Kamsky, Lenderman, and Akobian tied for 1st place. In the playoff, Lenderman and Akobian will play an Armageddon game with the winner facing Kamsky in a 2 game rapid match. Clearly Kamsky has the best chances, since he only has to win 1 match to win the championship, while the Lenderman and Akobian have to win both matches. But beyond that I can't make a forecast, since there is so little data on Armageddon matches. Predicting the rapid match with Kamsky is also difficult since Akobian has no rapid FIDE rating. It would be possible to plug in his USCF quick rating (2612). However, I don't have a database of rapid games, so what draw percentage should the model assume?
The only forecast I can make is that Kamsky's chances are at least 50%. May the best player win.
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