ratings, this would be the forecast. I will update it shortly before the event with their latest ratings.

Methodology

There is a 64.36% chance that Magnus wins, a 20.61% chance that Fabiano wins, and a 15.03% chance that the match is drawn. However, Magnus would be the heavy favorite in any rapid or blitz tiebreaks.

Candidates Tournament

Here is the forecast for the Candidates Tournament. It is an 8-player double round robin. The winner gets to face Magnus Carlsen.



Methodology

What is the probability that one of the Americans wins? The chance that one of them wins clear first is easy to find: just add the probabilities in the last column. But doing that for the ties would be incorrect (when they tie with each other, that would be counted twice). The probability that at least one of the Americans wins or ties for first is 34.38%.

E4stat loses to another GM...and defeats a future GM?

In the Jane Addams Memorial tournament in January, I played a GM at classical time controls for the very first time (the previous post was from a rapid tourney). I had opted to play in the Open section rather than the U2100; surprisingly, I managed to win my first two games and was tied for 1st going into Round 3. Then I faced GM Fidel Corrales Jimenez.

Click this link if the game does not display properly

[Event "Jane Addams Memorial"] [Site "Chicago"] [Date "2018.01.28"] [Round "3"] [White "Jimenez, GM Fidel"] [Black "Wilson, Matthew"] [Result "1-0"] [ECO "B41"] [WhiteElo "2592"] [BlackElo "2069"] [Annotator "Wilson,Matthew"] [PlyCount "75"] 1. e4 c5 2. Nf3 a6 3. c4 e6 4. Nc3 Qc7 5. d4 cxd4 6. Nxd4 Nf6 7. a3 b6 ({I wasn't entirely sure if} 7... Nxe4 8. Nxe4 Qe5 {worked or not; I remembered looking at something like this a long time ago. I decided to stick to the familiar Hedgehog.}) 8. Bd3 Nc6 9. Nf3 d6 10. O-O Be7 11. h3 O-O 12. Be3 Nb8 13. Rc1 Nbd7 14. b4 Bb7 15. Nd2 Rac8 16. f4 Rfe8 17. Qe2 Qb8 18. g4 g6 19. Qf2 Bc6 20. Nf3 Qa8 {He plunged into a deep think for more than 20 minutes. At least I made him work.} 21. e5 Ne4 $2 ({After the game, he showed me an incredible variation:} 21... dxe5 22. fxe5 Bxf3 23. exf6 Ne5 $3 {(the move I had missed)} 24. fxe7 Nxd3 25. Qh4 Qb7 $1 {He said that White is still better here - and Stockfish agrees - but this is much better than what happened in the game.}) 22. Bxe4 Bxe4 23. Nxe4 Qxe4 24. exd6 Bxd6 25. Rcd1 Bxf4 ({I had been counting on} 25... Rc6 26. b5 axb5 27. cxb5 Rc2 28. Qe1 Bc5 $1 29. Bxc5 Nxc5 {and somehow all the tactics have worked out in my favor. But White shouldn't focus solely on the pin. Too late, I realized that he can switch gears with 26.Rd4!, trapping the queen in the center of the board. And of course 25...Qc6 26.Qd2 loses. At least the text move wins 2 pawns for the piece.}) 26. Bxf4 Qxf4 27. Rxd7 Rxc4 {Give Black a chance to breathe, and ... Rec8 followed by ...Rc2 could be trouble. But the GM efficiently kills off any counterplay.} 28. Ng5 $1 {The knight is immune} Qxf2+ 29. Rxf2 f5 30. Nxh7 Rec8 31. Kg2 Rc3 32. Rfd2 Rc2 33. Rxc2 Rxc2+ 34. Kg3 Rc3+ {Is this counterplay?} 35. Kh4 Rxa3 36. Nf6+ Kf8 37. Kg5 {No, we're just getting mated} Rxh3 38. Kxg6 1-0

He's pretty good at chess.

But let's back up a round. Dimitar Mardov is just 9 years old, but he already has a mighty 2100 rating. Future GM? When I was that age, I had recently discovered that capturing stuff was good while getting captured was bad. The prodigy and the former non-prodigy clashed in Round 2.

[Event "Jane Addams Memorial"] [Site "Chicago"] [Date "2018.01.27"] [Round "2"] [White "Wilson, Matthew"] [Black "Mardov, Dimitar"] [Result "1-0"] [ECO "B42"] [WhiteElo "2069"] [BlackElo "2105"] [Annotator "Wilson,Matthew"] [PlyCount "115"] 1. e4 c5 2. Nf3 e6 3. d4 cxd4 4. Nxd4 a6 5. Bd3 Qc7 6. O-O d6 7. Qe2 Nf6 8. c4 Be7 9. Nc3 O-O 10. Be3 Nbd7 11. f4 Re8 12. Rac1 b6 13. b4 Bb7 14. Nb3 Rac8 15. a3 Qb8 16. Rfd1 Bd8 17. Nd2 Bc7 18. g4 g6 19. g5 Nh5 20. Qf2 Bc6 21. Be2 Ng7 22. Rf1 Qa8 23. Bd4 Qb8 24. Be3 {I had no intention of taking a draw by repetition. As usual in the Hedgehog, White has burned up a lot of time on the clock. On every move you have to check long variations with ...b5 and ...d5. By repeating the position, we get closer to the time control.} b5 $2 {A lot of books on the Hedgehog tell you that Black should try to play .. .b5. What they usually forget to tell you is that the pawn can become a weakness if the advance is played prematurely.} 25. cxb5 axb5 26. Nb3 { And there is no reply to the threat of 27.Nd4} Bb6 27. Bxb6 Nxb6 28. Bxb5 Bxb5 29. Nxb5 d5 30. e5 Nc4 31. a4 Nf5 32. N3d4 Ne7 33. Rc3 Red8 34. Ra1 Nc6 35. Nxc6 Rxc6 36. Qd4 Qb7 37. h4 Ra8 38. Rb3 Rca6 39. Nc3 Rb6 40. b5 Qc7 41. Rb4 Na5 42. Rc1 Qe7 43. Na2 Rab8 44. Qc5 Qxc5+ 45. Rxc5 Nc4 46. Kf2 Kf8 47. Ke2 Ke7 48. Nc1 Kd7 49. Nb3 Ra8 50. Nd2 Na5 51. Kd3 Nb7 52. Rc1 Na5 53. Rc3 Ra7 54. Nb3 Nc4 {I saw that Nd2 ...Na5 Nb3 ...Nc4 doesn't get me anywhere. But there is an exchange sacrifice that begs to be played.} 55. Rcxc4 $1 dxc4+ 56. Kxc4 Rb8 ({ The sacrifice is so natural that hardly any calculation is necessary. The only line I looked at was} 56... Rc7+ 57. Nc5+ $1) 57. b6 Raa8 58. Kb5 1-0

E4stat tied for 2nd place U2300, picking up 14 ratings points along the way. In a few weeks, we will be back to posting forecasts of top tournaments; the Candidates takes place in March.

GM clobbers e4stat

I went to a rapid tournament (G/15 +2) at the St. Louis Chess Club on Saturday. In the second round, I faced GM Alejandro Ramirez. Here's how you beat a 2000 player and make it look easy:

Click this link if the game does not display properly

[Event "Saturday Night Special"] [Site "St. Louis"] [Date "2018.01.20"] [Round "2"] [White "Ramirez, GM Alejandro"] [Black "Wilson, Matthew (e4stat)"] [Result "1-0"] [ECO "A30"] [WhiteElo "2572"] [BlackElo "2069"] [Annotator "Wilson,Matthew"] [PlyCount "74"] 1. c4 c5 2. g3 e6 3. Bg2 Nf6 4. Nf3 Nc6 5. b3 {This move order managed to confuse me. After 5.Nc3, I play 5...Qb6 to block d2-d4. But that makes less sense with a b2-bishop to prepare the pawn break. So I played flexibly, developing my bishop and castling and hoping he would commit his knight.} Be7 6. Bb2 O-O 7. O-O Qc7 {The queen doesn't belong on this square} 8. Nc3 a6 9. Rc1 Qb6 {After d4 ...cxd4, the c-file opens up and White has Nd5 tactics, so I move out of the potential pin} 10. e3 {White wants to recapture on d4 with a pawn. Then the threat of a d4-d5! pawn break causes Black headaches} Rd8 11. Qe2 d5 12. cxd5 exd5 13. Na4 Qa7 14. Bxf6 gxf6 {I thought that my weakened kingside wouldn't be much of an issue. That turned out to be wrong!} 15. d4 cxd4 16. Nxd4 Nxd4 17. exd4 Be6 18. Nc5 Bxc5 19. dxc5 Rac8 20. Qe3 {A strong move. White covers c5 and eyes the vulnerable Black kingside} d4 21. Qh6 Rxc5 22. Qxf6 Rd7 {I thought that the exchange of the passed c5-pawn for my doubled f-pawn favored me. The next move ends any such illusions.} 23. Be4 d3 24. Qh6 d2 {With the clock ticking down, I had a crazy idea: once he plays Bxh7+, there are no good discoveries!} 25. Bxh7+ Kh8 26. Rcd1 Qb8 {I was down to seconds and committed a horrible blunder, but Black is already busted} 27. Bg6+ Kg8 28. Bh7+ Kh8 29. Bb1+ Kg8 30. Qh7+ Kf8 31. Qh8+ Ke7 32. Qxb8 Bg4 33. Rxd2 Rxd2 34. Qf4 Rd1 35. Qxg4 Rxf1+ 36. Kxf1 Rc1+ 37. Kg2 Rxb1 {He held out his hand. I was unsure why - obviously he isn't resigning! Then I noticed that my flag had fallen} 1-0

In the next round, I punished a 1500 for playing too solidly in the Sveshnikov. It's absolutely necessary for Black to be energetic and create counterplay.

[Event "Saturday Night Special"] [Site "St. Louis"] [Date "2018.01.20"] [Round "3"] [White "Wilson, Matthew"] [Black "Soerensen, Morton"] [Result "1-0"] [ECO "B33"] [WhiteElo "2069"] [BlackElo "1542"] [Annotator "Wilson,Matthew"] [PlyCount "53"] 1. e4 c5 2. Nf3 Nc6 3. d4 cxd4 4. Nxd4 Nf6 5. Nc3 e5 6. Ndb5 d6 7. Bg5 a6 8. Na3 b5 9. Bxf6 gxf6 10. Nd5 Bg7 11. Bd3 O-O {11...Ne7 is the book move. Black must contest the d5-square} 12. O-O Be6 13. Qh5 {I like this move. Now Black can't take the d5-knight without dropping a piece.} Ne7 14. c4 b4 {Now White has complete control} 15. Nc2 {There's no need to get entangled in 15.Nxb4 Rb8 and ...Rxb2} a5 16. Rae1 Rb8 {Black can't create counterplay with ...f5. Also, he can't eliminate the monster on d5 since that would open up the b1-h7 diagonal} 17. Nce3 {This gets in the way of the rook lift I prepared earlier, but it does prevent Black from starting any counterplay with ...b4-b3. I avoided 17.b3 since then Black could potentially open up the queenside with ...a5-a4. After 17.Nce3, the queenside remains closed and there is very little that Black can do about White's grip on the rest of the board.} Ng6 18. Nf5 Bxd5 {A blunder in a difficult position} 19. exd5 Nf4 20. Qg4 Ng6 21. h4 {Winning material} Kh8 22. h5 Rg8 23. hxg6 fxg6 24. Nxg7 Rxg7 25. Qe2 {25.f4 allows ...Qb6+, which could be annoying. So first I drop back, intending to meet ...Qb6+ ideas with Qe3 or Qf2} f5 26. f4 e4 27. Bc2 {I don't remember the rest of the moves, but White eventually won} 1-0

Tata Steel 2018

The Tata Steel tournament begins in a few days. It is a 14-player round robin starring Magnus Carlsen and several other top players. The forecast:

Methodology